PoliticsNH.com: Kerry's been surging since before Iowa

[Feanorcurufinwe]

By WALTER ALARKON ([e-mail])


Jan. 22 -- Sen. John Kerry's surge to the top of New Hampshire polls may have started when he was still in Iowa. Many polls now show Kerry in the lead. But some had Kerry gaining support in New Hampshire in the days before the Iowa caucuses.

"There's been somewhat of a bump from Iowa, but not a substantial one," said David Paleologos, Suffolk University pollster. Paleologos said that Kerry has doubled his support since early January, when he was at 12 percent in the Suffolk University poll. Kerry has the support of 27 percent of likely Democratic voters in the latest Suffolk poll. "The lion's share really came during movement in Iowa," Paleologos said.

<snip>

Wrighton said that the Kerry campaign's emphasis on tone and electability may have won over voters. "I think Democrats are concerned about the current president, and they're using personality and demeanor as a test to decide the better candidate," Wrighton said. Bob Squires, a teacher from Gloucester, Mass., said that he's been on board with his senator for months. "Kerry's tough," Squires said. "I've seen him heading committees in the Senate for years. Iowa just refreshed my faith."

Kerry's momentum stemming from Monday's victory has also seemed to influence voters.

<snip>

Arthur Jones, a resident of Newmarket, said that he was leaning toward retired Gen. Wesley Clark before Kerry's Iowa win. "I've heard on the news that Clark's the only one who can beat Bush," Jones said. "But then Kerry's on fire now after Iowa. At least it pushed me to give him a second look."
http://www.politicsnh.com/archives/pindell/2004/january/1_22Kerry.shtml

[KittyWampus]

1. They're Pushing Kerry So Hard

it will hopefully backfire along with Kerry's "Bagpipe March" to the debate tonight.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. politicsnh.com 'pushing Kerry'? lol

You obviously are unfamiliar with their coverage.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. Of course.

New Hampshire was once Kerry's to lose, It was supposed to be almost a safe state for him. But "lose it" (for awhile) he did. When Kerry got swamped by Dean, some genuine Kerry supporters moved on to a second choice, for many that was Clark. There was news growing out of Iowa for almost two weeks that support for Kerry was building there. With that encouragement, some original Kerry backers moved back to him. They didn't need to wait for the Iowa win, they just needed to fell that Kerry was still in the race. Reporting from Iowa prior to the caucus gave them the hope they needed to go back to their man.

Support Kerry is picking up now may include a higher mix of new supporters.

[Nicholas_J]

4. In every New Hampshire Poll

Kerry is now either past Dean or statistically even with him when less than A month ago Zogby had stated that there was not possible scenario in which he could possibly imagine Kerry's campaign reviving.

Gallup Tracking

1/18-20

Dean 30%
Kerry 28%
Clark 19%
Edwards 9%
Lieberman 8%
Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 0%
undecided ?%

1/17-19

Dean 32%
Kerry 25%
Clark 21%
Edwards 7%
Lieberman 7%
Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 1%
undecided ?%

MoE 4 %


All other polls indicate the same Kerry momentum and Dean falling in the polls against Kerry.

Zogby International Tracking

1/19-21

Kerry 27%
Dean 24%
Clark 15%
Edwards 8%
Lieberman 6%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%
undecided 17%

1/18-20

Dean 25%
Kerry 23%
Clark 16%
Edwards 7%
Lieberman 7%
Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 0.1%
undecided 16%

MoE 4%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/NHPoll.htm

Pretty much all of the polls over the last 48 hours show the same thing, with Kerry now at a statistical Dean heat with Dean or passing him as indicated in the Zogby poll. This is exactly mirorring the situation in Iowa during the week prior to the caucuses, with Deans lead slowly dropping, and Kerry's lead advancing far more rapidly. in most cases Kerry rising 3 points per day to Dean dropping one or two points per day.

The article is correct about Kerry beginnning to move up in New Hampshire during the week prior to the caucus, but it was againg, moving along with Kerry's advances in tracking polls in Iowa, as Kerry started moving up in the Iowa polls, the next day saw and equivalent rise in his polling numbers in New Hampsire, making it apparant that New Hampsire voters pretty much are beginning to have the same perception of the candidates and their campaigns as the voters in Iowa.

Even Dean is beginning to think in terms of losing N.H., as the day after his loss in that Iowa, he made comments of not needing to win in New Hampshire in order to remain a viable candidate.

I wonder if his own internal polling is starting to reflect what they did in the last days in Iowa?

[mzmolly]

5. Yep, Kerry's got the big "M"

can he keep it? We shall see.... :shrug:

[Nicholas_J]

6. It seems that he is.

With every speech that Dean goves in New Hampshire, his polls the following day seem to drop 1-2 points while he was well ahead of Kerry, and even Clark was Well ahead of Kerry in N.H. as late as the weekend before Iowa, when Kerry surged forward in Iowa, and the polls began reflecting the exact same thing in New Hampshire. every pll now has Kerry in a statistical dead heat with Dean, but Deans momentum is defintely downward, and Kerry's is decidedly upward with no indications of either of these trends stopping anytime soon.What hurts Dena is that the period between Iowa and New Hampshire is much shorter thn it has been in the past, one week rather than two.

We shall see, is correct, but the general oppinion is that Dean must have as stunning a victory in New Hampsire as Kerry's was in Iowa for even a win in New Hampshire to do Dean any good and stop him from falling behind on super tuesday. A slight win in New Hampshire will not do it, and even Dean has mentioned the possibility of not winning in New Hampshire, stating that he does not need to win in that state to remain a viable candidate.