Would NEW YORK Be a Tossup if '08 Were HILLARY v. RUDY?

[liberalpragmatist]

I don't think it would be, given that Hillary outpolls Rudy in a hypothetical '06 senate race. But I'm curious what New Yorkers think.

Also, how does Giuliani play in NJ?

Don't get me wrong - I highly doubt that Giuliani will win the nomination - the Christian Right won't let him OR McCain OR Hagel - but in the offchance that he does slip through, would NY and NJ be swing states? What about Connecticut?

Note: I'm not declaring support for Hillary in '08. Personally I think Edwards, Warner, Kerry, Clark, Bayh, even Gore, maybe Feingold would be better, but I'm not ruling anybody out right now and is keeping an open mind towards a Hillary run.

[JI7]

1. no

Rudy has more chance of winning Governor or Senator in New York . but in a national Presidential election they will go Democratic.

only way i can see Rudy carry New York as a Presidential candidate is if the Democrats nominate some conservative democrat who favors limits on abortion rights and is opposed to gun control and Rudy is actually more liberal on some of those type of issues than the Democratic opponent.

but other than that i can't see Rudy winning nationwide.

[LostInAnomie]

4. Rudy would never get the nomination.

He's pro choice, and anti gay marriage amendment. Credentials like that aren't going to draw the fundies to the polls.

[trogdor]

16. Exactly.

Granted, Rudy would probably draw quite a few Democrats, but the Republicans would have to decide whether they like winning enough to nominate somebody who would be likely to buck the party line on all their favorite wedge issues. I mean, God forbid anyone in the position of figurehead actually use his own brain.

[ProgressiveConn]

2. I think Giuliani could carry Connecticut.

Swing state. I don't think he could get the GOP nod however.

[NYC]

3. New Yorkers had 8 years of Giuliani.

I think most of us know him well enough not to vote for him.

[BlueManDude]

5. Rudy will beat Hillary in 06 Senate race

The GOP has no other real challengers for Hill's Senate seat (NYers seem pretty sick of Pataki)and Rudy will be persuaded to run even though I doubt he has any real interest in serving as one of 100 senators and will likely make a real disinterested and ineffectual legislator. He'll run just to beat her - and I think he will beat her. It's too bad for NY because Hillary is really suited for the Senate.

[JI7]

6. polls show Hillary beating Rudy

and she has very high favorable numbers, much higher than when she won in 2000.

[BlueManDude]

18. She's up by like 5...

and they haven't started tearing her to shreds yet. Sorry I'm so pessimistic but with the likes of Imus and Russert cheering him on I think Rudy beats Hill.

[LosinIt]

7. Hillary has gained a lot of respect, even in Northern NY

which surprises me. Oh sure, there are still the hardcore haters, but even my mother has softened on her. She has been effective on several issues.

[Zynx]

8. Rudy's 9/11 mystique is overvalued.

When the heat of a campaign takes hold, one clear factor will emerge: Rudy Giuliani is an asshole.

[leftynyc]

11. I don't think so

downstaters aren't crazy about him now and upstaters always hated him.

[LynneSin]

13. Wait, this is a guy who openly moved his mistress into Gracie Mansion

Rudy makes Bill Clinton look like an Altar boy.

Rudy has not been in office since 2001 and outside 9/11 hasn't done anything significant since 2001 except a speech at the RNC convention. Hillary is doing well for NYC and would easily beat Rudy. If they attempt to drag Hillary's name through the mud Rudy would becoming even more muddier with all the skeletons in his closet!

[BlueManDude]

17. GOPers are excused sexual pecadillos n/t

[Azathoth]

9. In a presidential race, Hillary would most likely take NY

Her popularity there has risen instead of fallen over the past couple years, and she would have a full senate term on her resume. New Jersey would be a lot closer though. Rudy could conceivably take NJ.

[mattclearing]

10. No.

I don't think New York will ever forgive anyone remotely associated with 9/11 after everything that has happened.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

12. Repug vs DLC? Another non-election between twins.

Bad vs not-quite-as-bad. Perhaps the New Yorkers will come to their senses and run a Democrat against Hillary in '06.

[LynneSin]

14. Hillary may be DLC but she's far from being moderate

Which ironically even though the DLC contains most of the moderates it also has some not-so-moderates like Hillary and also Debbie Stabenow.

I'm not defending the DLC but I wouldn't exactly call Hillary their poster child either!

[WI_DEM]

15. it would be the first time since '84 that Dems would have to put time

and money in NY, while I think Hillary would likely win, it would not be by the stunning 1.5-2 million vote popular margin that we have become accustomed to since 1992. But we would have to spend some time and money there--no doubt about it.

[blm]

19. Too many NYers think that Bush administration BLEW 9-11 and Rudy

helped to coverup for Bush's incompetence.

NYC read the 9-11 report more carefully than any other community.

[American Tragedy]

20. Giuliani will never be the Republican candidate for President

He would be slaughtered in the South Carolina primary, if he even made it that far.

I would also like to believe that Clinton would defeat him for the Senate, especially after his recent gag-inducing whoring for Bush and the GOP.