Dean Leads in Harris poll

[Rose Siding]

Howard Dean Now Clear Democratic Leader in National Poll




ROCHESTER, N.Y., Dec. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Howard Dean has established a strong national lead over all other candidates for the Democratic candidates. While the selection of the Democratic candidate will depend on the Iowa caucuses and primary elections in New Hampshire and many other states, the former Vermont governor has pulled ahead of all other candidates among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide.
The Harris Poll® finds that Dean is now the preferred candidate of 21% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, with a strong lead over Senator Joe Lieberman (10%), who is in second place, and all the other candidates.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 993 adults, of whom 393 were Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between December 10 and 16, 2003.

In the two months since an earlier mid-October poll, Dean has increased his share of the vote from 11% to 21%, while Senator Lieberman has seen his share decline slightly from 13% to 10%.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031222/nym123_1.html

[poskonig]

1. Kerry and Edwards are below the Sharpton line

eom

[helleborient]

2. Clark has gone from 12 to 7 and Kerry from 10 to 4...

Like has been mentioned elsewhere, it seems all the poll data in December shows Clark on a serious slide, and Kerry continuing his.

[Padraig18]

3. Hmmm... I found this VERY telling:

TABLE 2
2004 Democratic Presidential Candidates - First Preferences
"And which one of these would you prefer to
be the Democratic candidate?"
(Among Democrats and Independents)

Base: Democrats and Independents

October December 10-16
All Democrats All Democrats and
& Independents Democratic-
Leaning Independents

% %
Howard Dean 11 21
Joe Lieberman 13 10
Wesley Clark 12 7
Richard Gephardt 8 7
Carol Moseley-Braun 5 6
Al Sharpton 5 6
John Kerry 10 4
John Edwards 4 3
Dennis Kucinich 3 1
Not sure 26 34

NOTE: October 2003 poll did not separate the direction the Independents'
political leanings.



Methodology

The Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United States between December 10 and 16, 2003 among a nationwide cross-section of 993 adults (ages 18+). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of +/-3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

[HFishbine]

7. Moseley Braun @ 6%

I think that's the best I've ever seen her poll nationally.

[bigtree]

4. 993 adults

queried by phone. Hard to buy into the poll voodoo. So many reasons why their result may not accurately reflect the actual will of the voters.

Types of questions, tone of the interviwer, availability of actual voters to a phone poll, cell phones, etc.

[stickdog]

17. wrong result, etc. (nt)

[SahaleArm]

18. 393 respondents n/t

[Gloria]

5. This poll is already a week old.....

things shift daily. In the last few days we've seen some focus on Dean which is not reflected in this poll. At the same time, there seems to have been a real money surge over at Clark04, much of it from small donors.

It is also not polling likley voters in the primaries exclusively. It could thus be heavily into more of name recognition than anything else at this point.

Who knows what's really going on??

[Atlant]

6. And the grapes were probably sour anyway.

> Who knows what's really going on??

Dean does.

Atlant

[HFishbine]

8. Here's a newer one. Dean at 26%

Dean: 26% (24)
Clark: 15% (12)
Lieberman: 7% (12)
Sharpton: 7% (5)
Kerry: 6% (5)
Gephardt: 5% (10) -- (what happened here?)

more: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[SahaleArm]

10. I think this reflects what pretty well

Dean is in front with Clark 2nd and the rest fighting for third. I don't buy any of the polls with Lieberman doing well. He's been lousy in every state poll that matters.

[helleborient]

11. So Clark got his 3% back that he had lost in the previous poll...

Good for Clark! The slide may be ending, will he actually be able to make some upward progress for the first time since entering the race?

[SahaleArm]

13. I do think he had a bit of a November dip but...

since December his been getting more TV/Media face time. In November the only media covering him was here on DU:)

[zulchzulu]

14. Other/None/Not Sure is 25%

Please post that if you want to pot the polls.

[Padraig18]

15. see reply #3.

:hi:

[BootinUp]

9. There is an important point to note...

if you are going to compare the newer poll and the one from October.

See this note under the results:

NOTE: October 2003 poll did not separate the direction the Independents' political leanings.


If you want to compare trends with one poll then the methodology must be the same to get any validity.

[OrAnarch]

12. questions...

Does it strike anyone that this is a strange sample for democratic contenders...that being, 39% were democrats or democratic leaning independents? Is that to assume the rest were republicans or at least neutral independents? Does this suggest Dean has a crossover appeal more than other candidates to the right?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

16. This is excellent, but....

anyone know when a new Iowa poll is coming out? That's the race to follow, would love to see it.

Love this national poll, though. :)