Fox News just posted new NH poll numbers

[RichV]

Don't have link or source. Sorry. They just flashed them on the screen. It was polling from just Wednesday. They warned it was a pretty small sample so the MOE would be higher than usual.

Kerry 38%
Clark 20%
Dean 18%
Edwards 9%
others...

Just indicative of the situation on the ground, I guess.

On Edit:

These are just one day (Weds) of a three-day tracking poll done by Fox. The MOE is +/-10 points. Don't know exact sample size. Take 'em for what their worth.

[Renew Deal]

1. Woh

:wow::wow::wow::wow::wow::wow:

[jenk]

2. Edwards will pass Dean soon, but WOW

Kerry at 20pts ahead of Dean!?!?!?!

I have my doubts about edwards catching clark, but I know he can catch Dean!

[Very Good Dem]

26. At this rate

I'LL pass Dean soon!

[GalleryGod]

46. Or-the GUY that looks like Mondale??

Pithy comment,friend.

Fox Poll is a Faux Poll.

[pdx_prog]

48. Then on to the south!

[JI7]

3. who did the poll ? i find this hard to believe

is it zogby, fox news, or some other ?

[RichV]

7. Didn't catch the organization... sorry

Like I said, they were flashed on the screen with info, but I didn't catch that part. Apologies. Take them with a grain of salt.

[Leilani]

39. It was Fox

But it's only a 1 day part of a 2 or 3 day tracking poll.

It was a tiny sampling, with MOE at 10%.

They said it could be looked at as a snapshot.

[Catch22Dem]

4. No shit?

Interesting. I'll be on the lookout. The whole thing is just so exciting!

[Mz Pip]

5. What a difference a day makes.

Still, I'm not putting much faith in the polls. It's not like they were so right on in Iowa.

MzPip
:dem:

[lurk_no_more]

6. Weeeeeee!

And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[meow mix]

8. nice numbers..

makes me wanna Yeeeeaaahhhrhhhgh!

[Joe the Revelator]

11. LoL nt

[CalProf]

9. This seems dubious

to me. I'm for Kerry, but when Fox says something, I'm inclined to assume the opposite is true.

[RichV]

12. Agreed.

But I saw 'em, so I figured I'd share. Like I said, take 'em with a grain of salt. But they sure did have ol' Brit Hume looking flabbergasted (sp?). And yes, he sucks.

[nathan_avery1985]

45. Yeah, but...

If you look at the full results of the tracking poll, they have Dean and Kerry in a statistical dead heat. This seems consistent with what we would expect.

[Capn Sunshine]

10. "small sample " LOL

What, the stringers at the local Fox station in Moose Skank?

[RichV]

13. Don't know.

Sorry.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. I don't buy it.

I'd need more colloboration than this.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

24. Here's several polls...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/new_hampshire_polls.html

Poll Dean Kerry Clark Edwards Lieb

RCP Average (1/18-20) 24.3% 23.5% 16.5% 7.8% 6.7%
Boston Globe/(1/19-20) 24% 27% 17% 9% n/a
Suffolk University (1/19-20) 22% 20% 15% 6% 6%
ARG Tracking (1/18-20) 26% 24% 18% 9% 7%
Zogby Tracking (1/18-20) 25% 23% 16% 7% 7%

[feckerman]

15. Kerry is quoting these numbers:

Kerry - 31
Dean - 21
Clark - 16
Edwards - 11

Seems like Clark is taking it too? The person Edwards may soon pass is Clark.

http://blog.johnkerry.com/

[RichV]

18. Those are the Boston Herald numbers

Have been seeing those all day. Interesting that Lieberman is down at 4% now. Damn. Go home, Joe.

[Bombtrack]

16. Oh please let those be real

A third place for Dean is exactly what he deserves. Let's see how the guy who says he's the only real democrat pay for his arrogance

[lurk_no_more]

36. I think it is entirely possible

for dean to pull a distant 4th if his slide continues, talk shows are now not only ridiculing him for his scream on Monday, but also for what they described as random singing of the "National Anthem" which he did Tuesday to over ride hecklers during a speech he gave in NH.


And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[JCMach1]

17. The wave will subside for Kerry... watch the weekend polling

especially anything done on Sunday/Monday.

Once people begin to think... I note quite a few thread doing just that on DU today.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

21. Yeah maybe, but the undertow's got Dean bad now

YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH!

[Leilani]

40. I think the debate

will be important. I also saw a NH reporter say most people are undecided, & these numbers are soft.

[Adjoran]

19. Those numbers are

ONE day (yesterday) out of a three-day tracking poll. MOE +- 10%. They usually don't report the one day because they are not typically accurate, the pollsters average out the three days to get a representative sample.

That said, the trend in all the three-day polls I've seen has been towards Kerry, with Dean falling and Clark steady.

[Paco]

20. Faux Stories???

Please!!! Get A Life!!! Why do you even bother. Do you expect to find a "fair and balanced" report on the Democratic Party to America over the Faux Stories channel?

:dem:

[RichV]

22. No. No, I don't.

Good grief. How many times can I drop a disclaimer? Once again, take them with a grain of salt. I see someone above had more info on the numbers. Happen to catch the organization?

[VirginiaIs4Lieberman]

32. I don't find Fox to be that bad

I despise O'Reilley, but I actually enjoy Hannity and Colmes. Good debate show almost like how Crossfire used to be.

[ringmastery]

23. BOSTON GLOBE Poll

not Bostong Heard. There is a 2nd poll. This from Boston Globe. Don't think it's released yet, but this article from NY Times mentions it. Anyone see it?

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/22/politics/22DEMS.html?ex=1075438800&en=e93075a019c961f6&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE

He spoke as two new polls showed him gaining in New Hampshire. The separate polls, in The Boston Herald and The Boston Globe, each put Mr. Kerry 10 points ahead of his closest rival, Howard Dean, though each had a margin of sampling error of close to five percentage points. Other polls released Tuesday and Wednesday showed the two in a near draw.

[RichV]

27. The Boston Herald numbers were in the blog

linked in the post I replied to. See?

"According to the latest Boston Herald poll, John Kerry has "catapulted" into a 10 point lead over Howard Dean, 31 percent to 21 percent , with Wesley Clark slipping down to 16, and John Edwards at 11."

Those are the numbers the poster pasted above.

[ringmastery]

28. I didn't ask for the Boston Herald numbers

I asked for Boston Globe. Different paper. Different poll.

[RichV]

30. Are we just not communicating well?

I just said where the numbers came from that feckerman posted above. That's all.

By the way, they're showing the numbers again.

Still not showing source, unless it's Fox. And it was Edwards at 9 and not 11. That was my mistake. Still, it did say the MOE was +/-10 which is obviously huge.

[Justice]

31. Boston Globe

For whom would you vote in the N.H. primary?
(400 likely voters, margin of error +/-5%)
Now Sun/Mon Sat/Sun Fri/Sat Tues/Wed

Kerry 27 20 14 13 12

Dean 24 28 31 30 32

Clark 17 21 23 25 23

Edwards 9 8 9 7 7

Lieberman 4 3 6 7 8

Kucinich <1 1 1 1 2

Sharpton <1 1 <1 <1 <1

Undec. 16 14 13 12 10

This is not the same as the FAUX poll.

www.boston.com

[Very Good Dem]

25. Holy whatsis!

[VirginiaIs4Lieberman]

29. Wow

If this holds and Edwards wins SC, it might be a Kerry/Edwards/Dean showdown. Of course Sharpton will stay in as well. He wants a speech at the convention!

[mohc]

33. These numbers are from Fox's own tracking poll

But is only a daily, not a 3 day rolling average. The 3-day average for their poll is:

Dean 29
Kerry 27
Clark 18
Edwards 8

MoE is 10 points on the daily.

We need to wait for a 3 day tracking poll that only includes post-Iowa results, that will happen on friday.

[shivaji]

34. DrudgeReport.com has links to a better poll IMO

[RichV]

35. Hehe

Yet again, it's that Boston Herald poll. ;-)

That thing's getting a lot of mentions in this thread!

[shivaji]

37. Boston Herald Poll numbers from wednesday:

Kerry 31
Dean 21
Clark 16Edwards 11
Poll based on 501 likely democratic primary voters
4.4% margin of error

[jsw_81]

38. Wow

If those numbers are accurate, Dean is finished. Get ready for Kerry/Clark or Kerry/Edwards.

[SOS]

49. Kerry/Edwards more likely

Clark has said he will not accept VP.
Also Edwards is not running for Senate. As VP he gets President of Senate and tie-breaking vote. Wouldn't it be great to see Edwards in Cheney's chair?

[genius]

41. Edwards and Dennis need to get some ads out there.

I want to see both opf them get high numbers in the NH primary. Good to see Kerry and Clark doing so well.

[arcos]

42. 10% MOE?!?! HAHAHAHAHA n/t

[mikehiggins]

43. Are you kidding? 10% MOE?

Even Bob the Whore Novak was embarrassed to quote a poll with an 8% MOE. So Kerry could be anywhere from 28 to 48 percent?

FAUX (the WWE of Journalism) NEWS must be getting desperate for something to hit Dean with.

What did they do? Wear out their video of the rally? I thought they had that on continuous loop.

What a scumbag outfit.

[bain_sidhe]

52. ARG numbers bear it out though...

Their one-day numbers for Wednesday show

Kerry - 29%
Clark - 21%
Dean - 17%
Edwards - 10%

Snip from site:
Beyond Ballot Preference - January 22, 2004

The sample size was increased to 302 completed interviews on January 20 and 303 interviews on January 21. The theoretical margin of error for the daily sample sizes of 300 is plus or minus 6 percentage points, 95% of the time.

Ballot .....Jan 20 ...Jan 21

Clark ........18%........21%
Dean.........24%.......17%
Edwards.....10%......10%
Kerry.........29%.......29%
Kucinich.......1%.........1%
Lieberman.....7%........7%
Sharpton......0%........0%
Undecided...11%.......15%

Of course, the three-day rolling average is more in line with some of the other polls we've seen, although Kerry has clearly overtaken Dean:

Kerry - 27% (up 3 from previous 3-day average)
Dean - 22% (down 4)
Clark - 19% (up 1)
Edwards - 9% (same as previous 3-day)

[TokenDemocrat]

44. WHOA!

But as others have pointed out, pretty large MOE. The one showing Kerry with a 10 point lead over Dean is probably most accurate.

I'm surprised Edwards isn't doing a little better though.

[newyawker99]

50. Hi TokenDemocrat!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[izzie]

47. I am off to NH right now.

Last week saw 2 large signs and that is all. Kerry and Dean. I have usually run into people in front of Markets but not this year yet. I usually say I am a NH voter and give an answer. I can not help my self. I voted in NH for years, and it took me almost 10 years to get off their voting list and dunning me for not paying their resident tax so I figure they owe me to mess up their polls.

[mmonk]

51. NPR

had some political tracking pro on that said some of Dean's support is leaving him in New Hampshire for Kerry.