Must Read Asia Times Article on Current Iraq Political Scene

[TexasLawyer]

Damn, things are messed up in Iraq. Sistani promised that Americans were on their way out, and his people are going to be pretty sad when they find out they're actually being colonized.

But I bet we have a new front-runner-- Abdel Mahdi-- once those boxes of ex-pat votes get "counted" (counted twice, three times or more-- whatever it takes).


Feb 11, 2005

THE ROVING EYE
The Shi'ites' Faustian pact
By Pepe Escobar

<snip>

Sistani will have the last word as far as who will be the new Iraqi prime minister, not to mention the turbulent process of drafting the permanent constitution. He will refuse to allow the Kurds a veto power over the constitution - something they already have thanks to an administrative law passed by the Americans. Baghdad sources confirm that a key reason for Sistani to "bless" the Shi'ite-dominated United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) was that he was assured a primordial role in drafting the constitution. Moreover, Sistani himself is infinitely more popular and respected than the two main Shi'ite parties, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the Da'wa Party. For the majority of Sunnis and even for some secular Shi'ites, they are Iranian agents: during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the SCIRI was on Iran's side, ie against Saddam. Without Sistani's "blessing", these parties would never have been voted for en masse on January 30.


{b]Abdel Mahdi, currently the finance minister and a member of the SCIRI, remains a strong contender for prime minister, alongside Ibrahim al-Jafaari of Da'wa.

On December 22, Mahdi - with US Under Secretary of State Alan Larson by his side - told the National Press Club in Washington in so many words, and to the delight of corporate US oil majors, that a new oil law would privatize Iraq's oil industry. The new law would allow investment in both downstream and "maybe even upstream" operations, meaning foreigners could become de facto owners of Iraqi oilfields. No wonder Mahdi has been touted by US corporate media as the next best candidate for prime minister after "the Americans' man", former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) asset and current Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.

Apart from an item by Inter Press Service at the time, Antonia Juhasz, a Foreign Policy in Focus scholar currently writing a book about the economic invasion of Iraq, has been the only one to sound alarm bells: Is it possible that Washington has made a deal - oil for power - with the SCIRI?


<snip>

Both the billions of dollars and the maze of rules are controlled by auditors sitting in every Iraqi ministry for five years, all of them appointed (and controlled) by the Americans. The only thing that the Bush administration does not control in Iraq is unlimited, no-holds-barred access to oil - which anyone familiar with Vice President Dick Cheney's world view knows to be the key reason for the invasion and occupation of Iraq.

The whole point of an indefinite, muscular US military presence in Iraq (14 military bases, more than 100,000 troops, the massive embassy in Baghdad, the CIA-trained "Salvador option" death squads) would be to protect US corporate interests in the oil industry. But the possibility of a law privatizing Iraq's oil coming to pass under a UIA-dominated government is less than zero - for two main reasons. In terms of Iraqi nationalism, this would spell political suicide to either the SCIRI or the Da'wa Party: most Shi'ites who voted in the elections, following Sistani's dictum, thought they were voting for the US to leave, for good. And in geopolitical terms, all the Shi'ite religious parties have close connections with Iran, which, encircled by the US from the east (Afghanistan) and west (Iraq), would find innumerable creative ways to turn the Americans' lives into a living hell.

<snip>

Sistani sold the elections to the pious Shi'ite masses as the first step toward the end of the occupation. In the next few months his promise will be subjected to a groundbreaking reality test. Shi'ites at the polls unmistakably said that they were voting to expel the Americans, not to legitimize them.
If the Kurds get too much power, if the Shi'ite list disintegrates, if the US keeps building its sprawling military bases - which means they will be in Iraq for the long run, supported by puppet governments - the Sunni resistance will definitely become a national, Sunni-Shi'ite resistance. As for "terrorism", according to Baghdad sources, an overwhelming number of moderate, secular Sunnis and Shi'ites are convinced that "arch terrorist" Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is being exploited in a CIA black-ops designed to exacerbate ethnic tensions.


<lots more>

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GB11Ak02.html

[Lexingtonian]

1. nah, al-Sistani has a winning hand

Three days of Gandhi Tech nonviolent mass protests, and the Bushies and their puppets are goners.

[ikri]

2. Mahdi?

Abdel Mahdi?

Unusual name.

[TexasLawyer]

3. I bookmarked your link.

Thanks. I'm a cultural illiterate when it comes to Islam. I wonder if Shia prophesy may be now in the making.

The Arabic term "mahdi" is best translated with "divinely guided one".
Saviour figure in Islam, for which there are several different interpretations in Sunni Islam, and one dominant interpretation in Shi'i Islam. The "mahdi" of Sunni Islam is just one of several important figures, while the "mahdi" of Shi'i Islam has a real eschatological importance, and is in the future the most important figure for Islam as well as the world.

The main principle of the mahdi is that he is a figure that is absolutely guided by God. This guidance is stronger form of guidance than normal guidance, which usually involves than a human being willfully acts according to the guidance of God. The mahdi on the other hand, has nothing of this human element, and acts the will of God directly.

<snip>

http://i-cias.com/e.o/mahdi.htm

[Just Me]

4. Are the neoCONspirators intentionally setting up a civil conflict?

I ask myself this question frequently because, in order to "justify" a permanent US military presence, the neoCONspirators have to create whatever environment necessary.

Could be that the neoCONspirators simply intend to bring Iran into the warring fold by bombing Iran's nuke plants. :shrug:

Any way you look at the situation, it's awful,...particularly when you consider the aims of the neoCONspirators.

[TexasLawyer]

6. They HAD to know ahead of time that removing Saddam

would bring about a major economic, religious, social and political power vacuum in a country that was already a tinder box.

But what better way to get permanent U.S. carte blanche in Iraq? And now if we can goad Iran into a fight, then we will have a reason to strengthen and extend U.S. presence in the Middle East, and maybe impose a military draft here at home.

[bluedog]

5. also check out

http://dailywarnews.blogspot.com/

up to date news stories

[TexasLawyer]

7. Great site with great links

I especially like the links to intelligence reports and think tanks. I've got it bookmarked.