New ARG Poll numbers up tonight-JK 31, WC 20, HD 18, JE 11

[DJcairo]

They just put this out. I would presume it's pre-debate since I don't see how you call 200 people in an hour. IN () are yesterdays tracking numbers. Note: This is a 3-day average so it is the 3 day track that is all post-Iowa.

Jan. 20-22

Kerry 31 (27)
Clark 20 (19)
Dean 18 (18)
Edwards 11 (9)

As a Kerry supporter I was initially a little nervous about a late surge by Clark but after his less than stellar (I thought) debate performance tonight I think he's finished. My bet is Edwards comes in third and Dean finishes fourth.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[sandnsea]

1. I thought you were a Dean supporter?

I guess that waffle site had some unintended consequences. :-)

[DJcairo]

2. I had given up on Kerry, but he;s the only one I worked for

gave money too and supported for months. I realize I might sound like a fair weather friend but I'm as excited as anyone for Kerry.

[sandnsea]

9. Well hey,

I'll be rubbin' it in for a while! :-)

[VolcanoJen]

3. Edwards siphoned off a few undecideds, it seems

Great news for Clark too... but ARG is a pretty volatile poll.

In a few more days, we'll know for sure.

[arewethereyet]

4. interesting

but clearly a few days to season are in order but based on this and tonight I'd call it

Kerry with breathing room
Dean and Edwards interchangable at 2 and 3
Clark unless Lieberman is a big beneficiary of Clark's demise.

[bain_sidhe]

19. HUH?

Clark moves into second and you're calling it a "demise"? What are you smoking, and where can I get some?

[arewethereyet]

29. Clark did not "move" anywhere

the floor lowered itself to him.

Dean is free falling down to your guy, Kerry is skyrocketing away from your guy, Edwads is likely moving up but, again, its too early to tell.

Clark and Lieberman are holding steady and no intoxicants make that a good thing.

[KittyWampus]

5. Clark Has Been Trending Up Again

[DJcairo]

8. He hasn't really, he was at 24 a week ago

He's takena few points from Dean's quick dive, but after tonight I'm not sure how well he holds up. He certianly isn't going anywhere fast considering he';s actually lower than he was a week ago.

[KittyWampus]

23. Yes, He Has. But If It Makes You Feel Better To Ignore It

go right ahead.

[poopyjr]

6. Huge for Clark if true <nm>

[gulliver]

7. Clark moves into second.

And, for the record, there is no way Clark did poorly in that debate. All of the candidates had shaky moments, but Clark and Dean were the only ones with strong ones too. And Clark's Moore/AWOL exchange will be the only thing remembered ina couple of days. Clark batted that one out of the park.

[Kahuna]

13. Plus, Edwards bombed on the Islam question...

That poses the question, how prepared is he to take over as commander-in-chief.

[poopyjr]

18. He should have talked about how Islam is a peaceful religion with a small

number of militant radicals. Maybe he doesn't know?

[Leilani]

21. And he completely screwed up

Defense of Marriage Act.
Evidently he did not understand what was in original bill.
Post debate discussion has mentioned this.

[DJcairo]

24. Clark fumbled nearly every question he got!!!!

Everyone watching with me thoguht so., It was embarassing and he is weak now.

[DJcairo]

15. I disagree, Clark had some poor moments being repeated by the talking head

Kerry had some very elequent moments about Nixon and the mall and his things about MTBE. You guys have got to learn that Dean and Clarkaren't the only ones here and they may likeyl be done after NH.

Clark just recites his lines and isn't evena Dem. That stuff he has said and teh fundriasers he's attended for Bush ought to tell you that.

[The Magistrate]

30. Do Give It A Rest, Mr. Cairo

Gen. Clark was asked that twice tonight, by Mr. Jennings, and in a hostile fashion by Hume. His answers were excellent, and will convince the people; he will not be asked that much in public again. Even here on this forum, there are a great number of life-long Democrats who are not bothered in the least over Gen. Clark's allegiance.

[minkyboodle]

10. Is 200 people a normal sample size

I'm posting this admitting I don't know much about polls except I view them skeptically but is 200 calls an average sample size? That seems really small to me. Can anyone confirm if this is an average size that polls like this use or smaller than usual? Thanks.
Scott

[DJcairo]

16. The sample is 800

[minkyboodle]

26. thanks

for the clarification.... I guess 800 is adequate although I really wouldn't know either way :)
SCott

[incapsulated]

11. Uh, remember Kerry's Iowa debate performance?

It was dreadful. I thought it was the nail in the coffin.

Well, I guess one bad debate isn't all that meaningful is it?

[MIMStigator]

12. huge for Clark, bad news for Edwards

eom

[Kahuna]

14. I predicted the other day that Dean would finish fourth..

We shall see in a few days.

[ringmastery]

17. Edwards jumped 2 points in 1 day

Do you have any idea what he polled today to skew the 3 day average up? 14% maybe?

[mohc]

20. he was at 10 for yesterday's daily

And for him to have moved from 8 to 9 on the 20th, he was probably at 10 on the 20th as well. That would put today's daily at 13 or 14. He is now within striking distance of Dean who was at 17 in yesterday's daily.

[megaplayboy]

22. The good news for Dean....

...expectations are lowered a bit now, so if he can just come back up a few points, the momentum starts to swing back his way.

We'll see if the trifecta of the debate, the Judy Steinberg piece on ABC, and the Letterman appearance help him a bit. Anything that doesn't involve him kicking a puppy on live TV probably helps him, since it starts to push the "screamin' Dean" meme off the radar...

[mitchum]

25. kick for wonderful news

[DJcairo]

27. Clark is trending between 19-21 in NH

That's where he has been for the last three days. Many polls (Boston Herald, and Zogby among them) show him actually sliding a point a day.
Perhas ARG has a larger sample size that includes more undeclared or independent voters. In fact, of the current sample, nearly a third are "undeclared" which I think inflates Clark's numbers to an extent. I doubt a third of teh voters on Tuesday will be undecided but I could be wrong.

[mitchum]

28. Kicking this because it feels so good

[snyttri]

31. Clark has built up a strong personal positive rating in N.H. that could

get him ahead of a next-door neighbor candidate.

[mitchum]

32. kicking for a fellow DU-er

AND BECAUSE IT STILL FEELS SO GOOD