My take on latest Newsweek Poll: Dean leads still, Clark in firm second

[Josh]

Here's my take on all of this. I think the Gore endorsement helped Dean a lot, but then the Saddam capture made people think twice about him. Lieberman's attacks may have taken a couple of points off Dean, but the beneficiary was Clark. Lieberman came across as whiny and too politician-like by making the attacks. The thinking for some Dean supporters becomes this: Clark and Dean have the same, correct position on Iraq, but Dean lacks the military credentials to have the credibility to argue it.

See here in the new poll Clark, previously lagging for equal second with Lieberman, is now firmly in second place, with Lieberman tied for third with Al Sharpton and Kerry in fourth place behind them. (!)

The full article including the data is at http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3768353/

Here is the pollingreport.com breakdown of the info:

Dean: 26
Clark: 15
Lieberman: 7
Sharpton: 7
Kerry: 6
Gephardt: 5
Edwards: 5
Mosely-Braun: 1
Kucinich: 1
Other: 2
None: 5
Don't Know: 20

What do you all think?

[jmaier]

1. In light of the

Gore endorsement and constant media barrage about Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, etc., I find the results pretty encouraging for Clark. I think he might be weathering the storm pretty well headed into the stretch where folks finally get to vote.

[auburnblu]

2. What has happened to Kerry?

Ouch. I think the poll is great news for Clark though. If a candidate or two decides to drop out after New Hampshire and Iowa, or maybe after South carolina, Clark could really close the gap. Think you're right Joe L did not get much of a boost after the Daddam capture, sigh.

[Scott Lee]

3. He couldn't be reached for comment, as Will was interviewing him

A man's gotta do what a man's gotta do.

[Myra]

4. I think...I don't trust polls. They're just another vehicle for

Propaganda.

I appreciate your analysis Josh.
It's polls I mistrust, not you!
And certainly not MSNBC.
On edit: Meaning I mistrust MSNBC. Oy.

Why would they even poll Kucinich if they
refuse to assign a reporter to him? Grrrr.
Same for M-B.

Hm, I wonder if they'll assign a reporter to cover
Rev Sharpton now that they have him in third!
Oops...

:evilgrin:

[IndianaGreen]

5. Sharpton is polling higher than Kerry!

Way to go Al.

[Tatiana]

6. Sharpton has gotten a big bump in ALL the polls.

It's amazing and I can't figure out why no one is talking about this. Sharpton, I think, has gotten some big bumps from his debate performances.

[Myra]

8. Yeah! If he's polling higher, then Koppel should be aware...

And spend half a debate babbling about the subject.
And ask the other candidates to raise their hands if they'd
vote for him.
And he should have embedded reporters from ABC and MSNBC.
It's only proper!
Fair and balanced Ted. Fair and balanced...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. Sharpton tastes Freepy.

That's my guess.

[BenZodiac]

12. Sharpton Bump = SNL

It seems to me Sharpton's Bump came after his hosting of Saturday Night Live.

[IndianaGreen]

15. TV exposure is what helps, or hurts, candidates the most

Clearly Sharpton's appearance on SNL helped, just as Lieberman's appearance on Faux hurt him.

TV exposure is what helps, or hurts, candidates the most. These early polls are driven my what people know about the candidates, which often is directly related to their TV exposure.

This is why I am so angry at Ted Koppel, and ABC News decision to cover Dennis, Al, and Carol. If the TV networks were to give equal time to all the candidates, I can almost guarantee to you that some of those candidates on single digits would be in double digits by now, if not leading altogether!

[TSIAS]

7. This polling is interesting

It's playing out about how I expected. Unless Kerry or Gephardt are impressive in Iowa, it looks like Clark vs. Dean. I expect a head-to-head Dean/Clark matchup to be competitive.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. I previously had Edwards in that mix because of the Southern

vote.

It looks like a Dean-Clark tangle. Decided March 2.

[neverforget]

11. I like the 20% that don't know. This race is still wide open.

[Toucano]

13. But what about the 5% NONE.

What's that about?

[thinkahead]

14. Using in-depth analysis

I have concluded this poll looks pretty good for Dean

[Josh]

16. It does look good for Dean, but also for Clark -

Dean has pulled away from the Clark and the pack, and Clark has pulled away from the pack in general.

Dean is clearly in a dominant position but remember one thing: his high polling numbers, particularly in some of the Feb 3 states, depend on having all 9 candidates in the primaries, as they are now when the polls are taken.

If Kerry, Gephardt, and Lieberman all drop out after Dean takes Iowa and New Hampshire (a distinct possibility), chances are their supporters (a lot of them, anyway) will gravitate to Clark.

Think about it. Gephardt is locked in a slug match with Dean in Iowa, so Dean probably won't pick up more than 20-30% of Gephardt's voters. Similarly with Kerry in NH, where the rivalry is palpable, and Lieberman has made of his campaign by making himself the 'anti-Dean'. Clark will benefit from this should these three candidates drop out.

As it stands now, with 9 candidates in the race, Dean is in a very good position. It will be very interesting to see what happens after the first couple of candidates drop out of the race.

[TexasSissy]

17. Clark & Dean do not have same position on Hussein.

Dean stated before Hussein was caught that he wasn't sure that America would be better off w/o Hussein in power. After Hussein was caught, he said that America is not safer because Hussein was captured.

Clark has consistently maintained that, look, the world would, w/o a doubt, be better off w/o Hussein in power, but that wasn't the reason given for a pre-emptive attack on Iraq, and it diverted us from capturing bin Laden, the one responsible for the 9/11 attacks. And it has taken resources from the Afghanistan war, which is still going on and not going as well as it should because of that. And even given the fact that we're stuck being in Iraq, there wasn't an adequate plan, etc., etc.

Different views on Hussein, it seems to me. I'm not stating which view is correct, since it depends on what the listener believes. But Dean is taking some heat in the media right now because of his position on Hussein, so I'm surprised that you think their views are the same.