Dean leading in SC!

[AntiCoup2K4]

December 22, 2003
Increases in Awareness and Favorability Lift Dean
Among Democrats in South Carolina


A 19 percentage-point increase in awareness and a 14 percentage-point increase in favorability over the past month have placed Howard Dean in front of what continues to be a competitive field of Democratic candidates in South Carolina according to a survey by the American Research Group. Dean leads in ballot preference with 16% and is followed by Wesley Clark at 12%, Al Sharpton at 12%, and John Edwards at 11%. Ballot preferences for the 5 other major candidates remain in single digits and a total of 29% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of registered voters in South Carolina saying they would definitely vote in the Democratic presidential preference primary. The interviews were conducted December 17 through 21, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Dean has gained 7 percentage points in the ballot preference since the November survey.

link: http://americanresearchgroup.com/sc/

[Toucano]

1. Interesting

Gore's word still means a lot.

Also of interest is who will get Sharpton's delegates? Brother Howard or the General?

[mouse7]

69. Sharpton will probaly keep delegates, grab prime time speech

I doubt the delegate count will be close enough for Sharpton to need to broker his delegates.

[yellowcanine]

2. But Dean can't win in the South

Everyone knows that, according to John Edwards. I guess he forgot to tell the voters.

[Phelan]

7. Uhhmmm...Dem voters are in the minority in the South

So for a candidate that does not have the image of being able to attract Repubs (i.e. every single repub I know think Dean is a joke) he can't win in a soutern state. You need swing voters from the moderate right to win a southern state. i.e. Clintonian campaigning.

[HFishbine]

18. I can't speak for the south in total

But dem voters are not in the minority in NC or FL.

[mouse7]

71. Military voters might put Dem over top in NC

The Military voters might be the ones who put a Dem over the top nationwide, too.

Read the interviews of the soldiers in Iraq. They ARE PISSED!

[Scott Lee]

36. So shall we just give up in the South?

that's the spirit!

[Phelan]

44. I would never say that

But selling Dean in the south is going to be a Herculean task during the general election.

[TexasSissy]

74. Oh, a SOUTHERN democrat can win the south.

If he's not too liberal. If the lead is a yankee, then a southern running mate would help (which is what Dean is looking for and may have found in Graham). Whether it would help enough remains to be seen.

It helped JFK, but JFK won the election by one of the smallest margins in history, and his papa and the mob paid for some of those votes, according to documentaries I've seen. Also, one of JFK's main platforms was the civil rights issue, which was a huge help, not to be underestimated.

[KaraokeKarlton]

49. That's not true

I have talked to a lot of Republicans who are voting for Dean over Bush should Dean be the nominee. On top of that, in Vermont Dean always got 20% of the Republican vote. Some years he got close to half Republican votes (over 40%).

There are only two types of Republicans who think Dean is "a joke". Those are the conservatives who will NEVER vote for a Democrat even if their life depended on it and Republicans that might vote for a Democrat but haven't actually heard Dean speak. Every Republican that I've talked to about Dean who have actually heard him likes him. Republicans don't typically pay a lot of attention to the nomination process for the Democratic party. So all they really know is what they hear or read in the media. The media has implied that Dean is super liberal when he isn't (and it's easy to see he isn't when you hear him talk).

If Dean is the nominee, Republicans will start paying closer attention and the focus will be in comparing Bush with Dean. When people see the difference and hear what Dean has to say, the only ones who won't support him will be the far right and certain factions of the very far left. Dean will slaughter Bush in the general election. I have no doubts about that at all.

[Jacobin]

66. Rong

Louisiana has two dem senators and a dem governor and a dem lt governor.

Your statement is a bit over the top and not useful for planning a win in 2004.

[TexasSissy]

9. True. Dean can't win the south. He might be able to

pull off a couple of isolated states by a slim margin, which remains to be seen. But it's unlikely that the south as a group will vote for him.

If Dean wins the nomination, you'll see in the 2004 election that the south will overwhelmingly vote for non-Dean (Bush).

[dsc]

13. winning isolated states

that sounds familiar. Clinton won four, count them four, states each time. The first time he won Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Lousiana. The second time he won Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, and Lousiana.

[Phelan]

45. Clinton is from Arkansas

No Democrat not from the south has pulled southern states since JFK

[JVS]

47. Hubert H Humphery took Texas in 1968

Dukakis got West Virginia in 1988

[TexasSissy]

73. Texas is not THE south. It's southwest (cowboy movies).

Texas in the GE will vote Bush in. Bush was, after all, gov here. Even though Texans eat red beans & rice in certain parts of the country, it's more of a western/southwestern state, and not one of THE southern states.

[mouse7]

70. Dems want Georgia and Florida

The GOP can keep Alabama and Mississippi. Really.

[dsc]

3. great news

actually a five way tie but great news.

[CMT]

4. This is the best Dean has done in SC yet

Still close, leading by 4-points. I guess we can't write Dean off in some of these southern state primaries.

Also, of the 29% undecided in SC, 23% have favorable opinion of Dean, 20% favorable for Clark, 13% favorable of Edwards and 11% favorable of Sharpton.

[HFishbine]

55. Actually

A poll out last week has Dean at 21%, one point ahead of Clark.

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[shivaji]

5. Dean will energize blacks in the south better than Clark

...correction...MUCH BETTER than Clark can, IMHO.

As a minority myself, I can vouch for appeal Dr. Dean projects amongst my friends and relatives.

[JVS]

6. If Dean wins SC will that kill Clark's campaign?

[HFishbine]

10. Not necessarily

If Dean has anything less wins in IA and NH, then a SC win is not a clincher. Clark will be severely damaged though if he doesn't pick up a win in at least two of the other states that have their primaries on the same day as SC:

Arizona Presidential Preference Election
Delaware Democratic Presidential Primary
Missouri Presidential Primary
New Mexico Democratic Caucuses
North Dakota Democratic Caucuses
North Dakota Republican Caucuses
Oklahoma Presidential Primary

Clark currently has a huge lead over Dean in OK (34 vs. 21), but that's the only Feb 3rd state I'm aware of in which he has a lead. If Dean clinches IA, NH, NM, and SC and all Clark has is OK, then it's probably over for Clark.

[JVS]

11. Go Dean!

[AntiCoup2K4]

8. Not surprised Dean is leading, but I would have thought Edwards.........

...would do better in SC , since he's almost the hometown candidate (in the same sense that Gephardt was expected to do well in Iowa)

[cprise]

12. SC today, TX tomorrow!

.

[TexasSissy]

14. The leader is "undecided" at a whopping 29%.

The SC race could go any number of ways. Interesting. It seems the voters have not only yet to speak, they have yet to decide.

It's way too premature to name a winner.

If Edwards can't even win his home state, he should drop out. He made a good try, but he is doing dismally in all the polls. Same for Braun and Kucinich. I like them all, but if they are truly concerned for the country, those that don't have a chance need to drop out.

[helleborient]

15. "Hometown" candidates...

There is a lot that is made of Iowa being a neighboring state of Gephardts...and South Carolina being a neighboring state of Edwards.

What I don't hear much about is...Illinois is a neighboring state of Gephardt's as well where Dean has racked up endorsments from Paul Simon, Jesse Jackson, Jr., Pat Quinn...and now looks like Jan Schakowsky and Luis Gutierrez are on the way. 0 similar endorsements for Gephardt in Illinois.

Also, Georgia and Virginia are neighboring states for Edwards where the story is similar to Illinois...huge endorsements racked up across the state in both Georgia and Virginia.

Neither Gephardt nor Edwards seem to be doing much in their "backyard"...not as bad as Kerry in his, but nothing to cheer about either.

In Dean's "backyard" he is almost 30 points ahead.

[SadEagle]

17. Well, Sen. Edwards...

... was born in South Carolina. That's probably worth a bit more than being from a neighboring state, in terms of sympathy from people, no?

[helleborient]

20. Then Edwards' performance looks even worse in SC... (n/t)

[kerry-is-my-prez]

72. Dem. Illinois is pretty much all Chicago. Daley could be a big factor

Trippi used to be a Daleyite - so that could maybe help him - if he's still in good with Daley. The workers will be all set up to work for whichever candidate is "annointed."

[AP]

16. The ARG polls for SC have always been out of stop with all other SC polls

because they presume a much lower black turnout than the rest. They weight Black turnout at less than 40%, when it will probably be over 50%.

This wouldn't be a big deal if black voters were evenly divided among all the candidates, but they aren't.

[HFishbine]

21. Another recent SC poll also has Dean in the lead

Although by only one point. I think the best that can be devined from these polls at this point is a debunking of the myth that Dean has no appeal in the south and a recognition that SC is still a horse race.

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[helleborient]

19. Neither every state poll lately shows Clark going downhill...

Just like this one showing Clark going from 15-12 while Dean goes from 9 to 16.

I wonder if Clark supporters can find us a poll taken in the past week that shows Clark on the upswing...

Looks like Clark is learning campaigning from the Kerry camp.

[BootinUp]

22. NH

Clark at 13% in NH is a definite rise. I don't have the link handy, but I think it was Dean at 41, Kerry at 17, Clark 13, then a big drop to 4th place.

There is no question that Gore gave Dean a bounce in the Nationals and some state polls. But there is plenty of time yet and Clark is still very competitive. There is plenty of good news for Clark.

[helleborient]

27. Actual references say this is wrong about NH - Clark going downhill

American Research Group...

Clark 11 on Dec. 3, 8 on Dec. 17

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

[BootinUp]

38. Here's a thread and the more recent poll I mentioned

This is also the poll that shows Dean doing worse against Bush than the other top candidates.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=14846

[helleborient]

42. No "over-time" comparison...so no indication Clark is going up...

Do you have this poll taken earlier in the month?

Or in October or November?

[jonnyblitz]

25. that actually surprises me. I thought he would be the frontrunner,

for various reasons,after he announced. what happened? I am serious.

[Upfront]

29. Possible Answer

I thought the same as you, except I thought Clark had a chanch to be the front runner. Not a done deal. No flame intended here, but could it be that Clark is now perceived as the Clinton, DLC, candidate? It is very true that there is a battle for the direction and control of the Democratic party. I have no idea if Clark, in fact, is the candidate of the DLC wing. I do like the way he has bashed B### lately. He has, for the most part, taken the high road as far as not knocking other candidates, and that is good. Of course, Dean is my choice, but Clark is my 2nd choice. Just my 2 cents.

[helleborient]

31. Clark needs $50-70 donors and workers...the campaign finance

Disclosure shows the overwhelming number of his donors are big donors, not the small donors Dean attracts...the people who actually sit down and write letters and carpool to work in New Hampshire and Iowa.

It's this grassroots commitment we need in 2004, and Clark doesn't show as strong ability there as Dean.

[SahaleArm]

48. A few weeks of free positive media like Dean has gotten for a few months

That and he's got 35% of his donors at $200 or less, not including the last 3 months of donors. For Clark $250 is a better number since that's the target for matching funds in a public-financed campaign.

[helleborient]

53. Why don't his poll numbers go up? He's slipped 12 to 7 nationally

Dean is the ONLY candidate who has shown serious traction in the polls since October.

The latest national poll just released shows Clark going from 12 down to 7 nationally.

[SahaleArm]

56. So in one poll he's 7 and in another he's 15? Go figure...

The Harris poll is already out of date.

Newsweek Poll taken from Dec 18-19:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Dean 26% (24%)
Clark 15% (12%)

Harris Poll taken from Dec 10-16: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031222/nym123_1.html

Dean - 21% (11%)
Clark - 7% (12%)

[helleborient]

57. Both show no traction for Clark since October...

In the Newsweek, Clark has gone from 12 to 15 since October

In the Harris poll, Clark has gone from 12 to 7 in the last few weeks.

Looks like problems for Wesley Clark's campaign...spinning wheels.

[SahaleArm]

61. Newsweek did prior poll on 12/11 and in November

Looks like he's holding steady within MOE, but not nearly the national traction of Dean. Of course this is politics and things change rapidly:) Harris does their poll every 2 months...

[BootinUp]

58. How about we continue discussion on this thread

I posted some more info over here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=17792&mesg_id=17977&page=

[hippercritical]

23. Clark's Foreign Policy

General Clark must not rest on his laurels if he wishes to win the Democratic nomination. He must be bold and take on new global issues to demonstrate that he has a foreign policy vision.

Please read this post:

http://hippercritical.typepad.com/hipp/2003/12/zimbabwe.html

It may also help to knock Bush off his moral high horse.

[dave29]

26. except that Dean has already done that

and that is why he is rising in the polls.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

24. Who would've thought?

I know it's early, and lots of undeicideds, but Dean is doing a lot of things right. You can't always tell if you read DU, but the work of the people on the ground is paying off. More upcoming endorsements will keep this momentum going, no doubt.

[helleborient]

28. Yep, we keep workin' and it keeps paying off (n/t)

[DancingBear]

30. Yep

All the way to winning 10 states in November.

But the primary's the thing - right??

[helleborient]

32. Zero proof Clark can win more states than Dean...

Show it to us...it's just vapor hopefulness from Clark Supporters.

A candidate who is trending down like Kerry did earlier has no indication they can make a strong turnaround to do well in November.

Democrats seem to be having second thoughts about Clark...why would Republicans even have first thoughts if he can't get Democrats behind him?

[DancingBear]

34. Here's a clue

The primary has NOTHING to do with the GE. Please understand this. Gore "won" every southern primary, and zero southern states. Dean, if not stopped, will do exactly the same. Please do some research on the viability of Northern candidates vis a vis southern states, and stop living in The World According To Dean.

If they have Political Studies classes at you local college, take some. Can't hurt. We grow tired of having to explain real life politics to Dean supporters, since when he gets clobbered in November we won't have the chance, as they all will have mysteriously dissappeared....

[helleborient]

35. I would place bets I know more about the history of politics than you...

So get off your high horse and realize you're making ridiculous assumptions.

Again, you have zero proof Clark would do better than Dean in the South. I'm still waiting for that...instead of insults from you.

[goobergunch]

39. IMHO, we don't need the South to win

Gore-FL+OH+WV+AZ+NV+NH=304 EV

[helleborient]

40. Yep, it seems to me, Dean potentially puts entire country in play...

Clark hopes to possibly put the South in play, but has no organization yet in the rest of the country.

[SayitAintSo]

54. Dean didn't even open an office here in SC...

He wrote SC off early on - He's only been here a handful of times. SC folk - especially the Dems here know that and don't appreciate it.

[helleborient]

59. Since the office opened...Dean has taken off...

And now leads according to the last two polls.

Who are the Democrats giving him the lead?

[LuminousX]

43. Uh, with my PoliSci degree, I assure you

the primary system may not be perfect, but it is better than selecting a candidate based upon polls.

It seems a lot of Clark supporters wish to have the nominee selected by looking at a few polls to see who does better in a match up against Bush. That would be folly, for sure.

You say the primaries have nothing to do with the General Election. I strongly disagree and history disagrees with you as well. Primaries are about exciting the base, the pavement stompers and letter writers. Of course Gore won all the Southern primary states, he had no real competition. He still won the popular vote. At the end of the day, until the system is changed, this is the way we select the nominee. If you want to change the process, I encourage you to lobby the DNC and stop asking people to vote for a candidate based on polls that are trying to estimate what is going to happen nearly 10 months in the future. A lot can and will change in 10 months.

[SayitAintSo]

52. I'm from SC ... I agree .... Dean's not leading ... I don't care @ polls

There is NO way Dean will be a front runner here in SC. He's strong but not leading. Sharpton has a better chance. With Clyburn coming out for Gep and Edwards having the home boy status, Kerry's courting of the military vote ... and Sharpton is still strong here ... hell it's a crap shoot from what I can see. Clark is the best bet for carrying SC in the general .... no doubt - he had a great showing here Sunday and he's still here today with Young and Rangel.

[helleborient]

60. And the reason why you have status polls don't?

Can we quote the "no way Dean will be a frontrunner" and bring it back in February?

Most Kerry supporters said he would be leading by December.

Many many DU supporters said Dean was peaking too early in September.

Any wishful thinking going on here?

[CTLawGuy]

62. thats because by southern tuesday, Bradley had dropped out..

NEXT!

[dave29]

33. Dean is already working in 50 states

while Clark ignores Iowa. You are right the primary isn't the only thing - which is why it's fantastic that Dean has people already working across the coutnry to ensure his victory.

And by the way, you give George W. Bush WAY too much credit.

[goobergunch]

37. Incidentally, Iowa is a general election swing-state

Gore won it by only .32% in 2004. Dean's early visibility in Iowa may help in in the general election there.

[HFishbine]

41. If financial support is any indication

Dean's support is geographically broader than any of the other dems.

http://www.fundrace.org/moneymap.php

[helleborient]

46. That is such a COOL map!!

Thanks!

[SahaleArm]

50. That map shows fundraising through Sept-30th, 2003.

The next quarter fundraising totals and distribution will be quite telling in who has support and who doesn't.

[helleborient]

51. Yes, it will...

I'm very eager to see it!

[Jacobin]

67. Wow. Thanks for the link. Cool map

[dajabr]

63. Go Dean! (nt)

[beyurslf]

64. Only Sharpton and Dean have continued their upward trend in that poll

[dajabr]

65. I wonder why?

Good news, though!

[mouse7]

68. Sharpton defeats Lieberman and Kerry combined

Braun beats Kerry, too.

Is the group of Kerry supporters here at DU Kerry's entire support base now. It seems to be the "sample" of views we've been seeing at DU are quite statistically skewed.