It’s Medicare, Stupid

[Up2Late]

The American Prospect

Only one of our giant entitlement programs is in trouble -- and it isn’t Social Security.

By Robert B. Reich
Issue Date: 02.01.05

Of the nation’s two giant entitlement programs, only one is in real trouble. It’s Medicare, not Social Security. As our special supplement makes clear, the Social Security system isn’t in a crisis. The system has been in surplus for years now, and those surpluses have been used to cover part of the government’s annual budget deficits. After 2018 and continuing through mid-century, the federal government must repay the system what it borrowed, the same way it pays back other bondholders, using revenues from other sources such as income and corporate taxes.

As labor secretary, I was a trustee of the Social Security system. In 1994, we anticipated that Social Security wouldn’t be able to pay all of its obligations beyond 2029. But that projection was based on very conservative assumptions about economic growth. The current trustees, updating the assumptions, have pushed the year of reckoning outward to 2042, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) pushed it further, to 2052. Even this lowballs the effects of economic growth. If the economy grows anywhere close to its historic average of 3.2 percent a year -- the average since the Civil War! -- the system won’t ever run out. ..

(unfortunately, to read the rest, you have to subscribe or get the Magazine on the news stand)
<http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewPrint&articleId=9042>

[Dr Ron]

1. Keep quiet

It's true that Medicare is in more trouble than Social Security. However, we don't want Bush messing with it any more. We're better off if nothing is done for four more years, than to have Bush really mess up the program.

[Up2Late]

2. "...than to have Bush really mess up the program..."

He's already screwed it up! Unfortunately, that's the part of the article that is NOT available on-line. I'll try to type some of it here.

"...Indeed, it's (the WH) Medicare drug benefit makes the Medicare problem much worse. The GAO...recently measured the projected costs of SS and Medicare over 75 years. Four years ago...they were about equal. Today, the cost of Medicare promises is about twice that of SS."

Why? Because "...*'s Medicare drug benefit is so expensive..."
because it explicitly prohibits the Government to bargain for lower drug costs.:evilfrown:

[Dr Ron]

3. That's just part of the problem

Another problem with Bush' s approach to Medicare is his attempts to force more people into Medicare HMO's. The Medicare population is a very poor one for HMO's, and such attempts have been a disaster. Medicare HMO's typically clost 4x as much as Medicare in overhead (or more) while providing poorer care. Most liklely its a back door attempt by the GOP to get rid of the government program.

[Up2Late]

4. I'm sure you're right

to paraphrase Eric Cartman from South Park, "God, I hate those guys.":mad:

[Sugarbleus]

5. Thanks for bringing this up again. You are so right...

They did a rearender on Medicare for certain. I'm in disbelief that any of our dems actually signed on to this fiasco!!

Medicare was in need of an overhaul but NOT the one it got; which essentially RUINED it.

For corporate rethugs and DINO's, improving something so that it actually works is anathema to them.

I hung on every word when Kerry talked about tossing out bush's medicare reform plan and doing "the right" thing. Perhaps, our next Dem/liberal/progressive President will do something about changing it. God knows people need a real and viable healthcare plan for their retirement.

It's actually true isn't it? EVERYTHING Georgie has put his hand to has become a disaster.

[Sgent]

6. Even at

VA prices (govt negotiated), the drug beneift wouldn't be cheap. It would probably cost about 2/3 of current estimates, but that's still 600billion we don't have. Also, this drug benefit sucks for many, esp. those currently eligible for Medicaid drugs, although its still better than nothing by far.

I don't really have a problem with single payer vs. multi payer in principal. If implemented correctly -- like the current medigap program, it could be an effective way to provide differing levels of care.

Don't get too upset with me, but I just don't think a regional system (current Medicare) makes anymore sense than a multi payer system. The administrative costs for the Medigap are very, very low, and it does provide differing benefits. That being said, I'm still not sure of the particulars.

[Up2Late]

7. The part I just couldn't understand, was how AARP backed it...

...I mean,:wtf: how would you like to be THAT guy?

The Guy who has to go into the next few AARP meetings and say, "O.K., I was wrong....":eyes:

Can you say "Tar and Feathered?"

[Sugarbleus]

8. LOL--->"Tar and Feathered?" Indeed!

Back in '02 when my dear bro-n-law was sick and dying with leukemia, we heard rumors that "they were going to fix medicare"...silly us. We were thinking 'Oh boy, they are going to FIX IT..make it cover more things and cover drugs and all necessary hospitalizations' Kinda like Medicaid does. Silly, silly fools we were to even hope such a thing could happen in America

He got theee most lousy treatment. So much wasn't covered under Medicare. My sister was left as a young widow w/house payments and no income. The hospitals et al tried to take her house.

I wasn't paying as much attention to the overall political scene as I do now--I was busy with my sick relative. Little did I know then that with the "fix" of Medicare under bushs plan, my brother in law would have died anyway.

There is NO way lower income folks on disability can afford the drugs that are not covered under medicare...not then, not now, with cuts to medicaid coming down the pike too.

[Up2Late]

9. Sorry to hear about your Brother

I can relate on the Med stuff though, I'm a single "member" of Kaiser Perminete. In the last four years, my rates have more than doubled.

:grouphug:

[Sugarbleus]

10. Thanks much. I'm equally sorry to hear about your rates skyrocketing

It's all just a huge disaster in the making. I wish you the very very best. :hug: SB