Several Late New Hampshire Polls

[Nicholas_J]

Kerry's lead increases, Clark in 2nd overtakes Dean in 2 polls...


Franklin Pierce College

1/20-22

Kerry 30%
Dean 16%
Clark 14%
Edwards 10%
Lieberman 5%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%
other 0%
undecided 23%

4% MoE

American Research Group Tracking

1/20-22

Kerry 31%
Clark 20%
Dean 18%
Edwards 11%
Lieberman 7%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%
others 0%
undecided 12


4% MoE

Zogby

1/20-22

Kerry 30%
Dean 22%
Clark 14%
Edwards 7%
Lieberman 6%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0.1%
undecided 17%



4% MoE


Gallup Tracking

1/19-21

Kerry 30%
Dean 25%
Clark 18%
Edwards 11%
Lieberman 8%
Kucinich 4%
Sharpton 0%
undecided 4

4% MoE

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/NHPoll.htm

[Mistress Quickly]

1. its a shame that

Kucinich is still behind Lieberman

[Loren645]

5. That's a friggen disgrace.

I hope Kucinich will have his day.

Gore Vidal says DK's the father of the future progressive movement.

[DemBones DemBones]

6. But a lot can happen between now and Tuesday.

and one of Dennis's mottoes is "Slow and Steady."


Remember Gandhi's words:

"First they ignore you.

Then they laugh at you.

Then they fight you.

Then you win.


Dennis is very much influenced by Gandhi's life work and writings.

[xultar]

7. No kidding. n/t

[WI_DEM]

2. I'll add one more

Suffolk University
Kerry 26%
Dean 19%
Clark 17%

Interviews taken Jan 21-22, but before the big debate and Dean interview.

"In calls made just on Thursday, Jan 22nd, Kerry actually led Dean by only 1%"

http://www.suffolk.edu/suprc/pres/jan23_04/update.html

[Cuban_Liberal]

3. Clark only leads in one of those four, not two.

And what's up with Zogby? His spread is MUCH larger than anyone else's.

[Nicholas_J]

13. Clark over Dean

In both Franklin Pierce and in American Research.

[blm]

4. It looks like Pierce is trying to downplay Clark now.

Clark supporters take note, Pierce is a rightwing poll.

[Justice]

9. Pierce Dean Is a Clark Supporter

I thought at Clark's event the other night at the VFW he introduced the Pierce Dean - a former navy guy?

I realize the Dean may not be able to affect the poll, but thought it was fair to mention.

[adamrsilva]

8. Not relevant anymore

with the debate last night. We'll have to to wait for the numbers of the next few days.

[terryg11]

10. Lieberman has been campaigning there how long?

Nothing personal against the guy but he's been in NH for how long and isn't even sniffing the leaders? I wonder if he stays in after next week if things continue along the current trends.

[Lady President]

11. Thanks

First, thanks for posting all the different polls in one thread. It's so much easier to compare them this way.

I'm please Kerry is leading, but these polls seem really volatile and with a lot of undecided voters. I'm not sure how reliable they are, but I can't stop looking.

[Nicholas_J]

14. The closer you get to the voting

The more reliable they become.

AS a matter of fact, back in the fall, all of the pollsters were using old contact lists, and it was taking between 30 to 40 phone calls to reach people due to disconnected phones, People who didnt know what they were talking about, people who didnt want to be polled, and so on. Now it is getting much easier to reach people and they are not using either 2000 election lists of democratic voters, or even worse, the 2001 Phone Disk to cold call people from.

Where you see consistancy in a number of polls, that s whereyou can assume some degree of accuracy. The fact that two polls have Dean ahead of Clark or Clark ahead of Dean is probably fairly indicative of the a struggle for second place right now, but it seems Clark is rising again, where he was flling for a while, but Deans general track on ost of the polls seems downward.

[HereSince1628]

12. Kerry leads near three-way tie Clark, Dean Edwards

Is my take on this once margins of error are considered.

[Nicholas_J]

15. Again (and I like Edwards a lot)

it seems that Edwards is in a three way tie only in half of the polls, but it is still possible he will have a last minute surge in the polls, it doenst seem likely from the way the polls have been running for a few days. But it will be hard going between him and Kerry in South Carolina, as Kerry has massive Veteran support in that state (it was a great help in Iowa, and S.C. has ten times as many vterans supporting Kerry, as the state has the highest percentage of veterans in the country.) Kerry has played this campaign masterfully, saving everything until the last week of the campaign, as in almost every case, the last week is the only thing that really counts, when the candidate and his entire campaign machine is on the ground.