Shiite Islamists win big (47.6%) in Iraq; trouble's a'brewin'...

[PurityOfEssence]

Junior is in for some serious education, should he learn to learn.

You don't toy around with people of REAL faith; they answer to a higher authority. Sistani's kept the lid on things for a long time, and because we botched the initial occupation, we had to rely on his stabilizing influence. He was steady and waited for the right moments to act, keeping above the fray and dispelling fears of theocracy. Remember: just because clerics aren't actually in the government doesn't mean it won't be a hardcore fundamentalist tyranny.

Fundies may be Junior's downfall here, too: when you make a pact with extremists, they want payback. When you take into account that he and his mob are accustomed to getting their way, the possibility presents itself that they may be very ill-equipped to fight against a willful power bloc.

Big mess. Not good. Our fault.

[Zynx]

1. Allawi and the Kurds only have 38% or so.

Third parties got a big chunk. Many of them are religious parties as well and will form a coalition with Sistani. In addition, it is conceivable that Sistani actually does have a majority since many of the votes were cast for parties that did not receive enough votes to gain a seat in the legislature his share will be larger than it first appears.

[blondeatlast]

2. Link to Yahoo coverage:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050213/wl_nm/iraq_dc&cid=574&ncid=1480

Now that they have embraced democracy, can we leave? Even if it isn't the democracy they were SUPPOSED to accept?

The plot thickens...

[KharmaTrain]

3. Congrats Junior...Another Lebanon Coming Up

The problem with sham elections is it's all downhill once the chest-pounding ends and the reality sets in. With all those parties participating and many having diverse agendas...it was assured that no one would get any real power and everyone would feel they got screwed. This works wonderful for the Alwai dictatorship and his masters in Neoconland, but in Iraq there are a lot of new scores being written to settle and our young men are right in the crosshairs.

Certainly the Sunnis who are on the short-end here, and haven't been in that position since the British handed them the country in the 20's, aren't just a group of "dead-enders", but biding their time and getting more pissed. The Shiites in Baghdad...followers of Al Sadr has a far different agenda than Sistani in the South as do the other mujahadeen or "terrorist" groups that are all over the country. Just like in Afghanistan and Lebanon, everyone will carve up their turf and the U.S. military becomes the enemy of all.

That's the damned problem with these occupations...the locals tend to get more belligerant, not less, the longer they're under your heel. The French Resistance and Partisans sure didn't fade away as World War II moved along.

The delaying of real results says volumes on how much a sham this process is...as Alwai maintains dictatorial powers no matter what, and all this "election" does is set up another "election" that is sure to touch off even greater violence as the various factions get more and more frustrated.

[PurityOfEssence]

5. Further proof that those born to power often don't understand it

I wish I remember who wrote it, but there's a line about Hitler to explain how he failed in Russia: "He was so hot at the dice table for so long that he just didn't think he could lose."

Controlling the media and having vigorous partisan support and scads of money, Junior and his scary band have gotten away with all sorts of things. Although they "control" the representation of the situation in this country, they don't control the situation itself.

As I write this, at 7 a.m. on a Sunday in California, CNN is trying pathetically to spin this as surprising, since Sistani's pals were expected to win a majority. Boy, that's feeble wobbling spin if I've ever heard it.

Junior and his mob are legacy mobsters: he is Fredo, and it shows. Those accustomed to playing in a crooked game are often the least able to run the table in a fair contest. It's about power, and just because one's spent one's life languishing with the joys of life-and-death leverage over others doesn't mean one knows squat about gaining control.

[blondeatlast]

6. This is the most frightenting thing about the Admin, IMHO.

What happens when the inevitable collision with reality occurs?

When there really are thousands on the streets of the US starving due to the budget cuts?

When Iraq decides to really assert it's independence while our people are still there?

When North Korea decides they've been ignored too long and launches one at us?

:scared:

[PurityOfEssence]

10. Yep. Evil's costly, but nothing makes a mess like incompetence.

I don't see any reason for North Korea to launch anything at us, since it would guarantee their annihilation. The danger is hitting them and getting whacked in the process.

The dangerous part of your projections is that it leaves these people no choice but to declare some form of permanent martial law to hold control when reality can no longer be hidden. They will NOT go quietly.

The domestic issues will tip the balance, since they cannot be hidden like foreign blunders can. I'm scared too, but I'm much more disgusted. It's obvious that this system can't survive on this path, and it's just depressing that more can't see it. It's the group-think of huggy-kissy American optimism coupled with Reaganite tough-guy posturing. Many who are hurting in our economy will never admit it and become a self-proclaimed loser in this, the greatest and fairest system ever devised. I gag at the words, and yet it's coming.

We're staying in Iraq, period. If the government wants us out, we'll destabilize them or come up with an excuse or something. It's about Israel, the oil, showing the world how tough we are, and pissy vengeance on the part of our petty president.

On to Syria!

[KharmaTrain]

8. Fredo!

You're so right in what you write. For those of us who see through this sham, the spin is both pathetic and damaging. It perpetuates the lie that the U.S. is doing something positive in this situation and furthers the day of reckoning when the military situation deteriorates. I fear an Iraqi "Tet" coming on.

I hate drawing comparisons between my country and the Nazi occupation of Europe...especially since I'm Jewish...but we did invade this country (especially in the eyes of their people) and our continued occupation has and will continue to result in greater and deeper resistance. Those who are condemned to history...

I love your Fredo reference...even though I kinda think Neil fits the Fredo...Junior is more the Sonny type...cocky and ready to shoot it out. Problem is there's still Jebby Michael out there ready to take over the whole enterprise.

[PurityOfEssence]

11. Even better: Sonny

Yes, you're right on with that comparison.

It's always more sickening when it's all so obvious. Regardless of the moral reality, this was just a bad idea from the very beginning. When it became obvious that we were going into Iraq (for me, it was the summer of '02 when they went for their nasty war resolution right before the election) I had assumptions about how it would tactically and strategically work out, but I knew deep down that it was going to be a horrible thing for mankind, the region and our country.

Let's just say that the Versailles Treaty is the gift that goes on giving: vengeful politicians extracted pounds of flesh and redrew national boundaries in places they'd never been. Yugoslavia is just Europe's version of Iraq, and it's not accidental that Hussein was very chummy with him: they were stewards over the same kind of cobbled-together fake "states".

The other lesson of Versailles is that people feel they can force reality, regardless of facts, and in the end, they fail miserably. To me, World War 2 is just a sequel to the main feature.

Many see the same thing, but we are all demoralized by the habitual march of cocksure stupidity. Although we can take some comfort in knowing that many others see the same thing, we can only watch as it unfolds.

[KharmaTrain]

12. After The Deluge...

Thank you for re-assuring me that I wasn't coming to these conclusions in my little world. We see things in the same light and I feel your frustration as all we can do is watch as this unfolds and hope it doesn't touch our own lives too deeply.

Human nature's worst problem is attempting to regulate human nature...and generally this is done to exploit rather than better the lives of the general populace. We sit in the midst of one of the worst attempts at this ever...and we'll be the ones who will have to be ready to pick up the pieces when everything unravels.

It can be said that all wars pick up from the preceding ones. The Kosovars and Serbs are still fighting over a battle fought in 1089. But the combination of the carving up of "spheres of influence" between the European powers in the 1880s and the Versailles Treaty and it's arbitrary drawing of borders based on economic, not ethnic interests, plays out every day...and keeps evolving.

It's maddening as we knew this misadventure was doomed from the outset and rife with corruption and profiteering. In my case, it's gone far deeper than I had imagined...and I expected the worst. Sadly, not enough people in this country are hurting enough or mad to really take stands and speak out. While I had hoped change would come through the system, the streets seem to be the only way we're going to be heard.

Cheers!

[blondeatlast]

4. DUers, this is THE story.

:kick:

[Mark E. Smith]

7. 13,000 US Casualties...

... all so the Iraqis could empower an Iranian born Grand Ayatollah.


Bush was here.

[Igel]

9. It's what everbody knew was going to happen (or close enough),

and what Powell said would be acceptable. Months ago.

Sistani's sent mixed messages: as a cleric, he's called for Islamic law to guide all laws, and nothing to contradict it. On the other hand, he's also said that he knows he won't get his way, and the laws will have to allow not just tolerance of minorities, but acceptance. Like *: he calls for 150 programs to experience cuts, but he knows he won't get it (it's just a question of what he'll settle for before vetoing the budget that's passed). I don't think Sistani's stupid, he doesn't want a civil war, and to stick to the cleric line would surely result in disaster for his people. Better to take it slow.

Yesterday there was a thread about the Kurds and Allawi's list forming some sort of alliance. I lost the thread over dinner. It just might be a brilliant move, if the alliance is strong enough. If you have 48% of the vote, the Kurds or the other parties could form a coalition with you--you can threaten your coalition partner with a plausible alternative. But if the Kurds and Allawi's crew are firmly allied, the other 13-14% are useless. And both will need to get much of what they want.