Iraqi elections give Bush big boost in approval ratings: now 52%

[imenja]

Rasmussen lists Bush's approval rating at 52%. That is up from 43% on Jan. 22. He has suddenly removed earlier approval ratings and now lists only those from Jan. 28, when Bush polled at 46%.
He has also apparently returned to polling only "likely voters" rather than Americans at large. Likely voters rate Bush a few points higher than broader polls.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

"Tuesday February 01, 2005--Fifty-two percent (52%) of American adults approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove. These numbers are the President's best of 2005 and reflect a bounce from the weekend elections in Iraq.

This report is based upon a survey of American adults. During 2004, reports on the President Job Approval were based upon surveys of Likely Voters. Typically, a survey of Likely Voters would report a Job Approval rating 2-3 points higher than a survey of all adults.

On Election Day, the President's Job Approval was at 52%. During all of 2004, the President's Job Approval ranged from a high of 57% in early January to a low of 48% on May 17.

Rasmussen Reports updates the President's Job Approval ratings every day along with other measures of the political environment."

[cthrumatrix]

1. utter bullshit..... polls are a toll for the ignorant

[imenja]

2. everyone loved this poll

when it rated Bush at 44%. It was on the homepage of DU then. It's the same poll.

[FreedomAngel82]

42. It's not that much a boost really

from 44%. He just went up eight points. :shrug: So what? Still pretty low. A week after the election he had a raiting of 55%.

[stepnw1f]

3. Working Up DU Are We?

......

[Goldeneye]

4. That's the highest it will get.

If you aren't supporting him now, you will never support him. The media is throwing Bush Love Fest 2005 so the numbers are pumped up with all the election excitement. When they realize we're not pulling out, soldiers are still dying, Bush is trying to cut their health insurance...most of them will come back around.

[DeaconBlues]

5. when the American people see that the election did nothing to stop the

chaos in Iraq and killing of our troops, those numbers will go down again

[imenja]

6. no doubt true

This is a temporary bounce.

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Yep and it may drop even futrther once folks

realize just how much good this did...

Something abuot 1967... and Saigon...

No, don't say this is not starting to look like Nam all over again

[snippy]

7. Just a little honeymoon after his man date. n/t

[coloradodem2005]

9. Well Bush, here's your high water mark asshole.

You'd better enjoy it. Because it won't last. Not long at all.

[aquart]

10. Wow. He leaped to 52%.

So, do we have a pool for how long he can hold that magnificent number? What day it will fall? How far it will fall?

Who's giving odds?

[imenja]

12. It will drop 4-5 points within two weeks

That's my bet.

[OneTwentyoNine]

15. Yeah....BFD,pretty small bounce eh Chimp?? nt

[deadparrot]

11. Come on, it's not like we thought this wouldn't happen.

It's temporary--it'll probably stay up through the SOTU. Give it a couple weeks. By the beginning of March, it'll be in the 40s again.

[FreedomAngel82]

43. And when it gets down like that

he'll invoke Iraq again. In 2001-2004 he invoked 9/11, so why would Iraq be any different?

[robbedvoter]

13. When are you going to stop buying the numbers game?

You believed W won, even if the next day only 44% approved of him, now you are ready to believe that Murikans give a damn if darkies have an election or not! :shrug:

[imenja]

21. If you're going to hold a grudge, at least get it right

I did not say that I knew Bush to have won the election legitimately. What I maintained is that we needed evidence that would persuade a court, and I didn't think we had it. As more evidence came out, I became increasingly skeptical about the outcome of the election. The evidence, however, was never sufficient to change the outcome of the presidential race. I am a person who forms political views based on evidence, not simply because I wish something to be true.

I also argued that people needed to quit waiting for John Kerry to appear as a messiah and rescue our political system. Rather, that we needed to work to reform the election system right away. Quite unfortunately, it turned out I was right on that. Bush was inaugurated.

The 44% poll I posted was not the next day, or even within a couple of weeks, of the posts in which I raised concerns about what the extant evidence on election problems proved. At any rate, I did not make up either of these polls. I am simply reporting them. You don't like the news, but there is nothing I can do about that. It's odd how you proclaim here that numbers don't matter, when you must have confidence in exit polling to believe so strongly that Kerry won the election. You can't have it both ways.

I despise simple-minded thought. Your insistence on interpreting my responses within the narrow political parameters that evidently shape your own worldview demonstrates a complete miscomprehension of my ideas. For some, politics is religious, based on blind faith rather than evidence and reason. I will not waste time waiting for the Second Coming of John Kerry to save this country as some on DU have done. I believe that we as the people need to take action to bring about change. Animosity over differences of opinion, such as you express here, do nothing to further progressive causes. If we can't unite, the Republicans win.

[Vektor]

14. I still don't approve...

This hardly nullifies all of his blunders, and his total incompetence.

[On Par]

16. History Repeating Itself.... Remember 1967?

On September 4,1967 the New York Times published an upbeat story on presidential elections held by the South Vietnamese puppet regime at the height of the Vietnam war. Under the heading "US encouraged by Vietnam vote: Officials cite 83% turnout despite Vietcong terror", the paper reported that the Americans had been "surprised and heartened" by the size of the turnout "despite a Vietcong terrorist campaign to disrupt the voting". A successful election, it went on, "has long been seen as the keystone in President Johnson's policy of encouraging the growth of constitutional processes in South Vietnam".

The echoes of this weekend's propaganda about Iraq's elections are so close as to be uncanny.

Missing in all of this. The Media.

OP

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Vektor]

18. Hi, WrtMandamus.

Welcome to DU!
:hi:

[two gun sid]

19. Yes, and 72% of Iraqis voted.

[w4rma]

22. At most 72% of 10 or 20% of Iraqis voted for the folks who would write a

constitution, not for their government.

[imenja]

23. 8 million voters

or about 57% of the population over 15, if we are to believe the Iraqi election organization's numbers.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

24. does that include those living abroad?

or is that 8 mill in Iraq itself?

[imenja]

26. no, I forgot that

Apparently 1.5 million voters from abroad. Awfully high, isn't it?
So that's 6.5 million in Iraq, out of 15.2 million (population over 15), which comes to 42.9%. Voting age is probably 18so the percentage of voters would be higher. 40.3% of the population is under 15, and the median age is 19.2. It's a young population. I suppose that makes turnout somewhere near 60%, assuming the voter turnout numbers are accurate, which they may not be.

Pop. figures from the CIA World Factbook.
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/iz.html#People

I read the voter turnout numbers in the NYTimes but I don't have the link handy.

[ultraist]

29. AMAZING TURNOUT! That's nearly as good as our last turnout in the US!

WHAT a success! Especially considering there was a shortage of ballots that denied tens of thousands votes, serious security issues, and voter intimidation, yet they pulled a 57% turnout. That's almost hard to believe for some reason. :eyes:

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/B410976F-73A0-496F-A62A-CB01C3FAE6C5.htm
Iraq officials admit irregularities in poll

Wednesday 02 February 2005, 3:29 Makka Time, 0:29 GMT
Electoral officials have begun compiling election results

Tens of thousands of Iraqis - mainly Sunni Arabs - may have been denied their right to vote on Sunday because of insufficient ballots and polling centres, Iraqi officials have said.

Officials began compiling election results from around the country on Tuesday, but they said many citizens arrived late on Sunday to find ballot sheets had run out, possibly skewing results. If true, the allegation that many voters were turned away could further alienate Sunnis who already say that they have been left out of the political process.

Iraq's interim President Ghazi al-Yawir said extra ballots had to be supplied to Iraq's third city of Mosul, which is mainly Sunni Arab, after twice running out on election day.

"Also, tens of thousands were unable to cast their votes because of the lack of ballots in Basra, Baghdad, and Najaf," said al-Yawir.Deprived from voting Iraq's Independent Electoral Commission acknowledged that some Iraqis were unable to vote because pre-election intimidation in two Sunni Arab provinces hampered preparations. Officials admit that many Iraqis did not vote due to intimidation "The elections took place under difficult conditions and this undoubtedly deprived a number of citizens in a number of areas from voting," said Husain al-Hindawi, who leads the commission that organised the poll. "The security situation was difficult..."

[FreedomAngel82]

44. The voting irregularites in Iraq

was also posted on Yahoo I read yesterday. So talk about a failure. Of course we'll never hear about it on MSM. :eyes:

[Carolab]

20. I wonder what it would be if people knew it was the vote for food program.

eom

[ultraist]

25. WHAT fucking election? WHO paid for that *poll*?

[imenja]

27. Rasmussen Reports

look at the site. It's the same poll that rated Bush's approval at 43% less than two weeks ago. He has a conservative bias, no question, but he has also produced the lowest approval ratings for Bush of any poll I've seen recently.

[ultraist]

30. Yes, thanks, I did look at the site

I was being facetious. Rasmussen tends to be RED and I find it interesting that the week before the election the ratings plummeted and RIGHT after the elections, they jumped. It almost seems like a set up to support the idea that people viewed the elections as legitimate.

It validates Bush's "mission accomplished" theme.

[John_H]

28. Chimp gets a 5-7 pt. bounce after every one of his 3-day infomercials

courtesty the MSM. When brave kids keep coming home maimed and worse, the dim bulbs swayed by events like 9-11 aniversaries, captures of secong tier evildoers, deaths of ex presidents and PR ops/elections will go back to the "no opinion/don't know" column where they belong.

[tritsofme]

31. This report is based upon a survey of American adults

Or so it says in your post.

What happened? This poll was everywhere just a few days ago?

[imenja]

32. I don't understand your question

He gives ratings for each day, and the numbers seem to have gone up since the Iraq election. He has also changed back to surveying "likely voters" only, which gives Bush an extra 2-3 points.

What do you mean by "the poll was everywhere"? I don't understand what you're asking.

[tritsofme]

33. Where does it say it was changed back to likely voters?

It says "This report is based upon a survey of American adults" but that during 2004 they used likely voters.

The other was more of a general comment speaking to many people's beliefs that a pollster is only credible when they agree with the numbers they put out.

*edited to say I didn't read the second half of my first post too closely before posting it.

[imenja]

34. based on his previous statements

I posted a poll taken on inauguration day when Bush's approval was at 44%. It was on the homepage for the weekend after the inauguration. It's probably listed somewhere in the archives. During that week, Rasmussen noted that his survey was a general one, whereas during the campaign he had surveyed likely voters. He doesn't say on the page linked above that he switched back. Instead, he says his survey is of likely voters. I know it changed because of what I read on his site during inauguration week.

Your point about reactions to the polls seems accurate. When Rasmussen listed Bush's popularity at 43-44%, DU members loved the poll. Now they claim it's fixed. As I have noted on this site in the past, truth has been replaced by that with which Americans agree. People don't want to read or watch news that doesn't affirm their own opinions. No wonder our populace is so ill-informed and guided by animosity over reason.

[tritsofme]

35. I thought you were saying he changed back again

to likely voters.

I realize he changed to national adults from likely voters after the election, just a misunderstanding.

[imenja]

36. yes, that's what I said

he changed back.

[tritsofme]

37. What makes you say that?

On his site it says:

This report is based upon a survey of American adults.

During 2004, reports on the President Job Approval were based upon surveys of Likely Voters. Typically, a survey of Likely Voters would report a Job Approval rating 2-3 points higher than a survey of all adults.


Sounds like he is saying that now he uses the national adult sample, while during the campaign he used likely voters.

I don't see anything to suggest he has changed yet again.

[imenja]

38. you're right

I misread it. It's the same sampling technique that produced the 43% rating, which suggests it's a great improvement for him.
Not sure how I came to that conclusion. I must have misread something.
I apologize for the confusion.

[tritsofme]

39. It was either a great improvement

or he was never really that low. Rasmussen seemed to be the outlier in bush's approval when he had it so low.

With MoE it could have been 46%, and that would have been more in line with what other pollsters were saying. After the love fest surrounding the elections in Iraq, I would imagine his approval would move up slightly, especially since 2 of the days in the 3 day moving average would have been during and after the Iraqi elections.

[imenja]

40. Mistake in original post

For some reason I misread Rasmussen's comments on how the poll was taken. This is of the population at large, not only likely voters. He has not changed since the US presidential campaign ended.
I apologize for the error and any confusion it may have caused.

[imenja]

41. 53% today

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm