It will come down to Clark and Edwards

[Quixote1818]

Several of us were talking and this is what we think will happen. Kerry will win New Hampshire by a hair, Clark will take second as the undecided voters will fall toward Clark and not Dean. Edwards will take just enough votes away from Dean, Clark and Kerry to take a close third. It will be touted as a three-man race at that point. On February third Clark will win Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma where he is ahead and Kerry and Edwards are way behind. Kerry will win Delaware and Edwards will win Missouri and South Carolina. Edwards will take Missouri because it is right next to Iowa and I truly believe Edwards will have more appeal than Kerry once he is considered one of the last three standing. Then it will be a two-man race between Clark and Edwards. May the best man win. I like them both.

[Maddy McCall]

1. I like all three.,..

My support for Clark just barely edges out my support for Edwards and Kerry.

Any way it goes, I am a happy voter.

[KittyWampus]

2. It's Going To Be Fun. Good Candidates All Around

except for LIEberman.... of course :)

[Kathleen04]

3. I like this scenario.

:)

I hope Clark can take hold of second in NH, but it's no easy feat to accomplish.

Also, you left out the part where they team up at the end. Clark/Edwards..Edwards/Clark. ;)

[leftist_rebel1569]

4. I could easily see that happening

although I'd rather have it be Edwards and Kerry, you won't hear a single complaint from me if it's Edwards and Clark. I don't mind Clark at all :)

[mike_c]

5. then god help us I hope the Green Party...

...nominates an alternative. Clark is a career militarist up to his eyeballs in the military industrial complex, and Edwards helped give Bush* the authority to invade Iraq, helped Congress to dodge its constitutional responsibility to declare war, and helped Bush/Ashcroft to enact one of the most damaging legislative attacks on the Bill of Rights in U.S. history.

[bowens43]

8. I could live with Edwards but not Clark.

All a person has to do is look at Clarks history to know what he is. To know that he's not the man he pretends to be.

[jmaier]

6. Nice post, Quixote

Your analysis accords pretty much with my own. If Dean is 3rd in NH then you'll see his poll numbers in the Feb 3rd states collapse because at this point they are front-runner recognition numbers. Clark is already pre-positioned well in a good number of those states. SC should fall to Edwards, possibly Missouri.

The wildcard for Kerry is later as NY and CA particularly come into play. At this point, he should win MA, DE and most of New England as well. Plus, I think Dean will stay in the race and continue to grab some double digit votes in a number of states including Michigan where early voting has already been underway.

I think that we are looking at a very REAL possibility of proportional delegate allocations all the way to the convention. Pretty interesting.

There is NO frontrunner and I don't see any of the candidates able to deliver a decisive knockout blow at this point. Here is the one long shot exception: if Clark (or Edwards) were to win NH, he starts to pile up wins and delegates.

[bowens43]

7. I think you're wrong.

It will come down to Edwards and Kerry. Clark doesn't have a chance. His numbers are poor and dropping. I predict a 4th place finish for Clark in NH.

People see right through Clark. They see him for what he is and more importantly ,for what he isn't and that's a Democrat. Here on DU he has supporters but out there in the real world, I don't know a single person who will voting for Clark in the primaries. Not one.

[jmaier]

9. Funny,

I know far more Clark supporters offline than online.

[Quixote1818]

10. Clark getting 1,000 + crouds

I think you are dead wrong. Newspapers are dumfounded by the amount of people who are coming to hear Clark speak. They are saying he is getting bigger crowds than John McCain. Clark has a superstar appeal and is seen as someone who could beat Bush. Clark has only droped two points in the last two days. I am sure that support went to Kerry.

[Justice]

13. And ARG Tracking Poll

said that his numbers on the last day went up a point - so I don't see that he is going down.

We will see.

[DJcairo]

30. went up a point, while Zogby had them heading down

The Boston Herald poll done over the last two days showed Clark slipping as well. I think he will be lucky to finish in the top three.

[Justice]

12. Where Do You Live?

I saw a crowded room full of people in Rochester NH tonight cheering on Clark.

People seemed to like what they saw.

I know lots of supporters who will vote for him next week, and in other primaries.

[Quixote1818]

17. I live in New Mexico

We called absentee ballot voters and right now the tally out of 800 people we talked to is over 400 for Clark with just under 200 undecided. That means Clark is getting well over 50% of the absentee ballot vote here.

[HereSince1628]

21. Interesting but not very informative

Who can be an absentee voter in the New Mexico Primary? That would help us figure out if there is a potential systematic bias, or other things which could confound an generalization of an interpretation.

[Justice]

24. Fairly Informative

to a Clark Supporter - thanks!

[Quixote1818]

18. Sorry I thought you were talking to me

[Justice]

25. Yes,

I am interested to know if people's perspectives are based on where they live.

So Bowen43 may live in - I don't know - where?

[goodhue]

15. yes, Kerry and Edwards will be left standing

with DK still in the race to keep them honest

[Justice]

23. Bowens43 - Where Do You Live?

I am wondering if the perspective people have about Clark is based on the state in which they live.

[bain_sidhe]

28. Ignore the drive-bys

There are a few posters who do nothing but take pot shots at various candidates. This one shoots at Clark, others target other candidates. It serves no useful purpose to engage with them.

[thalerd]

27. What are you basng that on?

You say his numbers are "poor," but he polls no lower than third in any of the upcoming states, and is currently in either first or second place in most of them.

Perhaps, just maybe, there are folks out there who believe in him ... even if you don't know them personally?

You are free to make your predictions and support whatever candidate you wish. But might I ask what you're basing these "poor and dropping" comments on?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

31. Kerry has no organization in many states and is behind him in all of

the polls except in a few states. What do you base this on?

[Mz Pip]

11. WOW

We could see a return to the 50's. Brokered conventions. Backroom wheeling and dealing.

This may not be decided until August. Don't know it that is a good thing since whoever wins will be bloodied beyond belief but it will be intgeresting political theater.

MzPip
:dem:

[goodhue]

14. not August, July in Boston

but your right it may well be a brokered convention, which is a good thing!

[Justice]

26. Very End of July

so not so far off.

[MoonRiver]

16. Interesting analysis. I can see the logic of your argument.

But I still find it a little hard to believe that Edwards would beat out Kerry. Also, Clark has an excellent chance of taking South Carolina and Missouri, IMO.

[Quixote1818]

19. Clark will stay whear he is strong

On February third everyone will go to where they are best positioned to win. Clark will go west where he is ahead. Kerry will go to Missouri and Delaware and Edwards will go to Missouri and South Carolina. Kerry won't even try to compete with Clark and Edwards in South Carolina so he will stay with states like Missouri and Delaware and probably spend a day or two in the western states. Clark will protect the west and take a stab at South Carolina.

[K8-EEE]

20. Clark/Edwards Is A Dream Ticket

Yeah I know I'm dreaming but that is one unbeatable ticket and setting up Edwards as future Prez....

[HereSince1628]

22. Yeah a southern sweep, that makes me comfortable...not

[DJcairo]

29. One problem with your scenario

I seriosuly doubt Kerry wins NH by a hair - he wins it by a landslide. Edwards is not really competing there but will get a bounce - I assume enough to get a strong third. I think Clark takes second and Dean 4th which means Dean has to drop out or face ridicule and/or constant questions about when he'll drop out. Clark and Edwards are wild cards here but I've read today that Gephardt aides are going to Kerry in droves in NH and he is actively courting them for Missouri. I also think labor naturally gravitates towards Kerry as they did in Iowa and he uses his substantial backing from Firefighters and Veterans to parlay strong working class support. If Kerry wins NH, he's got a real shot at MO which is wide open after all and a good shot at AZ, ND, and Delaware. Clark and Edwards are going to blow their respective loads on SC and will emerge somewhat weaker after that. Kerry takes MI/WA on Feb.7 no problem and this thing is then over.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

32. Clark, yes. Edwards and IWR, No.

As a Dean supporter I could vote for Clark. Not so for Edwards.