These Are My Thoughts On The Primary, For Those Who Are Interested

[THUNDER HANDS]

I wasn't on DU Monday night. I was at home, in front of the tv, watching all the coverage I could on the major networks. So, please forgive me if some of what I'm saying seems a little stale and dated by now.

But I just wanted to jot down some thoughts because at this moment in time I'm feeling awfully conflicted about how the primaries are turning out.

1. I'm absolutely thrilled that Kerry won Iowa. Kerry was my first choice, waaaaaay back over a year ago. In fact, I made a bet with my Poly Sci professor over a year ago that Kerry would beat Bush (a $50 bet that I still hope she remembers). I've studied his record, his votes on major issues and while I'm not 100% satisfied with everything he's done in his career - (I never expect to find a candidate like that anyway) - I believe Kerry is as close to a perfect centrist-liberal as the Democratic party has had in years.

2. At the same time I'm thrilled that Kerry won, I'm sad at the way the caucus process turned out. This being my first primary that I'm paying active attention to, I expected things to turn out the way that they were predicting - that organization and on-the-ground foot soldiers trump whatever the hell "momentum" is supposed to be. What that tells me is that people are taking their cue's from the media and not from their own thoughts and opinions. Because there is no such thing as "momentum" if the media doesn't report that said candidate has it in the first place. I expected more from Iowans and I guess I'm disappointed in that regard. But I'm not blaming the media, because that's a cop-out and speaks lowly of the intelligence of Iowa voters.

3. John Edwards is for real. It took me a while to see it, and maybe it took him a while to get it, but Edwards has "it". I like Chris Matthews' expression for him "he looks like a guy who always has the sun on his face." And knowing what little I know about the way this country chooses politicians, just having a good looking guy who can speak well and charm the pants off your grandmother can, potentially, be enough to win. I said this about Edwards earlier and I stand by this statement. Edwards is the one man in this race who has a guaranteed lock to be on the ticket in 2004. Either as the candidate or as a VP pick. Personally, I think he'd make a great VP for Kerry. And I wouldn't be too disappointed if those roles were reversed.

4. Howard Dean has let me down. I am by no means a Dean basher. I've gone to Meetups and I've donated to his campaign (as I have done for Kerry) and I've talked him up to as many people I could. But after his concession speech Monday night I just couldn't continue to keep this guy in my Top-3. I sat there Monday night watching all the candidates give their speeches. Dean had the unfortunate timing of going on right after Edwards did. And Edwards had just given one hell of a speech. After starting out well with his concession, Dean became unfocused and it was like watching a train wreck. I actually grimaced and debated flipping the channel because I couldn't bear to watch what he was doing to himself.

I know WHY Dean did what he did. But to me, his handlers, especially Joe Trippi, let him down and could have severely harmed him in New Hampshire and the rest of the way. Dean had plenty of time to make up a speech and bow out of Iowa graciously. That is what his handlers should have told him to do. I know he wanted to pump up his supporters, but he'll never win a single primary state if he just talks to the converted. I walked (well, slept) away Monday night thinking that Dean acted like he wanted to be president of the Howard Dean fan club more than the United States.

And too be totally honest. Dean scared me away. Call me a wimp. Call me a pussy. But he did.

5. Dick Gephardt's final run in Iowa might have also signaled the final end of organized labor's power in primary contests. Sure the labor vote was split three ways, but even if Gephardt had corralled them all, he still wouldn't have beaten Kerry. I used to think that Kucinich, Braun and Sharpton had no practical place being in the debates and now I think I should have added Gephardt to that list as well. Even if he did manage to win Iowa his campaign wouldn't have lasted through the month because he was flat broke.

So in conclusion, Kerry made me happy, Dean made me sad and Edwards made me take another hard look at him. Not what I expected going into Iowa. And I can't wait until New Hampshire because I can't wait to see how Clark and Lieberman being in the race are going to toss things around.

Predictions for New Hampshire:

1. Kerry 35%
2. Clark 25%
3. Edwards 15%
4. Dean 15%
5. Lieberman 10%

[La_Serpiente]

1. Hey MagicRat

I think you gave too much percentage points to Lieberman. :evilgrin:

Nice report. And oh, for those of you interested, Lieberman is not going to drop out even if he does very poorly in New Hampshire. :-(

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. no, I think Lieberman will do reasonably well

For him, anyway. He's shooting for Super Tuesday, especically Arizona.

But I'd be shocked, SHOCKED, if Lieberman cracks the Top-4.

[Cuban_Liberal]

2. You're alive!

Padraig was wondering :wtf: had happened to you. :)

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. needed a break

Recharged my battery. Met a nice girl. But now I'm ready to rock & roll again. :)

[Cuban_Liberal]

5. Cool! I'll tell him as soon as he gets home.

He'll be pleased. :)

[mlawson]

6. Thanks for your assessment of Edwards! Very nice!

And I, as well, predict flatly that he will be on the ticket.

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. Edwards is gonna be a media darling

And, his biggest weakness will probably be overlookd by most voters. The lack of military experience, IMO, will be a hurdle that Edwards can jump easily if he gets the nomination. Especially if Clark is his VP. Or Kerry.

[displacedtexan]

7. The 'momentum' is now, not Monday night.

The media has chanted "Kerry has no organization" over and over for months. Well, Kerry staffers have been on the ground in Iowa since around Labor Day, networking and organizing for the caucus.

As for Dr. Dean's speech, he should have known that, given how much the entire world hates *, they would all be watching. Kerry and the others with decades of intense media scrutiny took this simple fact for granted and behaved accordingly. I'm sure world leaders winced and wrote off Dean. We may yet elect him, but he has damaged his potential position of respect on the world stage.

[THUNDER HANDS]

9. I think Dean's biggest handicap

Is that he seems surrounded by an echo chamber of supporters who keep egging him on to throw out red meat.

Dean needs to LEAD his followers, not be lead by them. He tends to speak as if everyone automatically agrees with him. At least, that's how it comes across to me.

And I LIKE the guy.

[patricia92243]

10. And you think that thing in the WH now has world leaders' respect?

[Shanty Oilish]

11. Thoroughly agree with you

I used to disagree with you quite a lot, Magic Rat, though I seldom let on. Now you write something I could have written myself -- had I the talent :) Must be something in the atmosphere here.

I've been writhing over Kerry's poor performance and prospects, and the apparent inevitability that he'd lose the nomination. Feel much better now. He will get the treatment from the Bush team, just as any other Dem, but I believe Kerry has more skill at dealing with it than any other. And while I never could be enthusiastic for Dean I am sorry to see him sinking, he's a good man. Edwards cannot fail, no matter what happens this year, his star is ascending. So we are doing all right IMO and the outlook is brighter.

:kick: