Iraqi voter turnout figures exposed as bogus

[quaoar]

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/columns/pressingissues_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000788083

UPDATE: Officials Back Away from Early Estimates of Iraqi Voter Turnout
Everyone is delighted that so many Iraqis went to the polls on Sunday, but do the two turnout numbers routinely cited by the press -- 8 million and 57% -- have any basis in reality? And was the outpouring of voters in Sunni areas really "surprisingly strong"?

By Greg Mitchell

(February 02, 2005) -- Everyone, of course, is thrilled that so many Iraqis turned out to vote, in the face of threats and intimidation, on Sunday. But in hailing, and at times gushing, over the turnout, has the American media (as it did two years ago in the hyping of Saddam's WMDs) forgotten core journalistic principles in regard to fact-checking and weighing partisan assertions?

It appears so. For days, the press repeated, as gospel, assertions offered by an election official that 8 million Iraqis went to the polls on Sunday, an impressive 57% turnout rate. I questioned those figures as early as last Sunday, and offered the detailed analysis below on Wednesday. Finally, on Thursday night, John F. Burns and Dexter Filkins of The New York Times reported that Iraqi election officials have quietly "backtracked, saying that the 8 million estimate had been reached hastily on the basis of telephone reports from polling stations across the country and that the figure could change."

Then, in Friday's paper, Burns and Filkins noted that one election commision official was "evasive about the turnout, implying it might end up significantly lower than the initial estimate." They quoted this official, Safwat Radhid, exclaiming: "Only God Almighty knows the final turnout now." They revealed that the announcement of a turnout number, expected to be released this weekend, has been put off for a week, due to the "complex" tabulation system.

I'll be delighted if that figure, when it is officially announced, exceeds the dubious numbers already enshrined by much of the media. But don't be surprised if it falls a bit short. The point is: Nobody knows, and reporters and pundits should have never acted like they did know when they stated, flatly, that 8 million Iraqis voted and that this represents a turnout rate of about 57%.

< snip >

[mhr]

1. They Voted By Paper Ballots - Count The Damn Paper Ballots

Then you will know the number exactly!

[alcuno]

3. Remember how they said it would take about 24 hours to know the #

who voted? When it wasn't reported, it was simple to figure out why. And our crack US media with the attention span of a flea, apparently forgot all about it.

[The Backlash Cometh]

9. You are kidding, right?

You say that like boxes can't just appear with ballots marked.

[alcuno]

2. As a math person, I've been waiting for this.

When I heard that 6 out of 18 provinces (including Baghdad) had 1.5 million votes, it was real easy to figure out that the numbers being touted on election day were wildly optimistic.

[MeDeMax]

13. perhaps the 6 were mostly...

sunni, who would have had much lower turnouts that the shiia or kurd provinces. on the other hand the population density is likely much much higher, atleast in 'gdad.

[alcuno]

15. Nope. They said southern provinces including Baghdad.

[Oversea Visitor]

4. Gee

We don't really care. It is not an election. Only bush is fixated over this. Don't really change anything. Fighting will keep on happening.

[Contrary1]

5. Bingo...(Damn Liberal media)

"...All credit to the brave Iraqis who did vote, and in many places they did turn out in droves. But it occurred to me, watching the moving TV images on Sunday of people standing in line outside polling places in Sunni hot spots, that maybe, as so often, the camera lied. In many embattled Sunni cities, we'd been told, many if not most polling places never opened. Wouldn't this likely cause a crush, by even a few hundred voters, at the relatively few places that did open? "

[FreedomAngel82]

19. Doesn't surprise me at all

They never showed full crowds and areas like how they do with Bush at his rally's. Only time was on the inauguration. :shrug: But if you haven't at the info clearing house site you should watch the movie "The Panama Deception." It's just like now (with Bush sr) and it has a lot of dejavu's.

[whistle]

6. I thought so

[BillZBubb]

7. I am shocked! Shocked, I tell you!

Bushco and the wholly owned media exaggerated, they lied? I am shocked!

[quaoar]

8. My favorite part

They revealed that the announcement of a turnout number, expected to be released this weekend, has been put off for a week, due to the "complex" tabulation system.

Bush will announce next week that Diebold is getting a $10 billion no-bid contract to simplify the complex Iraqi election system and get rid of those annoying paper ballots.

[calimary]

14. That's the same way they put off releasing job figures and productivity

figures and lots of other things - because sometimes the results don't fit the picture they want to paint.

This is turning out like all the other "triumphs" of this pirate regime. That photo-op on the aircraft carrier went pretty nicely, too, for a few days. Until it started leaving a bad taste in people's mouths and the truth began seeping out. Everybody was dogpiling on this like crazy, rushing to judgment about how great this was and what a triumph and democracy is on the march, when the real reaction should have been - WHOA - let's just wait a moment until things shake down and the truth comes out. This is just another house of cards that is falling apart. Like all the rest of them do.

The only problem is - most of the partygoers who were whooping it up about this have all gone home to bed now. They're not around to see the cleanup and the results and the aftermath. They took their "victory" and ran. And the last word will probably be buried on the next-to-last page, down in some corner.

[The Doctor.]

18. I'm gonna hold you to that...

(not that I disagree)

That'll be a good one for the Onion.

[quaoar]

22. What is really sad

is that reality on Planet Bush is not that far removed from The Onion.

[FreedomAngel82]

21. My goodness really

how hard is it to count up ballots and write down the numbers? All you need is to have a few people, split them with ballots and count them. Good grief. :crazy: I am now convienced I live in an idiotic world.

[MeDeMax]

10. toungue-n-cheek

The spokesperson for Dybold said:

"At presentime our technicians are working overtime to figure out if the malfunctioning voting machines we supplied in eraq are fitted with 8, 16 or 32 bit processors.

This is significant because the votes counted have to be adjusted for insurgency, violence, fear and apathy factors so we can have a perfect election.

The processors in the machines can adjust for counts upto 255, 65,000 or 4-billion depending on if it is 8, 16 or 32 bit processor.

It was determined earlier on that eraqis would feel empowered if the machines showed high turnout even before they cast their first ballots.

Due to a planned voting ir-regularity sunny areas of eraq were outfitted with 8 bit machines and sheya areas were fitted with 16 bit machines.

And as a safeguard against the sunny or sheya eraqis taking democracy too seriously a 32 bit machine, capable of neutralizing all other votes, was installed at sixteen hundred pennsylvania.

Thank you for your patience while we anxiously await the verdict of the people of eraq."

:)

[jimshoes]

16. Hi

Welcome to DU from a fellow buckeye. Please don't take this the wrong way but, I'm pretty sure it's Sunni, Shiite or Shia, and Iraq. Some of us here can be pretty nit-picky when it comes to spelling. (And it would help get your humor across)

[MeDeMax]

17. no problemo...

no offense taken, but I intentionally munged the nouns to phonetically close cousins.

hope you enjoyed it, rereading it I think it is a bit too geeky.

[The Doctor.]

20. Brilliant piece.

You nailed the 'American Vernacular'.

[MeDeMax]

11. y'all please read my tongue-n-cheek post above n/t

[hyperium]

12. This is still 'the' turning point though right? n/t