Any Feb. 2nd Polls out? How is JK going to do down South?

[TheDonkey]

Anyone have any new polls post Iowa for the Feb 2nd states like S. Carolina? I wonder how Kerry will do down south where previosuly he was VERY weak, but then agains so was Edwards in Iowa before his psuedo-victory.

[jenk]

1. I think all of them are weeks old

and still have Braun and Gephardt in them, taking up 10% of the vote.

Sharpton is disturbingly high

[mlawson]

2. IF he beats Edwards down here, I will be amazed. n/t

[poskonig]

3. Bounces matter.

The winner of NH will get one going into the Feb 3rd states.

[goodhue]

14. yes

bounces are huge

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[adadem]

6. He does not

look like Frankenstein...that is incredibly rude to say.

[jenk]

7. Reagan looked like a wax dummy, bush looks like a CHIMP

still got them into office

[mlawson]

9. People THOUGHT Ronnie connected with them.

And he did, in a 1930s optimistic, nostalgic, Jimmy Stewart way. But not on bread and butter issues. Edwards, however, does.

They *might* have thought that Junior connected with them (in 2000) much more than Gore did. There has to be some explanation for why he got 48%.

But Kerry??? I can't see it.

[maddezmom]

5. here's a great link a fellow DU'er gave me

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/polls_State_Polls_04.html

hope it helps, haven't looked in a while. :)

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

8. Kerry has Kucinich-level support in the South

Kerry would get slaughtered, plus Bush wouldn't even debate him (since obviously Kerry would destroy Bush in a debate).

Kerry will just be a talking head on TV, that Bush will ignore. Kerry can't get any swing votes.

[Lurking Dem]

10. Poorly here in TN.

I think part of that is what we saw in Iowa, though - his message seems to resonate more in person so I think his numbers should go up. But right now it is single digits.

[morningglory]

11. In the South, the Democrats are the smart people. They

are not racists, of the ones I know. The Repubs that I know in the South are twisted rich people, racists or religious nut cases. Just the ones I know, mind you. Being tolerant of minorities and gays, why would they be intolerant of Kerry, just he is from the Northeast? We are not that picky, we just want to be able to make a living. To me, "appealing to the South" means trying to pull over some of the racists or religious nut cases. You would get some of the rich people if there was an economic factor (which obtains now). Culturally, Edwards is like me. He speaks my language, but I would vote for Kerry before him. Clark is a southerner, but I do not recognize his culture. He is not like me. I look askance at his early statement that he would support a ban on flag-burning. That is just not something a Dem would say. I am suspicious. I would prefer Kerry, then Edwards, then Dean. I would like to see a Kerry/Edwards ticket for elect ability.

[Lurking Dem]

15. Appealing to the South

does not mean pulling over some of the "racists or religious nut cases". When have any of them ever voted Democratic?

I think (as I said in my post) that Kerry will do better down here when he comes in person and starts shaking some babies and kissing some hands. One of the reasons he did so well in Iowa was he literally talked to thousands of people, shook a gazillion hands, went to podunk town after podunk town getting his message out. He's much better in person than he is on tv.

That said, Clark plays much better with the Southern Democratic voter and early voting has already started here. The "Northeastern liberal" tag is a hard one to shake especially when we have (as I'm sure you have witnessed) liberals bashing the South right and left (so to speak) as it is.

[CalebHayes]

12. Might have a chance in Louisiana?

[Blue_Roses]

19. Definitely!

Especially now that Louisiana has a Democratic governor.

[goodhue]

13. nothing post-Iowa

So they don't mean much.
Please don't forget that Feb 3 is AZ, NM, MO, OK, ND & maybe some other state I forgetting as well as SC!

So its Southwest and Midwest as well.

Its going to be a very important day for all the candidates.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. Tidbit from the Globe

Of particular interest in the Kerry camp yesterday was the campaign's political strategy for the round of primaries on Feb. 3. Since he kicked off his campaign on Labor Day, Kerry has made only daylong or half-day trips to three of the seven states that will vote that day: South Carolina, Arizona, and New Mexico.

Dozens of Kerry's 200 or so paid staff in Iowa made plans to fan out to those three states, while campaign advisers also began discussing Kerry's prospects in Missouri, which had been written off by most Democrats because it is Gephardt's home state. Missouri is the biggest prize that day, offering the largest number of nominating delegates -- 88 -- as well as a foothold in a state that has traditionally been an electoral bellwether. Kerry aides said they planned to build an organization with paid staff in Missouri quickly.
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/primaries/new_hampshire/articles/2004/01/21/kerry_aims_for_repeat_performance/

[Lurking Dem]

17. Apparently

even Kerry knows he won't play so well down here so won't waste the money or the personal appearances.

[mmonk]

18. The south looks stronger for

Sharpton, Edwards, and Clark-possibly Lieberman, but the first three definitely. This is where Kerry has some weakness.