Zomby's Fearless NH Predictions (post yours!)

[Zomby Woof]

Kerry will win, which isn't so fearless to predict, but I think Edwards will make a STRONG showing, maybe not second, no... wait! This is supposed to be a FEARLESS prediction, so Edwards in second.

These results of the latest ZombyPoll are current as of 1/24/04:
Link - http://www.yaksgainstbush04.com/zombypoll.htm

Kerry - 33%
Edwards - 22%
Dean - 21%
Clark - 17%
Kucinich - 4% (I am not a fan of NH, it's their loss to pass up DK)
Lieberman - 3%
Sharpton - 0%

MOE: +/-1%

You read it here first! *crystal ball crashes and breaks*

[TexasPatriot]

1. i have a feeling...

Kerry - 37%
Clark - 23%
Dean - 16%
Edwards - 16%
Kucinich - 4%
Lieberman - 4%

of course, i said Dean would win Iowa with 30% so what the hell do i know.

[Zomby Woof]

2. no one can be right!

My crystal ball has been broken and duct taped back together so many times...

[Iverson]

84. All your base are belong to us.

Got that one from my kids.
;-)

[Desertrose]

86. I couldn't figure that one out...

til I read it was from your kids...then it made sense...well sorta...

LOL
Peace
DR

[TexasPatriot]

85. i'm updating mine

Kerry - 34%
Clark - 26%
Dean - 17%
Edwards - 16%
Kucinich - 4%
Lieberman - 4%

[Loren645]

3. Mine

Kerry - 30%
Clark - 24%
Dean - 18%
Edwards - 12%
Kucinich - 10%
Lieberman - 6%

May or may not add up to 100% :)

Then Clark clobbers in the South.

[Zomby Woof]

6. Edwards will do better

Clark will also go up. Dean will falter. Kerry is the wild card after NH, but will have good momentum. This could be the wildest Dem race in many many years.

None of my predictions are guaranteed, but they are fearless. :-)

Edit: these are my long range south guesses.

[Lexingtonian]

4. ah, some good fun!

Kerry - 45%
Clark - 17%
Edwards - 16%
Dean - 15%
Lieberman - 6%
Kucinich - 1%
Sharpton - 0%

[Zomby Woof]

17. good FEARLESS fun!

:D

[Maddy McCall]

5. Let's see

Kerry 31
Clark 21
Edwards 19
Dean 17
Kucinich 8
Lieberman 3
Sharpton 1

Not based solely on candidate preference.

[Zomby Woof]

7. mine isn't either

Which is why I had to make a comment after DK - I felt defensive, lol.

[LiberalBushFan]

8. i at least got the order right with Iowa, let's try again

Kerry 24%
Clark 23%
Edwards 22%
Dean 20%

[Zomby Woof]

10. looks fearless to me!

:-)

[KaraokeKarlton]

9. Kerry isn't going to win NH and Edwards won't be in the top 4

Here's how my neighboring state is going to go:

1) Dean
2) Clark
3) Kerry
4) Lieberman
5) Edwards

Clark, Kerry and Lieberman are going to be very close. Dean will take between 40 and 50% of the vote. Clark, Kerry and Lieberman will each get somewhere between 10 and 15% and Edwards will get whatever is left over.

Only people who don't understand the political makeup of NH would take the polls seriously. Democrats represent only about 26% of NH voters. Independents represent close to 40% of NH voters, and they DO vote in the Democratic Primaries in fairly high numbers. The Independents in NH always end up deciding who wins NH, and they like both Dean and Clark far, far better than the others. Dean does better with the Democrats than Clark does, and Clark has hit some speed bumps that have tripped him up. I still think he'll have enough Independent support to be competitive for second place in NH, but not first. Dean's had a great couple of days, and he's drawing huge crowds. The Iowa results are like the capture of Saddam, just a temporary case of nervous voters who are beginning to snap out of it and calm down.

NH also has a tendency to like to "undo" whatever Iowa did. Call it the competition factor. NH likes to have the final "first word" on picking the nominee and it's quite common for them to smite the Iowa results with their votes.

[Loren645]

Smite Iowa! Live free of Iowa or die NH!

Vote early and often.

[Zomby Woof]

14. well, they did pick Pat Buchanan and Paul Tsongas

I don't take polls seriously, or I wouldn't make them FEARLESS. Picking Buchanan wasn't fearless, it was just... :nuke:

Oh yeah, they picked McCain too. Great record up there in NH!

[KaraokeKarlton]

21. NH is VERY Independent

The voters aren't so difficult to figure out...IF you know what's important to them. NH is BIG on responsibility with money, balanced budgets, paying your bills, they love guns and the NRA, are sick of their special education funding quagmire and want practical health care and value a good education for their kids but don't like to pay the level of property taxes that they do to fund what Bush isn't. They like Nascar, snowmobiling, hunting and fishing and resent deeply having others tell them what to do, how to think and especially how to vote. Dean knows NH voters better than any of the other candidates because they are almost identical to Vermont voters. There are a couple of differences, but essentially, Vermonters and NH residents are more alike than they are different.

[Lexingtonian]

20. ARG polls are adjusted for that

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Sample size 617 617 718 811 806 712
Democrats 432 436 511 573 558 484
Undeclared 185 181 207 238 248 228
Undeclared (%) 30% 29% 29% 29% 31% 32%

[KaraokeKarlton]

23. no they aren't

There will most likely be MORE Independents voting in the NH primary than there will be Democrats. If the poll was 60% Independents and 40% Democrats it would be more accurate.

[Guaranteed]

26. Oh crap...so these polls we're seeing don't even include indies!!

Holy shit!! I gotta check on that.

Well, goddamn. Fuck the polls.

[Nicholas_J]

63. Wrong

The polls that have Kerry with the largest lead like WMUR/University of New Hampsire both actively poll independents.

ARG has a section of all of its polls that aske party affiliation and has a sectin for Demcrats and a sesction for "UNDECLARED" which is undeclared party affilation, and another section for undecided, which are people who have not mad up their minds:

From the latest poll:

ARG:


Clark 17%
Dean 16%
Edwards 15%
Kerry % 38%
Kucinich 1%
Lieberman 5%
Sharpton 0%
Other 0%
Undecided 8%



Democrats 432 436 511 573 558 484 415
Undeclared 185 181 207 238 248 228 205
Undeclared (%) 30% 29% 29% 29% 31% 32% 33%


The percentage of Undeclared voters was 33 percent of this poll, which is about the proportion of independent voters who are not leaning Republican, but Democrat, so this poll is highly indiciative of both Democratic and Indepenent support.

If you check the WMUR/UNH poll site, you see that all of their polls have a Demcratic/ Undeclared breakdown of their polling data.

http://www.unh.edu/ipssr/survey-center/track2004.html

[KaraokeKarlton]

78. It's still not accurate

It doesn't matter one iota whether an Independent votes for a Democrat or a Republican in a normal election. That has nothing to do with whether or not they will vote in the primary. Right leaning Independents vote in the Democratic Primary elections too. Independents aren't loyal to one party, they typically jump all over the place and mix things up. And at the end of the day...ALL NH Independents are able to vote in the Democratic primary. Only 26% of NH is registered Democratic. About 40% is registered Independent. I think Republicans can even walk in and change party affiliations to Independent for this primary too, and then change them back when they walk out. Any poll coming out of NH that polls 70% Democrats and 30% Independents is NOT accurate, period.

[KaraokeKarlton]

72. They only include a few Independents, but definitely not enough

to be anywhere near accurate since Independents are the voting majority in NH and can (and usually do) decide who wins NH elections.

[Guaranteed]

28. Alright, per your information, then, here is my prediction:

Kerry: 27%
Dean: 25%
Clark: 19%
Lieberman: 14%
Edwards: 12%
Kucinich: 3%

I think Kerry is going to have a solid, though not outrageous victory over Dean among Democrats (perhaps 5-9 points). However, Dean is going to edge out Kerry for first among Indies, who will be split between everyone but Edwards (Dean, Kerry, Clark, Lieberman, then Kucinich). Lieberman will get the almost all of the pro-war vote, both Dem and Indie, but that's all he's going to get. The rest of the Democrats, from third place down, will go to Edwards, Clark, Lieberman, and Kucinich, in that order.

[KaraokeKarlton]

73. You're forgetting something else

NH is a huge gun and NRA state. Kerry went all over the state talking up gun control. That's why he fell so far in the polls before. The only reason he's gone up is because of Iowa and the nervousness over the NON-issue speech of Dean's. Since Dean has had a very great showing in NH and is drawing crowds from 600 to over 1500 for town halls and such in SMALL towns it shows on the ground that he's moving up fast. The polls might not show that until the last minute, or maybe not at all...but it's happening. NH voters are NOTHING like Iowa voters. And they really get a charge out of having the LAST "first word" on who the nominee will be. So, it's not at all unusual for NH to undo what Iowa does.

[Lexingtonian]

31. I suppose miracles are possible

but if that happens I'd first check for Rove sending in his Republicans For Dean/Lieberman contingent. ARG didn't just grab 30% indies out of thin air to model outcomes- all they have to do is call up a thousand voters distributed representatively every now and then and see who is talking about turning out, and adjust what they do. Certainly some of the campaigns would complain about the polls being published if their own didn't show pretty much the same thing.

Btw, NH people are not quite like Vermonters. The southeast corner of NH has a lot of income tax refugee Republicans largely from various parts other parts of New England and politically passive blue collar workers squeezed out of Boston's housing market. The tax refugee sorts register Independent because they hate the Old New Hampshire Republican establishment and rarely show up for primaries, but they always show up and vote for the anti-tax Republican in the general elections. The 1st House District- the southeast of the state- is quite solidly Republican.

The 2nd House District (the west side of the Connecticut, upper Merrimack Valley, and paleocon North) is marginally Democratic- Gore won it, just barely- due to Manchester and Concord iirc and resembles Vermont rather more closely.

[KaraokeKarlton]

75. I live right along the NH/VT border and work in NH

I am in NH just about every day. I know the population quite well. And Vermonters and NH residents aren't very different at all. The only significant difference is that Vermonters don't mind paying state income tax as long as we get our money's worth. NH residents would rather let their schools fail than have a state income tax. Other than that, residents of both states are essentially the same.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

49. Hope you're right.....

n/t

[Loren645]

11. Kerry will do worse, Clark will go up. Edwards won't do that well.

Since you quibbled with my prognostications.
Which are intrepid I might add, which is better than merely fearless.
So there.

[AP]

13. Edwards will go up every day in the polls. Where that places him, I don't

know. But I bet you keeps going up, just like in Iowa.

[Zomby Woof]

15. No!

FEARLESS, as per my rules! Intrepid picks are for the day after! :D

[Kathleen04]

12. Ok, here I go..

Kerry-29%
Clark-25%
Dean-21%
Edwards-17%
Lieberman-5%
Kucinich-3%
Sharpton-0%

[Zomby Woof]

18. your new screenname

KathleenFEARLESS04! :-)

[Kathleen04]

29. lol

Fun to be fearless! ;)

[no name no slogan]

16. Mine

LaRouche - 99%
Everybody else - 1%

It's hard to keep a convicted felon down!

[Zomby Woof]

19. that isn't fearless!

That's downright hysterical! :D

[Namvet04]

22. Try this one

Kerry
Edwards
Dean
Joe L.
Clark

[RafterMan]

24. Mine

Kerry 42
Clark 24
Edwards 16
Dean 12
Lieberman 4
Kucinich 2
Sharpton 0

[isbister]

25. Since we're wild guessing here

Kerry - 48%
Clark - 15%
Dean - 15%
Edwards - 15%
Kucinich - 4%
Lieberman - 3%
Sharpton - 0%

[arcos]

27. my fearless prediction...

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Clark

[Old and In the Way]

30. My solid granite ball

Kerry - 31%
Clark - 20%
Edwards - 16%
Dean - 28%
Lieberman - 3%
Kucinich - 2%
Sharpton - 0%

[Iverson]

32. even more fearless prediction!!!

Pappoon - 22%
Kerry - 17%
Dean - 16%
Clark - 15%
Edwards - 14%
Lieberman - 13%
Kucinich - 12%
Sharpton - 11%

Not only does an unknown dark horse win, but the totals exceed 100%.
How's that for a fearless prediction!

[spooky3]

34. LOL!!

[Cuban_Liberal]

33. Mine:

Kerry 31%
Dean 24%
Edwards 17%
Clark 12%
Lieberman 8%
Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 0%

[Clark4Prez]

35. Fearless, beerless

Here you go, here is my fearless prediction:

Kerry - 28%
Clark - 24%
Dean - 21%
Edwards -18%
Lieberman - 4%
Kucinich - 1%
Sharpton - 0%

[Zomby Woof]

36. a fearless kick!

[paulk]

37. I am fearlessly predicting

Kerry - 43% The "native son" vote comes home.

Edwards - 21% He'll continue to pull votes from Dean.

Clark - 16% His inexperience on the campaign trail will hurt him.

Dean - 13% He's been dropping steadily, and the support he has is soft. Voters will conclude that he can't win and turn to Kerry or Edwards.

Lieberman - 6% Irrelevant.

Kucinich - 1% ?

[curse10]

38. Kerry will hold on

Kerry 35%
Clark 24%
Dean 18%
Edwards 17%
DK 3%
Lieberman 3%

[mohc]

39. Based on recent media coverage....

Kerry 50%
Edwards 28%
Clark 15%
Lieberman 8%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 1%
Dean -5%

[jenk]

40. mine

Kerry- 34%
Edwards- 21%
Clark- 20%
Dean- 18%
Lieberman- 5%
Kucinich- 1%
Sharpton- .01

[Zomby Woof]

41. 18%

Dean's favorite number. ;-)

[Maddy McCall]

42. Kick

:kick:

[cally]

43. Mine

Kerry 29%

Clark 21 %

Dean 20%

Edwards 19%

Lieberman 9 %

Kucinich 2 %

Sharpton 0 %

[arewethereyet]

44. Here goes: JK-34 JE-26 HD-20 WC-14 JL-5 DK-1 AS-0

you heard it here first !

[many a good man]

45. My fearful predictions

Tsongas 33
Clinton 25
Kerrey 11
Harkin 10
Brown 8

...but then again my crystal ball has been pretty slow lately.

[LBJBestEver]

46. Edwards in 2nd would turn this thing upside down

He would immediately become the frontrunner in places like SC and OK and very competitive elsewhere.

[askew]

47. This is what Miss Cleo told me:

Kerry - 27%
Dean - 25%
Clark - 17%
Lieberman - 15%
Edwards - 14%
Kucinich - 2%

[BigMcLargehuge]

48. my fearless prediction

...
Mrs. Cathcart 50%
Mrs. Resnick 50%
Mrs. Alma Wentworth 100%

How many percent have we sold?

22,000%

How many percanct can there be?

100%, you can't have more than 100% of anything...

Sorry, had to throw a "The Producers" paraphrase in here.

[Zomby Woof]

51. HAHA!!!

Mel Brooks is always welcome in my threads. :-)

[jsw_81]

50. We shouldn't attack Zogby

He's one of the most accurate pollsters out there. The fact that both Republicans (who say he's "liberal") and Democrats (who say he's "conservative") are attacking him is a sign that he's doing a good job, imo.

[Zomby Woof]

52. Who's attacking?

For over 2 years now on DU, I have used my name to parody the name of the poll, not its accuracy, intent, or whatever. I like that my name and his are one letter off.

lol, "attacking"... :eyes:

[Namvet04]

53. Can we set something up on here that keeps the final polls

for each state and see how they do. Zogby was way off on Iowa and I have seen it with him many times.

What did he call on gore/bush?

[fluffyslayer]

54. Mine...

Kerry 28%
Dean 23%
Clark 19%
Lieberman 15%
Edwards 12%
Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 1%

[Zomby Woof]

55. Welcome to DU!

:toast:

[oasis]

56. After careful consideration and calculation:

Kerry 49
Clark 18
Dean 17
Edwards 10
Lieberman 5
D.K 1

[Jack Rabbit]

57. I'll have a go at this

Kerry - 34
Dean - 28
Clark - 16
Edwards - 10
Lieberman - 8
Kucinich - 3
Sharpton - 1

[diamondsoul]

58. Fearless, right? Then this is how it

SHOULD happen-

Kucinich-34%
Kerry-26%
Clark-18%
Dean 12%
Edwards 10%

IMO. I like Edwards but I think he's too centrist, right there next to Dean.*shrug*

[Zomby Woof]

61. fearless means to me...

Being bold and daring while working within the parameters of probability, and I don't think NH voters are that enlightened. I may WISH DK would win with that margin, but I won't predict it. See my comment in defense of DK in my original post.

Edwards is centrist in many ways, but more of a Clinton Democrat than a Rockefeller Republican, which Dean is (Nicholas_J astutley noted Dean's true leanings elsewhere). Plus, wrong as Edwards was on IWR, he is at least accountable for that vote, unlike Dean, who waffled and lied all the way through. I see big differences.

[Nicholas_J]

59. Kerry by six lengths

If you check the polls that actually also poll independents in New Hampshire, like WMUR/University of New Hampshire, and ARG, Kerry lead over Dean is something like 6 - 8 times the MoE.

[Zomby Woof]

62. it could be a creaming

And the end of the road for Dean. :-)

[KaraokeKarlton]

79. Bwahahahahaha...NOT!

SOrry Nicholas, but if a poll only includes 30% Independents in a state where the voting majority is Independents it's NOT accurate. On top of that, the polls ONLY call Independents who have voted for Democratic candidates in the past. Anyone who thinks only the Independents who always vote for Democrats in general elections is going to come out to vote is deluding themselves.

[THUNDER HANDS]

60. my fear-filled predictions

Kerry - 40%
Edwards - 20%
Dean - 15%
Clark - 15%
Lieberman - 6%
Kucinich - 4%

[Padraig18]

64. Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman, Clark.

Kerry 37%
Dean 27%
Edwards 13%
Lieberman 12%
Clark 10%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%

[Mass_Liberal]

65. Hard to get more fearless than this

Dean- 104%
Kerry-102%
Meaning of Life- 42%
Clark- 101st Airbourne %
Edwards-Pi %
Lieberman- negative eleventy billion percent

[bhunt70]

68. FEARLESS!

Kerry 24%
Clark 22%
Dean 20%
Edwards 20%
Lieberman 10%
Kucinich %2
Sharpton 0%

[Desertrose]

66. DK-100%...yeah,yeah ...I know...don't say it...but

I do believe he will do way better than most think...

:hi: Zombyson

:loveya: D MOM

[CabalBuster]

67. Dean, Kerry, Clark, Edwards

Dean 29%
Kerry 25%
Clark 24"
Edwards 18%

[Kal Belgarion]

69. Fearless, eh?

Dean: 31 (The voters go back the horse they've been riding for months)
Kerry: 30 (Still a very, very strong showing)
Edwards: 19 (A virtual "win" for Edwards, getting 1/5 of the vote in the north)
Clark: 12 (Disappointing, but his real battle is in the south)
Lieberman: 5 (Not many people like Joe)
Kucinich: 3
Sharpton: .01

[wiley]

I fear you are underestimating the Republican side of Independents

Kerry 25%
Dean 24%
Clark 21%
Lieberman 16%
Edwards 14%

Just a guess,really. If the Independents stay home cause of weather, Edwards does better and almost passes Lieberman.

[progressivebydesign]

70. Kerry/Dean virtual tie.. then Edwards, Lieberman, Kucinich, Sharpton. N/T

[youngred]

71. My guess for order

Kerry
Clark
Dean
Edwards
Lieberman
Kucinich
Shaprton

[adamrsilva]

74. I FEAR NOTHING

Dean: 31%
Kerry: 30%
Clark: 17%
Edwards: 11%
Lieberman: 10%

[Zynx]

76. *Whips out his crystal ball*

Kerry- 31%
Dean- 26%
Edwards- 17%
Clark- 12%
Lieberman- 10%
Kucinich- 3%
Others- 1%

[texasmom]

77. Ok...

I was way off on Iowa, but here goes...


Kerry 26%
Clark 20%
Dean 18%
Edwards 17%
Lieberman 11%
Kucinich 8%
Sharpton 0%

[Donkeyboy75]

80. My predictions:

(With fear, based on who's going to win):

Kerry (D) 27
Dean (D) 23
Clark (D) 16
Edwards (D) 13
Lieberman (D) 11
Futang-Futang Ole Biscuit Barrel (Silly) 6
Kucinich 3
Sharpton 1

[Donkeyboy75]

81. By the way...

What do we get if we win?

[bearfartinthewoods]

82. well i made one predictiomn here the night of iowa that clark would

evaporate.

i'll add
kerry, dean, edwards, joe, clark, DK, al

[JNelson6563]

83. I predict you will be wrong on all counts

:-)

[On the Road]

87. Kerry Has Seriously Inflated Expectations

Even if he wins, it will be seen as a disappointment. No way there will be a 15-20% margin. Not in NH.

A lot of Kerry's recent support has come from voters who used to support Howard Dean but were embarrassed by the scream. The conventional wisdom has turned on that on, and there's no longer a sense of shame in supporting Dean. Dean has still gotten the most press over the last week and a lot of sympathy across the board.

My heart is hoping for a Dean surprise, but realistically I think Kerry will win by 3-5%. Given the hype, that will NOT help his campaign, especially with all the red states coming up.

We'll find out tomorrow whether the Dean comeback is for real.

[West Coast Democrat]

88. My Prediction--Most candidates will be very close

Winner 25%
Second 24%
Third 23%
Fourth 22%
Fifth 6%

or something like that

[bushwakker]

89. DK beats Lieberman

Would love to see Kucinich finish ahead of Holy Joe.