An easy way t pick up five House seats, including Hastert's

[Walt Starr]

Illinois is ripe for the picking, folks. If Illinois Democrats desired it, five House seats could easily change hands.

I've briefly looked at the precinct data from the Senate, Prseident, and House races. Taking a page from the Republican playbook, the Democratic Illinois legislature could easily redraw districts to guarantee Democratic victories in at least five Congressional districts, including the district of Dennis Hastert. Defeating Hastert using Republican tactics would be, in my humble opinion, the sweetest victory of all. The House seats currently held by Democrats could also be shored up in cases where shoring up is necessary.

How can this be accomplished? Simple, redraw the districts surrounding Chicago to make them snake their way into the city and historically liberal suburbs (such as Evanston)! If done properly, more than five seats could be picked up!

Republicans have done this exact same districting technique in Utah to dilute the liberal views of Salt Lake City. They did this in Texas to dilute the liberal areas of Austin.

Illinois Democrats could do this in a similar fashion to force Democratic victories in what have been Republican stronholds for years, yet keep currently Democratic districts Democratic!

What other states could we do this in?

[patricia92243]

1. Do the Democrats have the backbone to do this? So far, I don't see it.

[Rowdyboy]

2. California's last redistricting COULD have gained us 3-5 seats

but the chickenshit legislature instead chose to make each seat stronger. Rather than having seats witha 55% Democratic registration, they went for sure-fire wins, 60-70% Democratic districts. We lost several seats right there. I believe the story in Pennsylania is much the same.

[sellitman]

3. I disagree

It was bad pool when the Repukes did it. We can't lower ourselves to their form of gutter politics. We become no better than them. There has to be another way.

Just my .02

[demwing]

9. i disagree with your disagreement

there are no rules in a street brawl.

We didn't start with these tactics, but we can put an end to them in only one way...

[trogdor]

12. So do I

What better way to get make the GOoPers' heads asplode than to kick their asses with their own dirty tricks?

[Igel]

30. I'm fairly sure that the repubs didn't start with those tactics either.

They've probably been around longer than either party (I'm not sure when the repub party was founded, as though that makes any difference), and I suspect that difference between repubs and dems engaging in it boils down to either days or opportunity, not motive or predilection.

[Walt Starr]

33. The tactic is redistricting ad hoc rather than after a census

Gerrymandering has been around as long as there have been political districts. Doing it at a time other than after a census is a new phenomenon.

[Walt Starr]

16. Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way!

Sorry, but if all you are bringing to this gun fight is a soap box, you should probably stay home.

"Staying above the fray" does not work in politics because political actions ARE a "fray".

Staying wimpy means Democrats lose. Might as well throw in the towel now if we are going to try and be "nice guys".

[IdaBriggs]

21. Tell that to the dead. nt

[Walt Starr]

23. Good point, if Dems continue being sissy boys

the BFEE will continue to be emboldened to go to war whenever and whereever it likes.

[hippiegranny]

32. gutter politics

Look, the Pukes have called the game. It is what it is now. Everytime we bring a Nerf ball to the Dodgeball political arena, we get nailed in the crotch. The playing field has been skewed for too long, it's time to level.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

[FreedomAngel82]

42. We don't like it when

it happens to us so I don't think we should do things like that. It only makes us look bad and I though we as a party were above all that. It's just dirty. I'd rather win fair and square.

[demwing]

49. Fair and Square?

I'll tell you my opinion on this...

Until we get rid of the Republicans, there isn't any "fair and square."

You may not think it's fair when you schedule a knife fight and the other guy brings a gun, but when that happens, do you just use your knife and hope for the best?

No, you either pull out YOUR gun, or you run like hell.

I, for one, am tired of running, and tired of losing because we fail to realize that the Republicans aren't breaking the rules, they're changing the rules.

The rule of the game is dealer's choice, and winner deals.

If you want to change the rules, you have to win first.

[Walt Starr]

52. IT IS FAIR AND SQUARE

These are the rules we are playing under. don't like it? Amend the consitution because that's the only way to change it!

[simcha_6]

45. You're right

This is supposed to be a democratic republic. We should figure out the proportion of Republicans to Democrats and district according to that. Just because the Republicans are anti-democratic doesn't give us an excuse to become anti-democratic. We need to pull them back onto the path of democracy, not become the same thing on the other side of the spectrum.

[simcha_6]

47. Oh, yeah

If we follow their lead, we won't be able to object when they do the things to us. (Like the Colorado gerrymandering scheme that failed.) In fact, the Colorado gerrymandering backfired on the Republicans. The Democrats took it to court, stopped it, and used it to win the next election. We're the majority party now in Denver.

We're Democrats. Let's stay democrats. That is, democratic. Like Dean says, we need to uphold our principles or else we lose no matter how many elections we win.

[sellitman]

56. Thank you!

You have renewed my faith in my party. :pals:

[leyton]

51. I dislike the process, but it has to be done.

There is no other viable way to pick up the House seats that we lost.

[simcha_6]

58. Well, there is, maybe

Use census time to force a logical, proportionate distribution. Can we do that, even if they have a majority.

In the meantime, we need to prepare in every state in danger of gerrymandering. Get lawsuits in the works. In the last days of the Republicans in Colorado we had two suits pre-filed in case they attempted to gerrymander after we stopped them the second time. Then, in the next election, beat the ---- out of them for being partisan.

[fasttense]

4. I know an even easier way.

Rig the election. It works for the Repukes.

[in_cog_ni_to]

5. Well, the repukes certainly couldn't

cry foul, now could they? I think we should urge our legilature to do just that. It would be nice if they would redraw MY district and get rid of Weller. Renner did pretty good for an unknown against a 5 term asshole and if we redrew the disrict he'd win easily.

Illinois Congressional District 11 Percent Reporting: 100
Last Update:11/4/2004 12:28:05 PM
Jerry Weller (R) - Winner 59%
Tari Renner (D) 41%

Oh man. Getting rid of Hastert would do my blood prssure GOOD! :bounce:

[MarianJack]

6. They "Couldn't" Cry Foul,...

...but they would anyway. Remember, if we do it (like Bill's BJ) it is the height of evil. If they do it (Like a sexual predator governor of California or a openly adulterous mayor of NYC), it's just fine and we're playing politics. The "news" media would give them full support in this also.

I'm not saying that this is something we shouldn't do. Quite to the contrary, we have to finally realize that this is war and we don't win until we get as mean and ugly as they do. The beauty of it is that all we have to do is tell the truth about them.

[Walt Starr]

10. Henry Hyde would go, too

Hyde and Hastert both gone, all it takes is some balls for the Illinois Democrats to make it a reality.

[annabanana]

29. Gawd, I would LOVE to see those old f*rts hit the road...n/.t

[in_cog_ni_to]

31. OH? You mean Mr. "Youthful Indiscretion" Henry Hyde?

We need to urge our Legislature to go for it. They need some prodding! Hastert and Hyde gone in one election....what a dream.

[sueh]

59. Yes! Another DU'er in my district!

My husband and I worked our butts off in eastern Will County (Crete & Steger) trying to get Renner elected. I wonder if Renner would run again if the district were to be redrawn.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

7. as long as they dems hold local secretary of state positions & voting ....

machines it will never happen imho

[Walt Starr]

14. Illinois is controlled by the Dems

Seriously, the Illinois GOP could be completely wiped out with a move like this other than some rural pockets of 'em. It would take very little to deliver a death blow to their fucked up state party. Very little indeed.

If we don't do it, the Illinois GOP WILL come back stronger than ever and turn Illinois RED. It's survival of the fittest and if the Illinois Democrats don't show the balls now, the Illinois GOP WILL show their balls and it will be game over by 2008.

[BlueManDude]

8. We (they) don't have the balls.

Even if they tried it they'd back off the minute the GOP and the media made a peep. You see the GOP just doesn't care. They live in their own world.

[Walt Starr]

11. The Illinois GOP is on the ropes!

It's time to lay in with the Coup de Grace!

[BlueManDude]

55. Then knock 'em out and snap their necks.

I'm all for it.

[babylonsister]

13. DeLay: this was his tactic in TX and it worked.

He may get indicted because of it, but it did work.

[Walt Starr]

15. His indictment is not over the tactic

it's over the FUNDING of the tactic. Big difference!

[babylonsister]

17. Thanks, Walt. I stand corrected.

But I sure would like to see that good ole boy go down! Such a dirtbag!

[blm]

18. Go for it. And let the California legislature redraw. And NY, too.

.

[Walt Starr]

19. How many Repukes could we take out in Michigan an Pennsylvania?

Rove and the RNC is counting on the State Dems being "gentlemanly" about this shit.

FUCK 'EM!

Take these fuckers out!!!

[Ramsey]

20. PA legislature is Repuke

They recently redistricted us out of 1 or 2 seats. But there are a handful of swing districts here that are relativley evenly divided that we should continue to fight for. For example, Lois Murphy came pretty darn close in PA-06 last year.

[NoPasaran]

22. Part of me deplores this openly partisan undemocratic tactic

But part of me says "TAKE NO PRISONERS!"

[Darknyte7]

24. I concur, albeit for a different reason...

If the State legislature in Illinois is in a position to redistrict, I think they should consider doing it, if for no other reason but to force this issue up through federal courts. Call me old fashion, but I still believe that redistricting should be done just once every ten years to coincide with the federal census.

The Tom Delay led coup de tau in Texas is a recipe for utter chaos in our representative democracy if state legislatures are permitted to redistrict whenever there is a shift of power between the parties in a state legislature. Ultimately, Democrats can't win that fight.

If the Dems in the Illinois State Legislature are willing and able to go forward and redistrict the state in the vain that the Republicans did in Texas, I'm hopefully the GOP would bring suit in the federal courts there in the 7th Circuit.

My hope is that the SCOTUS will agree ultimately to hear the case(s) and put a stop to the madness. Wishful thinking, I know...

[Walt Starr]

25. The SCOTUS had their chance to stopthe TX redistricting

and chose to ignore it.

That sets the standard and if the Dems don't pick up on the tactic quickly, we will lose it all.

[Darknyte7]

26. True, they did...

My concern here though Walt is that, on the macro level, Democrats can't win this fight in the long run. Unless I'm mistaken, Republicans hold power in more state houses across the country then Democrats do. Couple that with the GOPs moral disability, and I just don't see how Democrats ultimately come out on top with this strategy.

[BlueInRed]

46. That's what I thought too

If the redistricting scam started working against the Republicans, the Supremes would be quick to jump in to stop it. And in so doing, they'd pretty much have to set the whole process straight. I think that alone would be worth it.

[NoodleBoy]

27. when we win, we should do it fairly.

someone mentioned there's no rules in a street brawl, but we should refrain from kicking our opponent in the groin. if we had to do that, it would just make us look weak.

no mid-decade redistricting.

[Walt Starr]

34. We should not only kick them in the groin

we should roll them over and stab them in the back afterwards!

This is a fucking fight! Bringin a knife to a gunfight is the height oof idiocy!

[DaveinMD]

28. Hey I agree with Walt

Time to play hardball. It they did this is Texas, we should do it in Illinois.

[Walt Starr]

35. Fuck playing hardball! This is down and dirty guerrilla warfare

and the sooner we realize this is all out war, the better off we will be! Rove plays by the rules of Machiavelli and Sun Tzu while we attempt to play by the rules of etiquette!

[DaveinMD]

36. I agree with you

[Walt Starr]

37. I know

:evilgrin:

Just trying to make a harsher statement than "hardball" is all.

:evilgrin:

I associate that term too much with Tweety.

[Darknyte7]

38. This is a chess game....

Look 5 to 6 moves ahead of the play that you're advocating and tell me what you see.

[Walt Starr]

39. I see Illinois turning red if we don't

And I see that one clear as a bell!

[ThorsHammer]

40. Serious?

(Not trying to flame, but I am very surprised by your post)

I'm not from IL, but I always saw it as one of the bright blue states
along with CA and NY, that would always be there, especially with Chicago. Granted Obama's opponent was Keyes, but he still beat him 90-10 or something like that. Didn't the GOP governor also have some ethics shaninigans recently too? I'm no expert, but I would guess that IL would stay solidly blue for a long time.

[Walt Starr]

41. Seriously

The data from this past election demonstrates some serious flaws and the Democratic Party is on the cusp of scandals that could make the George Ryan fiasco pale by comparison. George Ryan put the Republicans into the position they currently are in here, but the Illinois Dems are as dirty and the pendulum could easily swing the other way unless Illinois Dems act now to counter it.

Watch the governor's race in 2006. It will be the telling tale.

[ThorsHammer]

44. Thanks, I never knew that

I might have been blinded by Obama's obliteration of Keyes, although i think he would have rolled over Jack (?) Ryan too. I had not heard anything about scandals - some complaints over the 3rd airport, but nothing too big. Daley also seems to be pretty well liked. I also think Chicago itself will provide a Democrat majority large enough as long as the rest of the state stays reasonably split. All bets could be off if the scandals come out though.

[Walt Starr]

50. It would have been a lot closer with Rya as the opponent

Look at the various House races. All but one went to the incumbent. Look at the presidential election, much closer than the Obama route of Keyes.

What the data explicitly tells us, though, are those hotspots where Republicanism is intractable compared to those areas where inroads could be made. Unfortunately, the same data is available to the Republicans and past experience demonstrates the republicans know how to use this data whereas Democrats tend to go with their "feelings" rather than hard data.

[Beetwasher]

43. Maybe NY Too In A Couple Of Years

After we boot Pataki and retake the State Senate, both of which are VERY doable.

But yes, Dems need to get moving on IL right away. If they don't, theyr'e fucking stupid.

[Edgewater_Joe]

48. You Don't Have To Redraw The Lines To Win In IL

Remember, the Repunks in IL are so disorganized and are so devoid of anyone to run state-wide that when Alan Keyes decided to permanently relocate to IL, he became the Repub with the most name recognition.

Hastert's shaky, Hyde may be retiring, the outer suburbs of Chicago are increasingly Democratic - about the only Repub 'strongholds' are in the rural center and north near the Wisconsin border.

The Repubs may be at least two cycles away from competing statewide in IL, and that's something we in IL can take advantage of.

Leave the ugly redrawing to the scumbags like DeLay and Rove. We'll take back Congress and do it on the up-and-up - because where Dems need to get tough, it's in the trenches and not by rejiggering the rules.

[sueh]

60. I live in eastern Will County which is a Republican stronghold.

We've been trying to get rid of Jerry Weller for years (11th district). Rather late in the campaign (Sept/Oct) Durbin and Obama decided to put "more resources" in Will County because it is the fastest growing county in the state and it generally votes red. They were looking to get more votes for the democrats. Durbin and Obama did well statewide, but they didn't win in my district.

Weller, IMO, has to go because I think he is looking for a more powerful position in the House. He's still pretty young and can afford to wait awhile, but, WE can't afford to have him as a rep.
We need Dems in the House in 2006 to start impeachment proceedings.

[DemoTex]

53. "Delay" Illinois and oust Hassert?

That sounds like an idea that needs to happen! Know what I mean, Vern?

[tkmorris]

54. I like you Walt, so don't take this wrong

But this reminds me an awful lot of the dogfight that took place just after the elections in November, when so many people wanted to jettison issues like gay marriage and gun control from the party agenda so that we could "win".

It seems to me those arguments died (though they're not completely gone) because cooler heads spoke to ask if it was worth it just to "win". I am a Democrat precisely BECAUSE of the principles I believe in, not the other way around. If we are to become a party that doesn't stand for the principles that matter to me then what use is winning? It would be far simpler for me to just march down to the registrars office and declare myself a Republican. Then I'm on the winning team right away, no muss, no fuss.

The problem with doing such a thing of course is that I am no longer living by the moral code I set forth for myself, I am selling out in order to achieve a hollow victory. Likewise here, if we have to cheat to win than we are no longer what we claim to be, we're just a different flavor of corrupt asshole. Ideally I would refuse to play in a poker game where I know everyone else is cheating, but if I DID play I would still play honestly because that's who I am. Yes, knowing full well that it makes it that much harder for me to win.

I am a Democrat BECAUSE I believe in these things. Living a life without shame is more important to me than winning. Just MHO.

[in_cog_ni_to]

57. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

We HAVE to play like the repuke party. DIRTY. We have to. Unless we want them to rule the world forever. This is not politics of old. This is the PNAC New World Order world of politics. We have to beat them at their own game by playing EXACTLY like they do. The gloves must come off. As soon as we take back the government THEN we can think about our moral code. Until then...to hell with it. These people are evil incarnate. We have to get them out of office before they completely destroy our country. This is no time to worry about playing nice. We can't afford to.

[suigeneris]

61. I'd be all for it but...

...redistricting can only be done in conjunction with the census once per decade. The reason is reapportionment - when the number of house seats are divided up among the states. Redistricting is then up to the states but the districts must be equal in population. Somebody could look up the rules in Illinois but I think there is usually a one year window to accomplish that after the census or it is done by the following legislature after the census. Not all states use the legislature, I think.

The shenanigans in Texas were possible because an agreement couldn't be reached by the legislature on time. How they got away with the subsequent gerrymandering was just the usual Republican criminal enterprise.

The SCOTUS applies a few tests to ensure a veneer of fairness but generally lets the states get away with political murder.

[RealDems]

62. Not a bad idea...

I like the idea of playing the same kind of hardball as the Republicans.