Question about the Iraqi elections.

[elperromagico]

It's my understanding that, with about 37% of ballots counted, the Shi'ite cleric party is beating Allawi's party by a margin of about 3 to 1.

My question is this: Is it possible at all, considering the ideological/ethnic/religious makeup of Iraq's various regions, for Allawi's party to make up that kind of gap?

Using the American standard, I'd say this thing was a done deal; very few candidates here manage to overcome a 50% deficit when nearly 40% of the votes have been counted. But I'm not so sure about Iraq - and I'm not so sure about the Bush crowd...