If Dean finishes 3rd in New Hampshire

[_Jumper_]

Is his candidacy effectively over?

[jenk]

1. Probably

he'll go into SC with no momentum, and might finish behind Sharpton

[jsw_81]

2. Yes

The only way Dean could survive a loss in New Hampshire is if he loses by a handful of votes (think Florida). But even then it would be difficult for his candidacy to survive.

[_Jumper_]

6. 2nd place

Right now Kerry is pulling away from both Dean and Clark. Clark is closing in on Dean, albeit slowly. If Dean manages to finish second is he still a contender?

[jsw_81]

16. I doubt it

If Dean can't win in his own backyard, he's done.

[democracyindanger]

3. nope

too much money, too big of a national organization and a 50-state strategy, IMO.

[Mz Pip]

4. I think he

will have to lose a few Southern primaries before he hangs it up. It really is too soon to tell, even though IMHO Dean is done.

MzPip
:dem:

[hellhathnofury]

5. No.

[brainshrub]

7. No, but then SC is a must-win. (nt)

[dolstein]

15. If Dean finishes third in NH, he ain't gonna win SC

NT

[jmaier]

8. He has the

legs to keep running throughout the primaries but ALL of his momentum is gone. It will be a very long, hard slog to rekindle his chances.

[poskonig]

9. It is over already.

:evilgrin:

[AntiCoup2K4]

12. In your dreams.

You can bet your ass that your candidate isn't this overconfident. Or if he is, he's a damn fool.

[_Jumper_]

13. Debate

Anything can happen tomorrow. I believe one reason Dean went into a freefall in Iowa was because of his poor performance in the previous debate.

[jsw_81]

18. You're right

Anything can happen in the debate. Who knows, Dean may apologize for his temper tantrum, and Kerry might implode. Or maybe Clark will emerge as the true front-runner. Just wait and see.

[kayleybeth]

10. I wouldn't count on it ending his candidacy

but if he finishes 3rd or worse in NH I think he will have to sweep the Feb. 3 primaries or he will no longer be taken seriously.

[reprehensor]

11. I'm for Dean...

...but historically I heard on CNN (yeah, yeah, I know...) that no nominee has ever finished less than 2nd in NH.

So realistically, that is probably it.

If he gets a fat lady up on stage to sing, then we'll know for sure.

[dolstein]

14. I think it depends on the gap between first and third

If it's like Iowa, and he ends up finishing a distant third, then I think he's toast.

[NNadir]

17. Man we have a short attention span in this country.

It's Iowa. One state out of 49. Lose New Hampshire and it's two states out of 49.

Two weeks ago Dean was unstoppable and Kerry was dead. Now Dean is dead and Kerry is unstoppable. I can't wait to see who's unstoppable and dead tomorrow.

The media tells us Bush is a shoo-in.

Should we all just quit? I have something else in mind.

[_Jumper_]

21. They aren't just two regular states

Look at what has happened in NH after Iowa. Kerry and Edwards have been rising while Dean has been falling greatly and Clark has also slipped.

[jsw_81]

26. You don't understand presidential politics

Iowa and New Hampshire are small, somewhat insignificant states on the national political scene, but they're extremely important when it comes to winning the nomination. If Dean loses New Hampshire, his funding will dry up, his supporters will defect to other candidates, and it will be over.

[arewethereyet]

19. if he's not first its just throwing good money after bad

n/t

[Ramsey]

20. No

I think he would go ahead with the next round of primaries in February. If he didn't do well there, then he would probably have to stop. Remember Clinton didn't win Iowa or New Hampshire either. I know the circumstances were different, but it certainly means those aren't necessary for the nomination process.

[_Jumper_]

24. Iowa was not contested that year

In reality he was 0-for-1, not 0-for-2. Dean will remain a top-tier candidate if he can win NH but if he loses I think he will fall into the second-tier with Edwards. That doesn't necessarily mean his chances of winning are gone, though.

[MIMStigator]

22. Dean is already finished

People are revoking their endorsements

[David Zephyr]

23. No. It's Just the Beginning.

Even at 3rd, he'll keep adding delegates to his collection on the way to Boston.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

25. Probably..and so is the election.

We'd be left only with the timid remains of the Demcocratic Party busily trying to become even more republican.

[Stuckinthebush]

28. Nah...

I'm a big Dean guy, but I doubt that the election is over.

We have some good people out there running for President. I think we have gotten wrapped up in our own rhetoric here, and have forgotten that we are all on the same side. Well, all of us except Lieberman, that is. ;)

It'll be fine.

[bluestateguy]

27. Not necessarily

but he'll be back down to second tier status again. After NH the pace of primaries quickens and there will be even less room for screwups.

[NoPasaran]

29. Not at all

There's a lot of country out there. Lots of delegates to be chosen. What matters is the number you have going to the convention.

I don't plan on switching anytime soon.

After the convention, I will support the nominee and I think that anyone who won't will in the long run be ashamed of themselves.