New Boston Herald Poll - K(31) D(21) C(16) E (11)

[kerryistheanswer]

I know polls don't mean much but they do show momentum....

Sen. John F. Kerry has catapulted into a 10-point New Hampshire lead six
days before the nation's first primary, bouncing out of Iowa and over
longtime frontrunner Howard Dean, according to a new Boston Herald poll.

The Massachusetts senator leads Dean 31 percent to 21 percent, with
a slipping Wesley K. Clark at 16 percent after skipping the Iowa
caucuses.

Sen. John Edwards is in fourth place with 11 percent, followed by
Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 4 percent. Rev. Al Sharpton and Rep. Dennis
Kucinich continue to barely register.

Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers called it a "dramatic turn-around
for John Kerry."

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/clips/news_2004_0121.html

[goodhue]

1. yes Dean and Clark are sinking

how low will they go?
and how fast will this post sink?

[jmaier]

6. I suspect that

Wes Clark has probably bottomed. I think Gov Dean could still sink a bit further unless he has a pretty good debate and weekend.

[goodhue]

7. yes but doesn't Clark

also have a lot riding on the debate and weekend?

[jmaier]

9. Yep.

But I think that his campaign has more tolerance for a lower finish that Gov Dean's does. After 2 years of campaigning in NH and 12 years governing the neighboring state, a third place here would be a serious disaster for Dean.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

27. Guys - Kerry and Dean are from the East Coast - this isn't a "must do" for

Clark. He will need to do well on Feb 3 - he's in first in a few of the states and right behind Dean in the rest. Since these states are primarily in the South, Midwest and NONE are in the East Coast - Kerry doesn't look to be taking any of the states (except maybe Missouri).

[Justice]

14. ARG Poll

had Clark ticking up yesterday by a point, so I agree.

[goodhue]

23. but

the ARG poll was taken 1/18-1/20
this one 1/20-1/21

[Feanorcurufinwe]

25. Sorry, but that's not true. Clark ARG 1/18:20 1/19:19 1/20:18

3-Day Results  	1/16-18 1/17-19 1/18-20
Clark 	        20% 	19% 	18%
Dean  	        28%  	28%  	26%
Edwards 	8% 	8% 	9%
Gephardt 	3% 	3% 	2%
Kerry 	        19% 	20% 	24%
Kucinich 	1% 	2% 	1%
Lieberman 	6% 	7% 	7%
Sharpton 	0% 	0% 	0%
Other 	        0% 	0% 	0%
Undecided 	15% 	13% 	13%
	  		
Sample size 	617 	617 	718
	  		
Democrats 	432 	436 	511
Undeclared 	185 	181 	207
Undeclared (%) 	30% 	29% 	29%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[thalerd]

28. Yes, it's true

The numbers you listed are three-day totals. Note the dates at the top, which cover three days at a time. If you look at the same link you've posted and scroll to the bottom of the page, you'll find the following:

"Also, from January 19 to January 20, Wesley Clark is up 1 percentage point"

[Justice]

30. Yes, Thank You For Watching My Back

That is what I was referring to.

[maddezmom]

2. JK has momentum

still think Wes will do okay, but don't want to see him go much farther.

[David Dunham]

3. Kerry Will Win NH, But watch out for JE and WC in South

[spooky3]

10. Since you won the Iowa prediction contest, I'm listening to you!

[arewethereyet]

11. Edwards sure but Clark better roll in a winner or forget it

We want someone with chops down here and local boy done good plays really well. Far better than guy from Arkansas. No accent, not southern.

[goodhue]

15. agreed

and I think Edwards will beat Clark in SC.
Assuming Dean is second and Clark is third in NH (something I think Edwards may easily disrupt) what do they need to do to stay "viable" up until super Tuesday? Or will they be by definition viable no matter how badly they place?

[LuminousX]

4. I think the ARG poll is more in tune

putting Kerry in a statistical Dead Heat for 1st.

[goodhue]

5. doubt it

ARG poll was taken 1/18-1/20
herald poll was taken 1/20-1/21
ARG poll does not yet fully reflect post-Iowa bounce for JK & JE and the slide for HD & WC
the question remains, how low will they go?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

26. It will be interesting to see what it says tonight.

[leyton]

8. What if Iowa repeats?

I don't know how Clark would play into this... but what if Kerry takes first place again, Edwards takes a close second, and Dean or Clark is in distant third?

I think if this happened, Edwards would probably take South Carolina or Oklahoma but Kerry might fare better in other states.

But Edwards will more likely finish third, I guess.

[David Dunham]

13. If Iowa Repeats, Dean Is DOA; Kerry Has Mo But JE Wins SC

[ACPS65]

12. Just hasn't been Howard Dean's week

.

[goodhue]

16. very little interest in this poll here

To busy bashing Kerry and Edwards I guess.

[Old and In the Way]

21. We oughta be talking up our favorites, noy tearing down our opponents.

Sad so many posters don't "get it".


Great news for Kerry, though. I like them all, but Kerry will be our best choice to send Bush packing in November, I think.

[HFishbine]

17. Huh?

"The poll, of 501 likely Democratic primary voters, was taken by RKM
Research and Communication Tuesday and yesterday"

Yesterday was Tuesday.

[goodhue]

19. good catch!

Now I'm perplexed. It broke late today so I assume it was taken Tues & Wed but who knows.

[goodhue]

20. but thinking again

This is from tomorrow's paper. Yesterday IS today!!!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

24. lol

I'm my own grampaw!

[Monte Carlo]

18. The Herald is owned by Rupert Murdoch...

... and FOX. It's the major tabloid paper in Boston, and it will NEVER miss an opportunity to chime in on Democratic failures or what they should be doing instead.

[dreissig]

22. Don't Play Poker with Rupert Murdoch

Don't play poker with Rupert Murdoch. He's sloppy and indifferent; he shows his cards; he's so rich he doesn't care if he wins or loses. Afterwards, you feel guilty about taking his money.

[curse10]

29. Take everything from the Herald with a giant grain of salt

it's trashy. Most people in Boston won't be caught dead reading it.

[Justice]

31. I wouldn't even say Giant

just grain of salt.

[mike1963]

32. Your title "K(31) D(21) C(16) E (11)" got me wondering...if you printed it

on a piece of paper and showed to a random bunch of people, and asked them what they thought it meant, even if you said it was a "political headline", and even if you also said "it has to do with presidential candidates", how many would have the first clue?

Of course it's completely obvious to us DU pol junkies, but ...well, maybe it's silly but I just decided to give it a try. I have to go into town tomorrow, I'm gonna find out if anybody can figger it out.
;-)

[goodhue]

33. I thought the Dean/Clark folks

merely wanted to avoid this topic but now you suggest its too cryptic. I hadn't thought of that.