The Ads have begun in Arizona

[freetempe]

And there's been a ton of them tonight. Phoenix is getting a heavy dose of Clark and Lieberman ads, with quite a few Dean sightings as well.

I wonder why Kerry and Edwards have been non existant with the ads here. Are they not trying to win Arizona??

Polls show Clark leading here with Dean in second. A recent poll has not been done however.

Regardless of what happens in New Hampshire, Kerry is in trouble once he hits the likes of SC, AZ, MO and OK. He needs to concentrate on Super Tuesday while letting Clark, Edwards or Dean pick up some states on Feb 3.

[Loren645]

1. I don't see his blueblood yankee ivy league boner vibe resonating

South of new england.

[matte751]

2. As a guy raised in Mississippi and residing in NYC

I totally agree. Clark is the only candidate that can appeal to the South and the Northeast.

[KaraokeKarlton]

4. I lived in Mississippi for a couple of years

And I think Dean can win there. I think he can win anywhere in the south simply because he's willing to go listen to and talk to southerners instead of just ignoring them.

[matte751]

5. I don't have any bones about Dean

He's a great guy, but I've never had much confidence in his chances in the South. Among the issues that play well to voters in there, military service and actually living in the South play most strongly. Clark carries both, Edwards carries one. Kerry carries one. Dean has none.

Gore proved it was possible to "win" without winning the South, but I'd rather not take that chance again.

[newyawker99]

9. Hi matte751!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[KaraokeKarlton]

3. I get all the NH network stations and here's what's on TV here

I'm seeing one of a couple of great Dean ads at least every 30 minutes...all day and night. Lieberman has one that comes on about every 2 or 3 hours. I haven't seen a single ad from Kerry, Clark or Edwards for quite awhile now. If they do have any ads, they are rare enough so that I haven't seen any of them. Dean is definitely dominating the television ad market in NH right now, and they are really great ads that focus on all his accomplishments in Vermont while pointing out things Bush has done to hurt NH residents.

[Lexingtonian]

6. it's the money and preliminary polling

I don't know much about Edwards's campaign, but he didn't have a hugh amount of money and it's not clear that his campaign was focussed on long term concerns (like maximal delegate counts) until four days ago. But I think he has a problem in splitting the same bloc of Democrats with Clark now- imho he did so well in Iowa because he got lots of votes Clark would have taken.

What I gather about the Kerry campaign is that it's going to rely fairly heavily on local surrogates and free (that is, local TV news) coverage. The key people would be Janet Napolitano in Arizona, Bill Richardson (iirc) in New Mexico, Bob Kerrey in Missouri and Oklahoma and North Dakota, Max Cleland in South Carolina. Kerry leads in national polls now and certainly Democrats in these states are pretty aware that he won in Iowa because after much inspection Iowans decided he would be the most able to beat Bush- that's pretty invaluable as a point to make.

The Boston Globe said yesterday that Kerry's people were fishing for help of the Gephardt machine in Missouri. He got a lot of Hispanic politicians' endorsements in Arizona and New Mexico early on and is going to go to them for help (though a number of them toyed with going to Dean when it was fashionable). Max Cleland and Fritz Hollings are big helps in South Carolina. Endorsements helped most candidates not named Dean in Iowa- Christie Vilsack's for Kerry and the Des Moines Register's for Edwards apparently did.

But the truth is still that all these states represent 32 House districts total, most of the Republican. The Michigan and Washington State caucuses are on February 7 and represent 24 HDs, most of the Democratic, and Maine's caucuses on the 8th. Then there are Virginia and Tennessee (~20 HDs) on the 10th.

It's all so bunched this year, and thus requires so much money in a short period of time that all campaigns are going to have to sacrifice a couple of states- and we might see two or three of the campaigns fold as a result. Kerry is not going to be very different from the rest in leaving some states uncontested.

[Jack_Dawson]

7. Hasn't Clark been advertising in AZ all along?

[Langis]

8. Yea for at lease the last 2 months

[mikehiggins]

10. I can't figure where Joe2004 is getting his money

Anyone have any insight into that?

[KittyWampus]

11. FOX?