Argh!! It's the ARG NH poll update! And bad news for the doctor

[Bucky]

The ARG poll carries some bad news for Governor Dean.



Earlier this week on my blog I said the race was going to go one of four routes. Now I know which one. I think we're looking at a Clark-Kerry fight unless Edwards can work some more magic in some states besides South Carolina.

[Indiana_Dem]

1. Doesn't the poll say 31% undeclared!?!? n/t

[Bucky]

5. No. What is says is 31% for Kerry. The sampling is 69% Dem, 31% Indie

But they call independents "undeclared" because they haven't declared their party affiliations.

[isbister]

2. Kerry’s favorable is 77%

his unfavorable is 14%, and 9% are undecided. Wow!

[Bucky]

6. Agreed. Kerry is THE story right now. Grrr, just you wait till Oklahoma.

Hee hee. I'm actually pleased with this match up. I think Clark's the stronger contender, but if I'm wrong I'm not worried.

[jfxgillis]

13. I just don't see how Clark gains traction against Kerry

Dean/Clark or Edwards/Clark, the track to differentiation would be fairly clear, but Clark basically entered the race to fill the "not vulnerable on the military" slot Kerry APPEARED to have vacated as Dean surged.

[mikehiggins]

37. Clark is more the "Un-Kerry" more than the "Un-Dean"

He's an outsider and Kerry is a consummate insider.

He's a liberal southerner and Kerry is a liberal Yankee.

Both are part Jewish and pro Israel.

Both are veterans.

Both are anti-(some)wars

Kerry has more hands-on experience in government (see 1)

Clark has more hands-on experience in international negotiations.

Kerry WAS in the military thirty years ago.

Clark WAS a four star general less than thirty months ago.

Clark makes misstatements often because he is unfamiliar with how to frame his comments.

Kerry avoids misstatements by being overly cautious in what he says and how he says it.

[jfxgillis]

40. I don't disagree with most of that that assessment

I just don't see where the differences resonate with Dem primary voters.

Clark has a bunch of tv material showing grainy footage from VN. Kerry has a grainy footage from VN.

And Oh BTW, carrying four-stars and holding offices like the European Command makes someone a SYSTEM insider, although it doesn't make elective an elective-office insider.

Clark is just a comfortable strolling the corridors of power as Kerry is.

[Nicholas_J]

47. Edwards and Clark will be fighting in the South

But Kerry has massive veteran support in S.C. which has more veterans than any other state, and 17,000 are on the ground doing work for Kerry right now, with more waiting in the wings for the campaign week.

[Quixote1818]

11. Clark's Undecided #'s HIGH

Wesley Clark’s favorable is 49%, his unfavorable is 19%, and 32% are undecided.

32% Undecided on what to think about Clark. That means people are still making up thear minds about him. Tis could be interesting.

[WildForKerry]

45. Kerry is the man

n/t

[MercutioATC]

3. This is all pre-today (yesterday, actually). Let's see what tomorow brings

Just as the last ARG poll didn't include the "I Have a Scream" speech, this poll does not include the superfecta Dean scored today (town hall forum, debate, Sawyer interview, Letterman Top 10).

Let's see what happens over the next few days...


it MAY not hit until after N.H., but the Dean campaign is back on track (as if it was ever really off).

[Leilani]

7. Agreed

This whole thing is very fluid.

Kerry will be #1, & the rest is up for grabs.

[jfxgillis]

4. Well, a Clark/Kerry fight is no fight at all

And I'm not saying that to be insulting to Clark, it's just that Kerry is a pro at this biz and Clark is a rookie.

Granted, every now and then some pitching phenom comes up from the minors and blows away major league hitters, so it's not impossible that Clark would prevail, it's just not likely all things considered.

[Melodybe]

8. I'll trust a rookie any day, I am tired of polished politicians

[jfxgillis]

12. I don't mean this in right/left dem/GOP ideological way, but ....

.... a whole lot of Bush voters expressed a very similar attitude in 2000.

And I suppose there a moments in history when that attitude is not only understandble, the nation would be (or has been) well served when such sentiments triumphed.

But not NOW, 'kay? We're in a tripled up goddamned mess, on international relations, political economy and social/culture issues. We need a proven professional with no holes in their resume.

For instance, one thing we can safely say about Generals as a class is that highly-developed negotiating skills and experience at concilation is not in the job description.

[Bucky]

16. Yes, "generals as a class". But Clark isn't running as a class

Look I could say "Democratic senators as a class are all unsurprising, known entitities who've been getting punched around by Bush & Rove for three years and have virtually nothing to show for it." But what's that prove about Kerry as an individual? Nothing.

Instead, you say "Generals as a class" are lacking in "highly-developed negotiating skills and experience at concilation." The first thing this tells me is you don't know about Wes Clark's work in shaping NATO's Kosovo campaign. Any good history of the politics that led up to NATO's only war will show you that Wesley Clark demonstrated extraordinary negotiation skills in working with the heads of Europe to piece together a working coalition willing to stop Milosevic's ethnic cleansing.

Most of Europe was extremely reluctant to get involved in a war and Clark had to lobby, barter, negotiate, bluff, and wheadle on historical scales to get NATO to commit to stopping the murders in the crumbling remains of Yugoslavia. The role of SACEUR (supreme allied commander or Europe) is at least as much a diplomatic job as a military job, under Clark's tenure it was more diplomacy. He handled himself quite well (this happened in the midst of the Monica distraction, making Clark's achievement that much more impressive) and it's no exaggeration to say that most diplomats or commanders in the same position would not have been able to pull it off.

So perhaps you do feel safe in drawing conclusions about Clark based on the fact that his career path took him into the army. But you should understand that that conclusion (1) seems based entirely on a prejudice that all men in uniforms have no variation in personality or talents and (2) accounts for zero facts about Wesley Clark as a human being and a highly accomplished civil servant.

But please don't just take my word for it. Read the guy's books, watch the Republican oppo falter trying to find an exploitable flaw in the man (the usual "character" attacks, of course), and listen next time you hear Michael Moore, Madonna, Charles Rangel, Andrew Young, or the Big Dog himself talking about Clark's leadership and political skills.

[jfxgillis]

42. LAUGH. Yeah you COULD say that. And I'd agree

"Look I could say "Democratic senators as a class are all unsurprising, known entitities who've been getting punched around by Bush & Rove for three years and have virtually nothing to show for it."

Yup.

Personality traits do matter. If you have not seen a tendency in Clark to be slightly preemtory in his bearing and manner, well, you haven't been watching carefully. That bearing and manner is quite common among command-grade officers, just as an over-abundance of caution and over-willingness to compromise is typical Senatorial trait.

Now, as to your history, I'd dispute it. Most of Europe wanted something done. And although accounts vary, let's just say that the delicacy of Clark's diplomatic skills has not been universally acclaimed.

As to the charge of prejudice, I plead innocent. Certain occupations require or tend to draw out certain character traits. Howard Dean possesses some traits appropriate for an M.D. Clark possesses some traits appropriate for an Army commander. Kerry possesses traits appropriate for an elected official (I'll happily vote for any of them in November, HAPPILY). All those traits are transferable to different fields, of course, but when I turn on Larry King and SEE and HEAR Clark with my own eyes and ears snapping to with the rigid bearing of an irate commander, wtf do you expect me to do, ignore it?

It's the very fact that Clark LOOKS and ACTS "like a general" that has made him so appealing to many of his his supporters!!!

[HFishbine]

22. "We're in a tripled up goddamned mess"

And you want us to consider someone who helped make it? No thanks.

[Bucky]

34. "someone who helped make it" -- Who are you blaming for Bush's mess?

I can't tell if you're blaming Kerry or Clark for the "tripled up goddamned mess" that Bush caused. But personally I blame Bush. It's silly to blame any Democrats for failing to prevent what the president has done to the country or to vote against them because they couldn't prevent it from the position of the opposition. I really think this coming election will be easier to win if we quit eating our own.

[mikehiggins]

38. It was the professionals who got us into this mess

It may take a fresh approach to get us out.

[jfxgillis]

39. Simply put: Not True

Bush is a RANK AMATEUR and an "outsider."

His father, on the other hand WAS a "pro" and faced with roughly similar circumstances, did not make this big a mess.

[dusty64]

23. That pretty much sums

up my feelings as well. I'll end up backing whomever wins the nomination (I have no choice), but I'm rooting for the "outsiders".

[jfxgillis]

41. So we agree on the premises but disagree on the conclusion ...

... In a civil and orderly manner.

WTF has gotten into us?

[AntiCoup2K4]

9. Ah, but to use your own analogy....

Clark's not coming up from the minors. He's switching sports entirely. And even Michael Jordan couldn't pull that off :evilgrin:

[MoonRiver]

20. Since Clark is now #2, I'd say he's doing pretty good for an 'amateur'

I'll be happy if he comes in 2nd, btw. Then it's on to places where he has much better prospects. The fact is that Dean has been campaigning in NH for 2 years and he is behind Clark. The General's star is shining pretty darn bright, imo.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

29. Especially the fact this is New Hamp (East Coast). He's doing well.

n/t

[jfxgillis]

44. Number 2 ain't that hot

In a one-winner contest.

[Kahuna]

48. With three native sons in the contest, it's damned good...

It's a win.

[John_H]

31. This sounds like something a rookie may assume.

But, in these days of--and let's all admit it no matter whom we support--shrink wrapped, focused-roup-ested, and pre-packaged campaigns, largely run by professional political campaign staff, the rookie factor is negligable.

The question becomes whether or not Clark has learned--as Kerry learned over years--to stay on message.

relative neophyte Gov. Chimpy sy staying totally on message, managed to get close enough to old pro gore to steal it.

As a Clark supporter, though, I hope the Kerry campaign is as complacent as your post.

[jfxgillis]

43. Wrong.

At age 14 I canvassed for Eugene McCarthy in NH and NY on day trips and a few weekends from my folks' home in Quincy, MA in 1968.

The problem for Clark--not disagreeing with your argument completely--is that he doesn't really know what's "on" of "off" message because he's too inexperienced. That is, he'll shred the shrink-wrap bit-by-bit.

The Bush example is inappropriate since Bush indeed went "off" message and revealed himself as an unqualified amateur multiple times. The mainstream media refused to call him on it. In the Second debate, Bush LIED about the TX Patients Bill of Rights, Gore stumbled on a memory of a disaster visit. Bush did not suffer the consequences he should have.

[slinkerwink]

10. this is a pre-debate poll---I'm waiting for what

is going to happen tomorrow and the day after. The full post-debate result in the polls should be seen either Saturday or Sunday.

[Old and In the Way]

14. I'm thinking Kerry - Clark.

Kerry has the Senate connection and International Relations.
Clark has the Pentagon and the time to learn the political ropes.

It really is a "bulletproof" team, if you know what I mean.

I can see a lot of serious reform of our government with these 2 guys in charge.

If things should turn poll-wise, I'd be happy to reverse them.

[GalleryGod]

15. KERRY/BOB GRAHAM Kicks ass,too!

But Kerry-Clark is a Rove nightmare!

GG

[isbister]

17. KERRY/BOB GRAHAM

I'd love to see Cheney and Graham sit down and have a few debates. It wouldn't be a lovefest like 2000.

[dusty64]

24. I REALLY like

Graham and was hoping he could have stuck it out longer ( even though he is MUCH more moderate than I), however wouldn't his age be an obstacle to the VP slot.

[NNN0LHI]

19. When I think of that ticket I envision 16 years of peace and prosperity nt

[jenk]

18. Edwards starting to climb!

:)

[JNelson6563]

21. I'd give it a day or two

before declaring victory. Methinks the Dr. will do better than is hoped, er I mean expected. ;-)

Julie

[Jerseycoa]

25. Except for Kerry, we're all on hold, looks like

I think Dean probably stabilized yesterday, but it will take until the next poll to know. Clark will probably hold and Edwards is moving up. It's all good for Kerry. But for everybody else, it's three fish in a small bowl.

[Bucky]

36. I agree. Coz it's a tracking poll it may drop another couple points. But--

I think he's lost all the support he's gonna lose from the Iowa upset. If he can do more stuff like Letterman, he should be able to stop the slide. I just don't think that's going to be enough. He's got to reseize initiative.

[HFishbine]

26. The secret graph they don't want you to see yet

[Jerseycoa]

27. What's that? nt

[Maddy McCall]

28. A photoshopped graph

[HFishbine]

30. It is

a graph of the super secret Fishbine/American Research Group time travel poll.

[lurk_no_more]

33. And the Warlock (sp?) is winning

And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[Bucky]

35. Ha! Good one!!

Very nice graphic. Your time travelin's paying off. Now go back to 1999 and fix that damn butterfly ballot.

[WI_DEM]

32. well lets see if the debate and prime time interviews

begin a trend back to Dean. That is my hope.

[TexasSissy]

46. All Kerry had to do was not screw up (sound familiar?), and he

managed that. So he stays on top.

I think Dean did, in fact, help dig himself somewhat out of his hole, though the nos. aren't reflecting it yet.

I think Clark did an excellent job with the piss poor questions he got that solely questioned his background and Bush's background, rather than the issues. It was a wash---picking up some supporters but maybe losing a few.

Edwards hurt himself a bit with SOME, but he's just a likeable fellow, so he'll come out okay, if not a bit better.

Lieberman - oh, well. He's always just Lieberman. Consistent, but unfortunately, consistently boring and wrong.

Kucinich - he shouldn't be participating anymore. He doesn't have a chance. He's at 1% in NH and nationally and has never risen above 2%.

Sharpton - he needs to get out, also, although I'll miss his humor and sharp responses.