You gotta know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em....

[kentuck]

I'm a poker player. Dean still has a lot of chips but he's really holding a crap hand. He cannot run a bluff on this hand. It's time for him to fold it and wait for the next deal.

Time changes everything. Who knows how Kerry or Edwards will wear as the "front-runner? Maybe the people will give Dean another look when the next hand is dealt? Keep your chips and wait for another day.

The American people are basically fair-minded and there may be a backlash in a few days that might benefit the Governor. He is presently in a no-win situation.

In fact, he should skip the debate tonight. There is nothing he can win by showing up. He should issue a statement that he is going to take a few days to decide where he goes from here. This will take the focus off of him as a candidate and put the focus on whether the process is fair that has driven him down in the polls. This will create a debate about the "fairness" of the process.

In the end, he should not drop out at this time. But this would put the focus in another area of debate.

[gWbush is Mabus]

1. you are the victim of a librul media.

make an effort not to believe everything you hear

[kentuck]

9. Maybe?

and maybe this is a serious hit. I don't think it is fatal but it depends on how he plays it.

[RetroLounge]

29. Remember the Wellstone Memorial?

don't fall for it...

[joefree1]

2. Hey, you remember a guy name Bill?

>>Ominous Polls:
A look at the Gallup polls over the past few months show why Democrats are becoming increasingly nervous about putting Clinton at the head of their ticket.
In a head-to-head match up on March 20, Bush led by only 52-43 percent and Clinton was indeed within striking range. But as the weekly disclosures took their toll during the ensuing primaries, Clinton's margin fell to 54-38 percent on March 29 and then fell further to 54-34 by the beginning of April.
Edit ...
"The negatives are forming on Bill Clinton like a political stalactite, drop by drop," said veteran Democratic consultant David Sawyer. "Each drip leaves a residue that builds on his negative image."
Edit ...
Quayle campaign committee, "We're following the Napoleonic maxim: Never interfere with the enemy when they are in the process of destroying themselves."<<
http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm

"If you have no enemies, it is a sign fortune has forgot you."
- Thomas Fuller (1608 - 1661)

[soleft]

10. Thank you for posting this

You know, when the Flowers/Cuomo tapes came out, everyone figured Clinton was toast. I'm not counting him out.

[waylon]

13. He will get nailed tonight

No matter if he shows or not. If he does show, (he will) Kerry and Edwards will jump ugly with him. If he didnt show, the press would. Its a no win situation for him.

He could pull off a coup tonight if he is right minded. I hope he does!

[kentuck]

19. He gets nailed by just showing up.

in my opinion. Everyone is going to look at him as some kind of pariah.

[On the Road]

39. Dean Actually Has Everything to Gain and Nothing to Lose

even if the debate just restores a semblance of normality, it will help. If Dean gets a rousing cheer from the audience, so much the better.

Of course Dean gets nailed, but he must show up. Otherwise, it will reinforce the worst interpretation of the Iowa speech. But if he doesn't show up, he's dead.

[LuminousX]

3. If he avoids the debate

the press will say 'he is defeated.'

[kentuck]

5. Then he comes out next week and declares that....

he has decided to fight on. His supporters have been with him this far and he is not giving up.

[LuminousX]

23. By that time, he will have been defeated.

He needs to keep fighting. The future is unknown, but what is known is if he doesn't keep going, keep fighting, he will lose.

[Democrats unite]

21. Hold the presses!!!

We finaly agree on something! This is not a dig either. Dean should show up and debate just like the rest of the candidates.

[robsul82]

4. He should skip the debate and announce he's taking a break...ROTF...

That is double-A 'trocious, dude. Hope you weren't being serious.

Later.

RJS

[Cuban_Liberal]

6. I play a fair hand of poker myself.

This isn't the time to fold.

[robsul82]

11. Really.

I play as well (kinda hard to stay away here in New Orleans for college, Jersey/the city for home), and Dean has a hand that, let's say, high pairs on the board (going by Texas Hold'em, what I play) and has quite a number of outs. He shouldn't fold.

Later.

RJS

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

7. I generally agree with you, Bubbaman...

But not this time. It is all hit-piece journalism, much ado about nothing.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Good great moogly googly! No WAY he doesn't show up!!!

You never win by quitting. Not showing up will be tantamount to giving up- or seen that way. You gotta play to win.

[kentuck]

14. He is in a game of PR....He needs to outsmart them...

Can you imagine the debate if he decided to forego the debate tonight? They would ask if Dean is going to drop out of the race? Was he driven out? was he treated fairly? It's about the psychology of hte masses. I think we could pedict the route that the media would go. I think Howard could generate some sympathy for his campaign for the way he has been treated. He has no plans to drop out but they do not need to know that.

[kentuck]

15. He's not quitting...

He's changing the game. :)

[Uzybone]

35. The same way he tried to change the game

by not following the rules of the Black brown debate. It made him look foolish. If he skips this one then he will be declared dead and there is no way he will be able to make it back. It'll be a very bad move.

[KittyWampus]

12. Kentuck, No Wonder I've Always Enjoyed Your Commentary!

Fellow poker player here. Used to play with a group of guys for years (only woman with a bunch of terrific fellas).

Your analogy is pretty darn good.

Glad you made it.

Actually very useful as it helps us discuss Dean's performance and dilemma in a somewhat detached way.

Thanks, Robin

Post Script: It's a shame more people aren't building on your analogy in their replies.

[bearfartinthewoods]

16. skipping out on the debate would be disasterous, he'd look like

clark for gawd's sake!

[Ramsey]

24. I don't think he should skip it either

(But not because he'd look like Clark :-) )

But I think it would make him look like he was defeated by the results in Iowa. It could be perceived as looking weakened (on edit) and giving into the negative press.

I agree he has a bad hand to play, and he may be able to benefit from the shift in focus to a Clark-Kerry tiff. But I'd still have him do the debate.

[Jerseycoa]

17. Seriously good advice, kentuck

But it won't fly.

[kentuck]

18. I'm thinking that by the time the primary rolls around next week....

Dean may finish third or tied for fourth with Edwards, if the present trends continue. This would be disastrous. This would indeed probably knock him out of the race. He is in a free fall. He has lost nearly 40 points in some of the polls in NH. We can pretend it is all a media invention and maybe it is , but I think it is a reality. He needs to do something dramatic and he needs to do it soon.

[BootinUp]

20. pull a Perot?

No I don't think thats the right strategy. He needs to focus back on his issues, lay back a little, don't force it, but I would not recommend he perpetuates the image of cracking under the heat.

He should still talk about his strengths as far as fundraising and supporters too.

[kentuck]

22. No. I think most are missing the point.

He needs to find a way to change the debate. Instead of talking about him, they should be talking about the fairness of the process. This would be on way he could do that. He is definitely in a no-win situation.

[BootinUp]

25. The only way to get the debate changed

is to actively pursue that objective. I don't think it will change by him removing himself from the media attention. Maybe I am wrong, do you have any examples in mind where this strategy worked?

[kentuck]

32. this would be the first time!

He would not remove himself from media attention. He would simply change the media discussion. They would talk about the process and its fairness rather than talking about Dean, in my opinion.

[NashVegas]

31. 'No Win' is Better Than 'Default'

If Dean bows out of the debate tonight, the story won't be "were we too harsh in the process?" Fuck no. The story will be "Dean's a Wimp."

[kentuck]

33. I disagree.

:)

[Capn Sunshine]

26. MONEY! Chips keep you in the game

We have enough to do all 50 states and your theory about the current media darlings will be even more apparent after tonite.

Dean and his people are here for the long haul; no one is quitting anything no matter what happens in New Hampshire

[kentuck]

36. If all his supporters thought like you . Cap'n....

He could laugh it all off. However, it seems from the polls, if we beleive them, that many of his supporters are jumping ship...

[Guaranteed]

27. I think he's got a shot at a flush, though, here.

He's had an awful lot of attention paid to him over the past few days...most candidates would kill for the kind of coverage that he's getting. The key for Dean is to get out in front of it....if he can harness the energy, show that it's all in good fun, laugh it off, I think this will be a PLUS for him. It'll show that he's a good sport and has strong character.

It's all about Letterman tonight. And by the time Dean hits the debates, he'll know how Letterman went- we won't have seen the show, yet, but he'll know. That could be a VERY odd advantage for him. DEAN'S going to know what happened on Letterman....the other candidates won't! It's like knowing what the river card is going to be when the other players don't...he could set things up in the debate to play straight into the Letterman show.

[kentuck]

37. Perhaps an inside straight...

He needs to draw a seven in the middle. The odds are heavy but not impossible.

[JCMach1]

28. Time to go on 60 minutes!

It worked for Clinton...

I am being serious.

[KoKo]

30. OOPS Correction! Dean & Wife Not Being Interviewed tonight! Sorry.

On edit, friend sent me an alert that Dean & wife would be interviewed by Barbara Walters tonight. But, there's nothing on ABC's website, so don't know what happened with that.
--------------------------------------------
I don't know what you get in Dubai, but he's definitely doing a Clinton by appearing with his wife.

I disagree, Kentuck. I watched the speech after everyone else had commented and methinks you are accepting the "media spin," on this one.

[sandnsea]

34. Never count your money...

when you're sitting at the table... Dean really should keep doing what he's always done and that's exciting crowds, etc. He should just focus on HIS agenda and get people pumped up about that. Anything else draws too much attention to the "incident".

[kentuck]

38. I'm definitely swimming against the current here...

:) Just trying to offer some innovative thought to the process.