AOL Straw Poll states pretty compelling argument for nominating Edwards

[AP]

http://www.electionguide04.com/virtual_primaries.adp

Have you all looked at this?

Edwards is winning in 7 southern states. Kerry has FL, VA and WV (Edwards is behind him in each state by, respectively, 7, 4 and 3 points).

Clark has TN with Edwards right behind him by 1 pt. Clark has his own state, Ark over Edwards in second 48:16. For Comparison, Edwards has NC 50:15:10: 9 over Kerry, Lieberman and Clark, respectively.

What have we been talking about for months? The Dem better win at least one southern state, and ideally 5 (no Dem has won the race without winning 5, however, Gore didn't win any and lost by only 18 EVs).

According to the AOL straw poll, which lets all members (regardless of party) vote once (but doesn't give Bush as an option), Edwards is significantly stronger than any other candidate in the south. He's even stronger in his home state than Clark is in his. Where Edwards isn't in first place in a southern state, he's in second place (which is VERY interesting -- you'd think Clark would have been beat him into second place in at least one of the states, FL, VA or WV; however, I can't imagine anyone other than Edwards coming in second in Ark and Tenn, where Clark is leading).

All those other liberal states in the NE and CA: Dems are going to win those with ANY candidate, so I'm not so worried about Edwards not being first in those states. What matters is that Edwards is very competitive in every state Dems lost in 2000.

Another interesting thing about this poll is that people have known Edwards for about 4 days now.

The bottom line: Edwards is looking like the best candidate to win the south, and therefore, the country.

[BurtWorm]

1. Wow! If it convinced you, it must be compelling!

;)

[AP]

5. I've compelled DU'ers to donate $650 to Edwards since Monday,

so I'm on a high right now -- I'm feeling that I do know a little something about what's a compelling argument and what isn't. I think this map is a pretty compelling argument.

Ignore at your peril.

[BurtWorm]

6. Advance ignoring warning is under consideration.

Thanks for the heads up. ;)

[AP]

8. I know. I know. It must be very discouraging for you to have to deal with

these arguments.

[BurtWorm]

11. It was a joke!

Sheeesh!

[AP]

14. so was my reply.

[BurtWorm]

17. No kidding?

;)

[aquart]

2. AOL?

Not a source I feel comfy about, you know?

[Forkboy]

3. Nothing relating to AOL is compelling in any way

ever.

[AP]

4. Not a good enough reason to ignore it.

[UnAmericanJoe]

7. I don't know what relevence the poll has

But every single time I see Edwards speak I want him to be the nominee more.
He is a VERY impressive candidate. The youth and inexperience scare the hell out of me, but there is just something about him.

A friend of mine recently described the feeling as "Kennedyesque."

He inspires me more than any other candidate for sure. Whether that is enough or not, I don't know.

[Forkboy]

12. It is for me

[MercutioATC]

9. Heeheeheehee! An AOL straw poll? Heeheeheehee.

You're kidding, right?

Now AOL is running internet polls that are MORE valuable than the rest (which are generally worthless, anyway)? Please...

[AP]

13. You can only vote once, and you need to have an AOL account.

They do it state by state and there are really no surprises. Over 30K or 40K have voted.

I'm sure the demographics skew rich and white, and maybe slightly more conservative, but there's little reason to think that it's too far from being, at the very least, useful.

It's not even clear how you vote. It looks like you have to log on directly from your AOL account.

[MercutioATC]

20. You DO have to be an AOL member. I could view, but not vote.

I'm asking how an AOL poll is any more valid than any other internet poll (which are notoriously unreliable because internet use is slanted toward the young and affluent).

NO internet poll (including MoveOn's poll last year which MY candidate won) reflect anything resembling real support among the general voting population.

Hell, if Zogby was so wrong in Iowa, how can ANYBODY tout the results of an online poll?

[AP]

22. The last Des Moines Register Poll was right on in terms of placement.

By the way.

If it isn't a case where everyone can vote, maybe they are doing some kind of sampling. It might be even more representative than we know.

[MercutioATC]

23. You didn't cite the Register, you cited AOL.

After Iowa (o.k., even before Iowa) I'm done living and dying by polls...especially online polls.

[AP]

24. You said 'even Zogby was wrong' and I'm saying the LAST publicized poll

was actually showing the trend which manifested itself in the caucus results.

[MercutioATC]

26. I said that in the context of asserting the inaccuracy of ONLINE polls

(like AOL's)


As far as ARG, even a stopped clock is right twice a day...

[AP]

27. I didnt' realize that Zogby ONLY did online polls. I thought you were...

...expanding your distaste for polling by throwing in a standard poll.

Also, I'm not even sure how one participates in this AOL Straw Poll, so I'm not ready to dismiss it out of hand as I would if it were, say, Wolf's poll.

[MercutioATC]

30. We seem to have a misunderstanding....again.

Zogby does phone polls.

Zogby did not accurately predict the Iowa results.

Phone polls are generrally considered to be much more accurate than online polls (when conducted by a reputable polling firm)

My statement was "Hell, if Zogby was so wrong in Iowa, how can ANYBODY tout the results of an online poll?" This was meant to mean that if Zogby, a generally respected phone-polling firm (actually, they use tracking polls, but whatever) was wrong, how could you trust an online poll.

I really don't know why this is so difficult...

[AP]

34. I presume Zogby and DMR poll the same way. So I pointed out that DMR

was the last poll before the caucuses and it tracked the trend.

My point was, hell if DMR's polls got the trend right, maybe polls aren't so bad.\

And since it's not really clear how you vote in this one, maybe its methodology is OK.

And maybe it says something worth considering.

I really don't know what is so difficult about THAT.

[Egnever]

32. Being an AOL subscriber in and of itself proves a persons ignorance

I should actually pay AOL for the amount of buisness I have goten repairing computers destroyed by thier software.

[bluestateguy]

10. I just voted

The damage to Dean appears to be nationwide. If Republicans were Freeping that poll they would be voting for Dean, as he is perceived to be the least electable major candidate.

[AP]

28. How did you vote?

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

15. Edwards could probably clean up in the south

I have no doubt we could put Edwards in the WH.

[sandnsea]

16. Edwards by 2 pts???

Alot of those Edwards wins, Kerry was just 2 points behind. A little information could turn that around quickly. Goes to show, Kerry can compete in the south just as well as Edwards.

Yeah, we're moving into it... :-)

[Bertrand]

18. This is an unscientific online poll

You shouldnt formulate your opinions based on them.

[Zan_of_Texas]

19. I don't believe that poll.

I looked at a number of states' results. There was almost NO variability in the candidates' standings, and percentages, state by state. I find that odd.

The real world is more variable than that.

Just my opinion.

[AP]

21. Which states are you talking about. I think the breakdown I did above

shows some variabliltiy. It also shows some consistency in terms of Edwards's strength in the house, but you'd expect that.

[Demo Gog]

25. John Reid Edwards is the one.

He can win it all. It's as simple as that. He's not the next Clinton. He's not the next Kennedy. He's the Democrat of the future. And he will not disappoint.

[UGABrother]

29. great quote at the bottom

Joseph Campbell is one of my heroes. Where did you lift that from?

[Demo Gog]

33. Campbell's great.

Originally it's from "Masks of God, Volume IV," but it's also quoted in "A Language Older Than Words" by Derrick Jensen (a pseudo-environmental/philosophical masterpiece).

[snyttri]

31. AOL is a very limited universe and straw polls are very unreliable of

themselves. I'm sure the North Carolina trial lawyer straw vote on AOL is overwhelmingly Edwards.

[AP]

35. They have more subscribers than ANYONE (right?)

[HFishbine]

36. Edwards winning in 7 states?

Anything other than an Internet poll to support that? Heck, I'd settle for a real poll that shows Edwards leading in even one state.

[HFishbine]

37. Of course

this "poll" doesn't include republicans, un-registered voters or children, right? It's a poll of likely democratic voters, right?