I honestly think Dean can survive a second place showing in NH

[WI_DEM]

but not third place.

John Kerry is getting his bounce from Iowa. Unlike, '92 when Bill Clinton dropped 15-points in the polls when the bimbo erruptions began which led him to appear with Hillary on 60 Minutes--Dean doesn't have as much time to recover. It is good he is going on "Primetime" and "Letterman" hopefully he will present a canddiate who can laugh at himself and at the over-kill.

More important Dean must do well--not only survive--but do well in tonights debate. Lots of people are still undecided in NH--many former Dean supporters who may need reassurance to come back on board. Unlike other debates--I think many people will be watching. This will be his last best chance to connect with them. He should ignore the attacks which will be leveled at him and concentrate on his record in Vermont: health care for kids, prescription drugs for the elderly, jobs, and balancing budgets. He should ignore the Democrats running against him and level his fire squarly on Bush.

If the latest tracking polls are correct, Kerry is opening a solid lead and Dean is slipping. I think he can still win it, but a solid second would also not necessarily eliminate Dean either. It is improvement over a third place showing in Iowa. It will show he can come-back (Remember Clinton didn't win either Iowa or NH and he went on to get the nomination). Iowa eliminated Gep because he clearly went far below expectations and didn't have any place to go or money to compete any further. Dean on the other hand, has organizations in several states and still plenty of money--including about a million bucks raised since the Iowa setback. Third place though behind either Clark or Edwards would be a disaster and if that happens I'm afraid Dean should look for an exit policy. But if he does come in second in NH he will still need a win some place to regain momentum and New Mexico and Arizona may be the most likely.

Please if you disagree with this assessment do so in a positive way rather than mocking Dean and/or his supporters. Thank you.

[Democrats unite]

1. Dean will Survive NH, in what ever place he takes...

It's the southern States IMO that will make or break Howard Dean.

[quinnox]

2. I think Dean will continue if he places second

He will see what happens Feb. 3.

If the results on that day are not good, then Dean will probably consider his options.

[copithorne]

3. Before Iowa...

The only two candidates who were viable for the nomination were Dean and Clark. Kerry and Edwards had no national support. They were not organized in the February states. They were not advertising in the February states. Their poll numbers in every February state were low single digits.

We haven't had any evidence that that's changed. It's still a fact that Dean is the best organized, probably has the most money and has a dedicated group that will win delegates in every state.

[kentuck]

4. Sure, but can he survive a third or fourth?

Which is very possible...

[Buffler]

9. I predict a 4th place finish

for Dean. 4th place!

At which point he is finished and will be rarely seen in public for his remaining days.

[Hawkeye-X]

5. Not only he will survive NH

He will emerge victorious, taking away Kerry's momentum and using it to win SC and the other Feb 3rd states.

So much for Iowa.

Hakweye-X

[JaneQPublic]

26. Clinton finished 3rd in Iowa and 2nd in New Hampshire

And, I'm not sure, but I doubt Clinton had Dean's resources, e.g., money, Internet organization, and hundreds of thousands of volunteers.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

6. I Think You're Right

Dean can survive #2. I think #3 will present enormous hurdles, however.

DTH

[DianeK]

7. dean will definately survive

very well...that hubbub over that speech in iowa is a great big nothing..this just happens to be the nothing issue we are discussing this week, next week it may be all about kerry and clark trying to out militarize each other or edwards negative emails about the other candidates

[Buffler]

11. Big nothing?

that hubbub over that speech in iowa is a great big nothing

A big nothing? His poll numbers are sinking like a lead ballon. His negative numbers are taking off like a rocket. And it all happened over night. It wasn't gradual.

[HereSince1628]

18. Yes, he's fallen hard in the polls, but...

I think its hard to separate the influence of the 3rd place finish from the rally cry. The polling data available to us to this point just doesn't provide a way to do that.

Nonetheless, Dean can't do anything about the finish except try not to repeat it. We can expect him to modifying the message, modify his tone and demeanor, and look for an opportunity to diffuse the issue of the battle cry.

[HFishbine]

8. "fire squarly on Bush"

Good advice.

[Mz Pip]

10. It's all about expectations

Up until a week ago, Dean was expected to win Iowa or at least pull a close second behind Gephardt. The fact that he came in a distant 3rd has more to do with his slipping in the polls than his "I Have a Scream" speech.

Dean was expected to win NH by a huge margin. It will be a huge blow to his campaign if he comes in 2nd. He's spent nearly 2 years campaigning in NH and IA. A 2nd place finish would be very demoralizing. If he can't win in states he's invested so much time and money in, how can he win in the South with so little momentum?

MzPip
:dem:

[Buffler]

13. What happens

It will be a huge blow to his campaign if he comes in 2nd.

What happens if he comes in 3rd? Or 4th as I am predicting?

[Mz Pip]

16. If he comes in

3rd or 4th he will be finsihed. He will have zero momentum going intio February. Undecideds will go to another candidate making it next to impossible for him to recover.

I don't like to do predictions, since I am rarely right, but this may well come down to two candidates - Kerry and Clark. Then the South will matter so much more than any of us thought possible.

MzPip
:dem:

[kentuck]

15. Actually, an excellent point.

his third place finish in Iowa was before his "speech".. In the end, the "scream may be the luckiest thing to happen to him...because it will get him name recognition in every race, regardless of how he does in the previous race.

[HereSince1628]

12. I sort of agree with all the above

This debate is very important for the bottom of the field. There are very likely 3 candidates not continuing on after NH. That's the nature of this process of elimination.

Dean needs to be gracious to Clark, Edwards, and Kerry (alphabetical, ok?), and needs to be careful not to be baited by the candidates with less support and little to lose.

Personally, I'd like to seem him work the battle cry into a humorous response that pokes fun at himself.

[LuminousX]

14. I agree, but it makes his Feb 2 showing more important

As long as 2nd is against Kerry. If it is 2nd against Clark, I think Feb 2nd will be very hairy for Dean.

[Bolo Boffin]

17. I agree

A second or first place will show the campaign has regained its footing, but a third or below will lock in this "imploding" meme like an albatross. It's something that Dean may yet overcome, with his strong organization and funding, but a finish any lower than second will initiate a feeding frenzy.

[adamrsilva]

19. He can survive second.

But I would think it unlikely he could win the nom with that, because it's highly doubtful he would do well enough in the Feb 3 primaries.

Third or lower he could not survive.

[Meldread]

20. I agree. A lot is on the line tonight.

I think the change in tactics is going to work in his favor. I think all the negative news coverage is going to work in his favor as well. Think on this: People are writing his political obituaries early. They are tossing him aside. Imagine if he wins NH. I think if he wins NH it's going to mark the end of the Lieberman Campaign, going to put a serious spike in the tires of the Clark Campaign, and seriously damage the Edwards campaign. It'll come down to Kerry and Dean in the end, I think. It'll be "Come Back Kerry" vs. "Come Back Dean".

I like my politicians honest, upfront, and full of compassion. I like my politics cut-throat.

There is an old saying: "The greater the struggle the greater the victory." We struggle now, only to achieve an even greater victory later.

[overground1]

21. Bill clinton placed 3rd in Iowa, 2nd in New Hampshire - it's not over yet!

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/000487.html

Dean, more than any other candidate, is prepared for a nationwide race.
Dean still has the most delegates and the most money. Unlike the other candidates, Dean is not a regional candidate. He is still highly competitive in every state, placing either 1st or 2nd. This is not a race for "winning" the most states, but instead getting the most delegates and sustaining the finances to run a protracted campaign.

[Dookus]

29. Yes...

But Clinton didn't really run in Iowa against Harkin, and his showing in New Hampshire was unexpectedly GOOD.

A second or third for Dean will be unexpectedly BAD.

There's a big difference between a little-known coming from behind and the frontrunner slipping away.

[TexasSissy]

22. Nah. He'll keep going til he runs out of $$$ and others drop out.

It ain't over til it's over. And it won't be over until after primaries at beginning of March. He'll still be in the game even with a 3rd place in NH.

[leyton]

23. Survive for what?

If a poor performance in Iowa creates a poor performance in New Hampshire, poor performances in both states will create poorer performances in the Feb. 3 states. He can stay in the race for all 50 states, but he won't win them. He's got downward momentum.

[adadem]

24. He has the money

to survive for awhile. I don't see him dropping out as I don't think it's his nature to give up.

[genius]

25. I hope Dean's out of the running because I don't think he can win in

November. WE all saw the laughing stock he made out of himself Monday night. He was just being Dean. After the nomination, the news media will take off the gloves and no one who can't control his mouth should be our candidate.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

27. Another possibility

Assuming he can hang in there, Dean could stay in the race and let everyone declare his candidacy finished, thereby taking the spotlight off of him. He could then try to hang around third place and let the two guys at the top (Kerry & Clark I'm guessing) attack each other nonstop over the next few weeks. One of those two drops out or is forced out. Dean slips into second place by default. I cannot guess who else would be left at this point, but I'm guessing that three or four candidates will be the only ones left by this point in the primaries, say two or three weeks from now. Basically, this is a variation on the strategy that worked for Edwards in Iowa: Stay out of the fracas and float to the top, or close to it.

Dean then only has two or three opponents left, and that is much better averages than eight against one. I could see him pulling it out at that point and emerging victorious.

This is just a theory, nothing more. Take it with a grain of salt.

The one prediction I will make with confidence however is this: Whoever DOES get the nomination has the fight of his life ahead of him. This is going to get very, very fucking ugly, even if Dean drops out tomorrow. Bet on it.

[John_H]

28. He won't survive the south and a third place finish in NH