NH ARG poll -- Kerry 29 -- Clark 21 -- Dean 17 (Clark +3 Dean -7)

[MIMStigator]

January 21 numbers from poll

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[bluestateguy]

1. I'll take that!

2nd place is just fine.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. according to this Kerry's topped out at 29

while it would be very impressive for him to get the 38% he got in Iowa, that kind of number seems out of reach in crowded NH.
I'll take a win. Hopefully by more than 5 points.

[Qutzupalotl]

6. The caucus system distorts the results.

For instance, Kucinich was drawing better than 2%, but since you have to move if you're below 15%, the caucus tends to favor the front-runner, or at least someone with the fewest negatives. I'm not dissing the caucus system...it gives a boost to whoever comes out ahead there, something well deserved. It's unique. The other states are more like horse races.

I think the candidates are closer than Iowa would suggest, and this will be a long primary...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. But undecideds at 15%- I forgot to look at that

Like Iowa, a lot will go to Kerry. I predict Kerry will get 33%.

[retyred]

3. This can only mean that Clark did the right thing

by bypassing Iowa, he is connecting with the voters and finishing second or even third will give him the boost he needs and deserves.

It does my heart good to see my two guys in the top two slots in the poll.


retyred in fla
“Good-Night Paul, Wherever You Are”
So I read this book

[Joe the Revelator]

4. Great news for Clark

come out with a second place finish in NH then open of operations in the southern theater

[MIMStigator]

7. He can go all the way

to #1

:hi:

[John_H]

24. A big endorsement out of NY could seal it up for Clark and

he also needs to beef up his organization in CA

[Frederic Bastiat]

5. Hotdamn!

:bounce:

[edzontar]

8. MSNBC is much tighter--the real numbers will be this weekend

After the debate and Dean's TV offensive have sunk in.

Odd thing is, the attacks have made Dean the BIG story in NH and the nation...which could be a disaster, but also a blessing in disguise.

[West Coast Democrat]

17. You have to admit these are good numbers for Clark

NH is a swing state we barely lost last time. Someone like Clark could do very well with Independents in NH--and don't forget that Indies are allowed to show up at the polls to vote in NH.

[Loren645]

10. I'll kick this one! :)

I'm so selective.

Hey, it's politics!
Go Wes!

[MidwestTransplant]

11. Those numbers aren't up on the site yet?

[MIMStigator]

14. They are scroll down to the one day numbers past the 3 days

:hi:

[MidwestTransplant]

12. Those numbers aren't up on the site yet?

[Hawkeye-X]

13. Polls = crap

300 voters a day? My grandmother's funeral had that much.

Hawkeye-X

[Leilani]

21. All your negativity

is bad for your health.

You should lighten up!

[teevee99]

22. sour grapes

n/t

[Jerseycoa]

15. January 21 daily is 21%

19% three days Jan 19-21

[MidwestTransplant]

16. The MOE is 6%

on an individual day.

[MIMStigator]

18. Dean's organization is hurting him

reports that they are too obnoxious or don't know what they're doing. He might come in 4th

[bluestateguy]

19. Hmmm

If Dean finishes third he is in big trouble. if he finishes fourth his campaign is over.

[bain_sidhe]

20. Expanded info

For those who can't get to the site. The one-day numbers for Wednesday show

Kerry - 29%
Clark - 21%
Dean - 17%
Edwards - 10%

Snip from site:
Beyond Ballot Preference - January 22, 2004

The sample size was increased to 302 completed interviews on January 20 and 303 interviews on January 21. The theoretical margin of error for the daily sample sizes of 300 is plus or minus 6 percentage points, 95% of the time.

Ballot .....Jan 20 ...Jan 21

Clark ........18%........21%
Dean.........24%.......17%
Edwards.....10%......10%
Kerry.........29%.......29%
Kucinich.......1%.........1%
Lieberman.....7%........7%
Sharpton......0%........0%
Undecided...11%.......15%

Of course, the three-day rolling average is more in line with some of the other polls we've seen, although Kerry has clearly overtaken Dean:

Kerry - 27% (up 3 from previous 3-day average)
Dean - 22% (down 4)
Clark - 19% (up 1)
Edwards - 9% (same as previous 3-day)

[Leilani]

23. Wonderful news!

I hope the debate goes well tonight.

It's obvious, barring disaster, Kerry is #1

Race is for #2 and #3

[Nashyra]

26. On January 31st

The El Dorado Dems for Clark have secured a table in front of the local grocery store in Lake Tahoe. Go CA Dems!

[Hawkeye-X]

27. Yup. it will be disaster after disaster

For the frontrunners. Clark, Kerry, and Edwards will be polling in the teens while Dean grabs NH in a resounding victory/comeback.

[sleipnir]

25. Odd how Edwards is getting little to no bounce from IA

This confirms what I've feared, that Edwards won't do well in a lot of the Dark Blue, Northern states. I hate to use that canard, but I don't think that Edwards can win the North easily. They're all for Dean, Clark, Kerry and no one seems to be motivated towards Edwards. I just find it very odd, but whatever. I thought he'd at least be up to 11-14%, but there's still a lot of undecided. Never thought he'd still be fighting off Lieberman, for fourth place. That's not a good sign for me when it comes to Edwards' campaign.