It¡¦s the White Working Class, Stupid

[NVMojo]

There is alot of truth to this ...I was in a business meeting today with alot of "white" professionals in Palm Springs. Most of the people in the room were white, military officials, in fact. Most of the people in the room were humping the Bush stump like I could not believe. Made me ill. I had no idea and the praises for O'Leilly and Fox made me almost lose my lunch. Then I shouted out that I think Rumsfeld is a failure and should be replaced by Clark or someone like him who has served in the military and then and only then did I get any agreement for one of my views ...

There are many theories about what drove the 2004 election results, and some of the more fanciful ideas (exurbs, fast-growing counties, evangelicals, Hispanics, values voters) have been critiqued in various editions of Public Opinion Watch. Now, with the release of the raw data from the 2004 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, it is possible to do some closer analysis of trends that really were of high salience. One such trend was the movement of white working class voters away from the Democratic ticket.

Snip....

Here some findings from an initial pass through the NEP national data:

1. In 2000, Gore lost white working class (defined as whites with less than a four year college degree) voters by 17 points; this year, Kerry lost them by 23 points, a swing of 6 points against the Democrats. In contrast, Gore lost college-educated whites by 9 points and Kerry lost them by 10 points¡Xnot much change.

Therefore white, working-class voters were responsible for almost all of Bush¡¦s increased margin among whites as a whole (which went from 12 to 17 points). And Bush¡¦s increased margin among whites, of course, was primarily responsible for his reelection.

2. Almost all of the white, working-class movement toward Bush was among white, working-class women, rather than white, working-class men. Bush won white, working-class men by almost identical margins in the two elections (29 points in 2000 and by 30 points in 2004). But he substantially widened his margin among white, working-class women, going from a 7-point lead in 2000 to an 18-point lead in 2004. That 11-point swing against the Democrats among white, working-class women is arguably the most important single fact about the 2004 election.

3. Looking at married versus single, white, working-class women, both groups appear to have swung substantially against the Democrats. Single, white, working-class women (38 percent of white, working-class women) went Democratic by 15 points in 2000, but only by 2 points in 2004. Married, white, working-class women (62 percent of white, working-class women) gave Bush a 15-point margin in 2000 and more than doubled that margin, to 31 points, in 2004. Since married, white, working-class women are the bulk of this group and had a slightly larger pro-Republican shift, they are responsible for most of the shift toward Bush among white, working-class women, but their single counterparts clearly made an important contribution as well.

more ...

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com/pow/powfebruary_16_2005.cfm

[DaveinMD]

1. guns

is a big issue with this crowd. And its not a core issue. I think we should get rid of that issue. The other aspect is that we need to do a better job talking about our values. And we need to make an economic populist argument. Kerry never got around to that. Its why Gore did better. For all his faults, Gore's the people v the powerful message resonated better with this demographic.

[blm]

4. Kerry had a strong economic message. The GOP controlled media never

discussed it as an issue.

Gore had the luxury of a media that occasionally brought up economic issues as part of the campaign news. That was pre 9-11.

Throughout 2003-4 Bush was being kept propped up as the big terror hero by most of the mainstream media. They never let on to the public how badly Bush screwed up or how negligent he actually was on this issue.

[DaveinMD]

5. I don't know about this

it seems to me that Kerry was so focused on the war in Iraq that he forget to get around to the economy. He let Bush frame the election IMO.

[BlueManDude]

7. this election was always gonna be about Iraq n/t

[BeFree]

9. But, but,... Kerry was a Liar!!

That's what I heard. The whites were snookered into thinking Kerry was a liar. If the whites are that stupid then we deserve b****.

[blm]

12. No way. The media framed the election and they kept Bush propped up

on the issue of terror.

Kerry spoke about the economy CONSTANTLY. Ask anyone who attended his campaign rallies.

Hell, the day Kerry released his plan to deal with outsourcing, that same night Lou Dobbs complained that "neither candidate will talk about outsourcing"....which was total horseshit.

Did CNN not get press releases or videos from the rallies? Of course they did. Just like the other networks, they CHOSE to ignore the economy as an issue BECAUSE Kerry had such strong ideas that made alot of sense for every American, especially the working class. By complaining that NEITHER candidate was addressing it, Dobbs was protecting Bush.

[Megahurtz]

2. Well you know them "Good 'Ol Boys"

and the fundamentalists wives must "submit" to their husbands.:puke:

[EVDebs]

3. You need to get us DUers to read "Perfectly Legal" which shows

that Joe Sixpack, or the angry-white-males you point out, is being screwed financially in order to support a top heavy 1 and 1/2% of all taxpayers, who David Cay Johnston calls the "Super Rich". These guys, along with the globalized multinational corporations, have shifted their tax burden onto the 'rest of us'. Time has come when this sleight of hand is now unsustainable. The middle-class has disappeared.

If you're making over $3 million nowadays you're getting a Bush administration subsidy for just being rich, the 'rest of us' pick up the tab.

Chapters 7 and 8 will have your blood boiling.

[BlueManDude]

6. I've lost my compassion for blue collar white guys

who vote against their own - more importantly their country's - interest. If these people would rather hate gays or ragheads or Barbra Streisand than do the right thing then I don't give a shit if they lose their kids in Iraq or their jobs to Bangalore. Sorry.

[Carolab]

8. They couldn't have won without rigging Ohio and Florida.

Rove KNEW they couldn't have won without rigging those votes in those states, and it was set up way ahead of time, just like it will be in all FUTURE elections UNLESS WE FIX THE ELECTION SYSTEM.

Analyze the RIGGING. The rest of this analysis is conjecture and a pointless waste of time--particularly on this forum.

[BeFree]

10. The RIGGING

You are so right, Carolab. The rest is conjecture, but we should look at how they got close enough to steal it. The M$M so trashed Kerry, that the stupid whites lapped it all up and voted against themselves.

We have 12 months to de-rig the 2006 elections. Lets hope we can do it.

[Kat45]

11. For some of these women, abortion was probably a big issue.

Religious, anti-choice women. All the brainwashing by the RW media also caused many to feel "safe" with bush; makes no sense to me, but true. And of course, Kerry probably came off as an elite snob to many of these people, unlike the good old boy dubya.

[fujiyama]

13. Maybe

the white working class IS stupid.

The people voted against their own interests this election. I guess they hate gays more than they care about their own well being.