NEW NH ARG 1/23: Kerry +3 Dean -3 Clark -1 Edwards +2

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3-Day Results  	16-18  	17-19  	18-20  	19-21  	20-22  	21-23
Clark 	        20% 	19% 	18% 	19% 	20% 	19%
Dean 	        28% 	28% 	26% 	22% 	18% 	15%
Edwards 	8% 	8% 	9% 	9% 	11% 	13%
Kerry 	        19% 	20% 	24% 	27% 	31% 	34%
Kucinich 	1% 	2% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1%
Lieberman 	6% 	7% 	7% 	7% 	7% 	6%
Sharpton 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Other 	        0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Undecided 	15% 	13% 	13% 	14% 	12% 	12%
	  					
Sample size 	617 	617 	718 	811 	806 	712
	  					
Democrats 	432 	436 	511 	573 	558 	484
Undeclared 	185 	181 	207 	238 	248 	228
Undeclared (%) 	30% 	29% 	29% 	29% 	31% 	32%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points


Today's tracking gives some hints about debate performance on
Thursday and the impact of Howard Dean's Primetime interview.
The trends suggest that (1) Howard Dean's slide in ballot
preference has stopped (Dean's 3-day favorable has increased
to 35% from 31% and his unfavorable has decreased to 37% from
42%), (2) Wesley Clark has dropped to his lowest single-day
ballot preference since January 4, and (3) John Kerry and John
Edwards continue to gain support (Kerry began his upward trend
on January 15). As Kerry's lead continues to grow, Clark,
Dean, and Edwards are battling for second place, but remain 20
percentage points behind Kerry. Ballot preference for Joe
Lieberman remains in the single digits. 

As of the tracking ending January 23, Clark's strong support
is 63% of his ballot preference, Dean's strong support is 47%
of his ballot preference, Edward's strong support is 77% of
his ballot preference, and Kerry's strong support is 74% of
his ballot preference. As a result, a total of 29 percentage
points overall could switch before Tuesday, not including the
12% undecided.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[LiberalBushFan]

1. I hope ARG is the accurate one

as supposed to others I've been seeing. Otherwise it's lookin bad for Clark.

[overground1]

15. "Wesley Clark has dropped to his lowest single-day ballot preference"

It will take a few days for the old numbers to drop off to start really showing how wounded Clark is now.

[boxster]

2. Wow, Edwards is within striking distance of 2nd, and 3rd is very likely.

Dean could end up as low as 4th.

I hope that Clark's trend reverses!

[mlawson]

4. He and Kerry are consistently climbing.

Actually, Edwards needs only a second place in NH, or even a close 3rd. It isn't his primary to win, anyhow, and anything higher than 4th is gravy. His states are yet to come.

[DjTj]

5. Go Johnny Go!

...he's coming up fast on the outside...

[Feanorcurufinwe]

9. Edwards and Dean are statistically tied, within MOE

[AP]

11. Edward's strong support is 77% of his ballot preference -- highest!

Clearly, the more peole who know about Edwards, the better he does.

[DJcairo]

3. I was about to post but u beat me - check out how low Dean's strong is

[DJcairo]

6. I can't help but think that if Kerry wins by 20 points...

This thing might be over. Remember, Feb. 3 is alittle over a week away. There isn't much time for Edwards-Clark-Dean to do much post-NH. The last two dems to win back to back in Iowa and NH was Carter and Gore.

[mlawson]

10. It would be over for one of them, but not the others....

Each have different situations, post-NH.

[jmaier]

7. Not so good

for my man Wes. I think his one day result for 1/23 must have been around 15% which means that he is likely to decline tomorrow also unless he gets at least a 21% on the 1/24 numbers.

It's odd that Edwards and Kerry who are getting the new bounce are also showing high in strong support. It's like these late deciders don't want to have to make up their minds again!

[AP]

13. That's exactly how it was in 2000. I think voters no longer have strong

party identification, and, in fact, pride themselves on their independence.

I'd guess that translates to lots of people who'd say "I haven't made my mind up" as a show of independence, when, in fact, they're strongly leaning. They'll play like that up to the last minute, but I bet they break for the favorites, just like the rest of the voters.

[DaisyUCSB]

8. could/would Dean keep going after a 4th place finish?

anybody?

[AP]

14. I say no because, if he's behind, he's going to have to spend ALL his...

...money. I don't think he'd do well on Feb 3 anywhere if he doesn't finish in 1st or close 2nd in NH. He'll have strong motivation to spend hard to win. He'll be out of cash after NH, and without a win, he'll have no prospects of raising enough to win anywhere (if he couldn't win with 40 mil in NH or IA).

(It may be the case, however, that he's resolved to be some kind of power-broker doling out ducats to other campaigns -- maybe he won't spend money in NH, but he won't run hard anywhere -- he'll just keep his millions, and keep trying to raise money while he puts enough of a facade of running so that he can raise more cash -- which is how he lives, right? He's a frugal hoarder? Maybe that was his plan all along.)

[Zech Marquis]

12. Edwards is doing better than I expected in NH

that's a very nice surprise. I won't be shocked again to see him pass Dean by--BTw Dean may be able to hold off Clark, but overallhe's been unable to make up any lost ground at all.

Meanwhile, Kerry is really on a roll!

[AP]

16. Dont' underestimate John Edwards.

[Skwmom]

17. He's being cheered on by the corporate media

Edwards and Clark while Clark is being continuously smeared so why should these results be any surprise.

[AP]

19. Riiiiggghhhhhtttt. They're looking at him, and they're trying to find bad

things to say. It isn't easy. But they're trying.

Perhaps you aren't familiar with the MEMO. My local news, nowhere near NH spent some time on that one yesterday.

[Skwmom]

23. When you have Novak, Carlson and other RW

nuts cheering on your guy and praising him don't you wonder why?

[AP]

27. Ok. So what's the argument? Why do they want him to be the nominee

over the rest? Because he's a corproate whore? Nope. Because they think he can't win? OK. I'm willing to hear the argument. He's lowest in the polls now, so techncally, yes, this is they guy they should be propping up. But should he be fourth in the polls? Is he the weakest one really?

Make your argument.

I'm willing to listen.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

20. You know

I have been guilty of this myself, adding the word 'corporate' in front of the word 'media' to make it sound worse.


But the interesting thing is

"He's being cheered on by the media"

means the exact same thing as:

"He's being cheered on by the corporate media"



Just an observation.

[fujiyama]

21. Sort of like...

how I've been saying whore media...

That's like saying whore prostitute -- it's completely redundant.

[jenk]

18. go edwards!

this is what we saw in Iowa in the closing days, inching up!!!

[mohc]

22. Not just inching

This poll uses 3 day rolling averages, so for his numbers to go 9->11->13, his daily for the 23rd has to be higher than 13. He could be as high as 17 or as low as 15. Its a 3-way race for 2nd place, and Edwards has momentum on his side. But Kerry is storming away with this. Unless this poll is way off, its probably going to end with results around:

Kerry 40%
Edwards 19%
Clark 18%
Dean 14%

I just don't know if the media will view 2nd place as significant if Kerry wins by as much as it looks like he will.

[JohnLocke]

25. I hope so.

[Namvet04]

28. I never paid attention to Edwards until after Iowa - did you notice

with all the screaming about Dean's scream, some of you should listen to what Edwards said after Iowa. He could win over repubs with how good that talk was.

He is young, bright and fresh with new ideas. I am concern that being a very rich trial lawyer could hurt him.

I have him to place 3rd and hope he sinks clarke, Dk (will give him his people).

Get this to Kerry, Edwards and Dean and let them go at it. Debates will mean something.

[Namvet04]

24. My prediction for NH

Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clarke

Maybe we can get it down to the top 3 dems and have some good debates.

[Meshuga]

26. True...

The debates would be much better than with fewer candidates in my opinion too. My prediction for NH is the same.