Paul Krugman asks today what major distraction

[nadinbrzezinski]

will the bush boys use now that they are loosing with Social Security

Here is waht I told him today

The PNAC plan is on schedule for Iran, so they will soon switch all their attention from Social Security to Iran... mark my words, they are going to go to war with Iran by the Summer.

Of course they may intend to do this with an Air Campaign, but given that Iran actually has an armed force that is more capable... don't count on that staying only as an air campaign and this not leading to a draft....

Paul talk about your national security distraction.

Now let me fully worst case this, short of nukes of course.

We do our air attack, they shoot down some of our pilots... worst they manage to get out their subs into the gulf... those sortie subs sink two of our carriers in the midst of shipping lanes effectively blocking the entrance to the gulf to any major shipping traffic, also trapping our troops in Iraq who cannot be resupplied or reinforced using shipping lanes. By the way, this is the way most of the supplies are going in. Did I mention Naval Casualties would be the worst since oh Coral Sea or Midway?

That is your national security issue that Bush will play on... as well as the second Pearl Harbor (or is it the third one as the second WAS September 11, regardless of conspiracy theories or not... PNAC page 48 rebuilding America's Defense), that will justify that universal draft they need to continue this eternal war for eternal profit. On the plus side the troops that survive and come home will hopefully have lost their taste for war as a game. On the down side, they will come back to a destroyed economy and very much in shambles former super power. That will be Bush's legacy. (and this assumes no WW III, which now I believe he will cause)

The drumbeat for Iran has started by the way... and the stenography corp is obliging the bush boys... and not asking questions... and I wish the lapdog media started doing exposes on PNAC... what is wrong with this picture I have to go to Der Spiegel to get good exposes or the Guardian, but most Americans are in the dark about PNAC. So Paul you want to make a real difference, speak about PNAC in your Op Eds, because all they are doing is in there... and we are right on schedule with it.

[brainshrub]

1. I don't beleive the Bush Admin is going to do anything to Iran.

This is all PsyOps to put the US in a better negotiaing position with the EU.

No way are we going to Iran.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Just as I told Paul

READ the Propect for A New American Century, "Rebuildin America's Defenses."

I wish I coudl believe this is Psy Ops but it is not... the execute order, most likely, has already been signed.

[brainshrub]

5. I know they want to invade, but it's impossible feat.

If the Iraqis had welcomed the occupation with open arms I might agree; But there is no way in hell attacking Iran is going to do anything except lead to a tremendous disaster for the US Armed forces.

Iran is a wealthy theocracy with a well-financed and experienced military.

I know that PNAC would like to get their grubby little hands on Iran, but it's not physically possible.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. When dealing with true believers

reality has nothing to do with perceived facts...

Their reality and yours are very different... it is increasingly feeling like Germany late 44, or 45... offensives were still possible and it was the german people's lack of willingness that lost the war, not lack of resources. Hell Hitler was still expecting to win as late as early may, 1945.

And we do have the resources... it is called a Draft.

[brainshrub]

9. Pretending for a moment that a draft is possible:

Assuming that all the draftees were assigned to non-combat roles to allow the combat-ready troops to get into position... that would also take a solid year to pull off.

It's almost March. Even if an invasion for August is on the books, you're gonna tell me that this can get started in five months?

Just because the True Believers think it can happen, doesn't mean it's physically possible.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. Remembr about Hitler and early May of '45

this is what we are facing right now. We have had intel flights alraady taht we know off, those are to "prepare the battlefield."

Rumors abound of Spec Op teams already in the field, and in Iran... their grocery lists are easy to guess from press reports.

You DO NOT do this unless yuo are preparig for war. They are leaking like sieves again, and both Hersh and Ritter are hinting that the Execute order has bene signed. Given the two above actions we will strike, the draft will come after the fact, as it will be innevitable or we fall back. Bush will NOT fall back, not that easily...

On the bright side in a last act of defiance bush and Rummy may use a nuke, or two, or ten...

I fully believe this man will lead us straight to WW III, if we are not already there.

[calimary]

10. How'd you get to him?

I've emailed and emailed and even sent snail mail and never know whether I got through.

You did good.

Gotta keep pushing these people!

BTW - here's a story about it:

SCOTT RITTER SAYS U.S. PLANS JUNE ATTACK ON IRAN, ‘COOKED’ JAN. 30 IRAQI ELECTION RESULTS
By Mark Jensen
United for Peace of Pierce County (WA)
February 19, 2005
Scott Ritter, appearing with journalist Dahr Jamail yesterday in Washington State, dropped two shocking bombshells in a talk delivered to a packed house in Olympia’s Capitol Theater. The ex-Marine turned UNSCOM weapons inspector said that George W. Bush has "signed off" on plans to bomb Iran in June 2005, and claimed the U.S. manipulated the results of the recent Jan. 30 elections in Iraq.
Olympians like to call the Capitol Theater "historic," but it's doubtful whether the eighty-year-old edifice has ever been the scene of more portentous revelations.
The principal theme of Scott Ritter's talk was Americans’ duty to protect the U.S. Constitution by taking action to bring an end to the illegal war in Iraq. But in passing, the former UNSCOM weapons inspector stunned his listeners with two pronouncements. Ritter said plans for a June attack on Iran have been submitted to President George W. Bush, and that the president has approved them. He also asserted that knowledgeable sources say U.S. officials "cooked" the results of the Jan. 30 elections in Iraq.
On Iran, Ritter said that President George W. Bush has received and signed off on orders for an aerial attack on Iran planned for June 2005. Its purported goal is the destruction of Iran’s alleged program to develop nuclear weapons, but Ritter said neoconservatives in the administration also expected that the attack would set in motion a chain of events leading to regime change in the oil-rich nation of 70 million -- a possibility Ritter regards with the greatest skepticism.

http://www.ufppc.org/content/view/2295

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. He does not answer his emails and that I can understand

But his public emial adress is at the NYT and his name

[ashmanonar]

3. it's not the subs i worry about.

it's the incredibly powerful and fast antiship missiles, russian top of the line, that they were sold. they can hit from the coastline of their country without ever getting into the shipping lanes.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Those missiles will be taken out in the first strike

I woudl not worry abou them that much... the subs are a real threat

And yes all of this could become a rout... that is why I said, short of nukes, I woudl not pass it above these boys to use a Nuke or two if loosing

[Strelnikov_]

13. If The Iranians Have 'Dug In' Like The North Koreans Have

the 'first strike' will not accomplish much other than to initiate the war.

Also, remember all the problems finding the scuds in the 1st gulf war. That is one long coastline Iran has.

Unfortunately, I don't think the Mullah's are sitting around painting heavy metal album covers like Hussein was in the build up to the Iraq war.

The 'enemy' always gets a vote.

[ashmanonar]

14. i'd say a nuke or twenty, but that's just my personal take.

yo'ud be surprised what our planes might or might not hit in teh first strike. apparently, in iraq, during gulf war 1, they didn't get ONE confirmed scud kill during the scud hunt because of the rockiness of the terrain (radar echoes, etc). iran and iraq share similar geographical characteristics...

and although there aren't that many of those powerful russian (i forget the name, it was their up-and-coming missile before the union fell) missiles, they can do a LOT of damage. we could lose 2 carriers and approximately 6 to 8 thousand sailors in 5 minutes, before the subs get out there. once they do, and are in the gulf, it'd be a hell of a lot harder to get back in. remember: submarines make noise when moving. they're not so dangerous to find while moving. but once stopped and in place as gatekeepers, they'd be tremendously dangerous to look for and destroy. it's like having a killer ghost in the water. (i know we have better submerged technology, but sonar can't hear when a sub is making NO noise. there's just nothing in the water to find.)

and don't they have exocets from us? that combined with the russian made stuff makes them extremely dangerous to approach from seaward. their large armies make it dangerous to approach from landward. suffice to say, iran is a tough nut to crack, even for a technologically advanced military.

[McCamy Taylor]

4. If they go into Iran, Votes for Hostages gets uncovered. Will * risk

Poppy's legacy? Sure? He's Oepdipal enough.

Re: "short of nukes". They will HAVE to use nukes if they go into Iran. Iran has a fully equipped army, something Iraq didnt have, and we are stretched very thin. Get those bomb shelters ready, in case the wind is blowing out of the middle east this summer, because it may be radioactive. Oh, Europe is just gonna love the US...

:nuke:

[Vinnie From Indy]

Nukes Are Not Profitable

Supplying a ground army, that's profitable. Fighting an endless war, that's profitable.

[ashmanonar]

15. good point.

i still think we're dealing with madmen enough to use them, but they're thinking first about their profits. it won't be til EVERYTHING goes wrong when we use nukes.

[ArkDem]

8. LOL!