New Zogby Poll from Friday shows race tightening between Kerry-Dean

[slinkerwink]

link:http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=4199651

Kerry led Dean 31 percent to 22 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, but the last day of polling showed Kerry with a much smaller margin over Dean while John Edwards and Joseph Lieberman both gained ground on the leaders.

"Kerry's lead is now nine points over three days, however he led only by 26 percent-22 percent over Dean in Friday polling alone, while Edwards and Lieberman each hit 10 percent," pollster John Zogby said.

"Dean's showing on Friday may suggest that he has bottomed out and may in fact be starting to increase," Zogby said. "Another day like this and Dean may be in striking distance again."

[patricia92243]

1. Anybody and everybody that prays and that is for Gov. Dean.....

now is the time to pray like a house afire.

The pubs know he can win against Bush,so that is the reason they have gone against him so much.

[vi5]

4. How do the pubs know this? How do you know this?

Honestly, these statements thrown around that "this candidate is the one who can beat bush" are completely without merit, proof or foundation no matter which camp they come from.

[spooky3]

5. yes, I don't see anyone can know at this stage who can or can't beat Bush.

I do think it is good for us if there is a tightening of the race among the top 4 candidates. It gets more media attention and keeps the Repugs guessing.

[Raya]

35. Congratulations Dean Supports. Great Comeback in Process looks like

[cthrumatrix]

37. and 3 more days....he has plenty of time and up from here

[Guaranteed]

38. My God...he could still win this primary.

After all that's happened...losing Iowa, having the shit kicked out of him by the media....he might still win this.

[cthrumatrix]

39. it's all the undecided vote...and everyone knwos that

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

51. Thank you

It's getting interesting!

Good luck for your guy too (Kerry, right?) --- may the best man win.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

52. It will be good for whoever emerges with the nomination

The one respect in which it's a good thing that this primary season has been as tough as it's been is that whoever comes out winning the nomination will already be battle-tested and ready to stand up to Bush. That's not to say that none of these guys are ready --- it's just that when the nominee goes up against Bush he will be fucking bulletproof after the non-stop shitstorm that the candidates have ALL faced so far.

[Andromeda]

59. They just believe in their candidate...

Dean supporters are just as passionate and committed as Dean himself. There's nothing wrong with believing in your candidate.

[buckeye1]

36. Hi

i am pat robertson.you could win. i have run myself. i know what its like. for a small love offering, God will answer your prayers.

Pray with me. My daddy was so rich. he could fix everything. ahmen.

[ringmastery]

2. Abberation

Other polls done on Friday do not show this. ARG and LA Times.

[Clark4Prez]

3. Good

The best thing that can happen is that this race stays a race. It will keep the supporters energized and keep the Dems on the front page.

Congrats to the Dean supporters, looks like you won't need that tombstone so many wanted to give you on Tuesday.

[drfemoe]

6. I want him to go back to VT

I am sick and tired of the media using him to boost ratings.
And the dems using him for a backbone.
Let's get it down to three.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. He Has Value As A Pinata....

NT

[drfemoe]

10. as long as it isn't televised

nt

[BeatleBoot]

8. Proof Positive

That the "Skull & Bones" issue is working against Kerry...

(kidding, of course)

[WI_DEM]

9. the new results are up on Zogby's site now: here is link

http://www.zogby.com

Good news!! hopefully this trend will continue. But we will know on Tuesday what happens.

[bigtree]

14. In this poll chart

Gov.Dean slid from 25 points to 22 and has leveled off there. If this trend continues, he loses.

[WI_DEM]

19. read the analysis

it says that Dean was only four points off of Kerry on Friday (26-22) much better than the double digits he was donw in the previous three days. Zogby says that if Dean continues at this pace he could be challenging Kerry for first by Tuesday. All of this remains to be seen.

[bigtree]

23. +/- 4.1

[Guaranteed]

28. What matters is what happened on the last day. That's the trend.

And, look at this: “More than three-in-five (62%) of Dean’s supporters say their support is ‘very strong,” as do 60% of Kerry’s. There appears to be movement here, as there was in Iowa.”

There "appears" to be movement...and it looks like it's going in Dean's direction, now.

[Cuban_Liberal]

11. The polls are all over the place, at this point.

My 'gut feeling' is that the race is tightening up again between Se. Kerry and Dr. Dean, and that Sen. Edwards is closing the gap with Gen. Clark. There are STILL almost 40% 'undecided' in NH, and I think that may bode well for both Dr. Dean (after his 3-part Thursday 'rehab' on TV) and for Sen. Edwards, to whom many gave a second look in Iowa.

:)

[cthrumatrix]

12. agree ...it's the undecided vote ....you can't get a handle yet

[WI_DEM]

13. I believe you are correct

I think it will tighten between Kerry and Dean for first and Clark and Edwards for third. If Edwards comes in third in NH after his stunning showing in Iowa he is well-positioned for a big win in SC on Feb 3rd.

[Cuban_Liberal]

15. Very true.

I think the only consistently bad news for anyone in all the polls is for Gen. Clark, and even then 'consitent' is relative. If Sen. Edwards wins 3rd in NH, I think Gen. Clark is in trouble. His lackluster debate performance hurt him Thursday night.

[cthrumatrix]

17. between that and the Dean rebound...you have a 2 horse race in NH

and maybe the 50 states...depends on $$$$ for others

[Cuban_Liberal]

20. Unlike so many here who are ready to bury Dr. Dean, I'm not.

He has too much money, too large and well-organized a campaign and too many ferverent supporters. I think accounts of his political demise are VERY premature.

[drfemoe]

42. This fervent supporter

wants him to go home to VT. And if your guy is John Edwards, I don't know why you wouldn't want the same thing. More votes to divie up between the *inspiring* top three DLC candidates.

[Cuban_Liberal]

43. It's not about what I 'want'.

It's what I think may happen, on a realistic level. :)

[nomaco-10]

16. I just posted on another thread...

that C-Span's call in viewers have been overwhelmingly pro Dean this morning, especially the line for New Hampshire voters. I originally posted 7 out of 10 callers support Dean, now I think it's closer to 8 out of 10.
GO DEAN

[cthrumatrix]

18. the media bruising is backfiring

[nomaco-10]

21. Yep, the calls are still coming in....

one after another pro Dean! The voting public sees what's being done to Dean and they are finally getting pissed, especially New Hampshire.

[quaker bill]

22. It had to happen

The speech was no Jennifer Flowers incident. But it was blow up into one. When a candidate is relentlessly attacked for a non-substantial reason, sooner or later people see that and wonder why. This results in a rebound in interest and support.

The hysteria resulted in a ton of free media that should, by all rights, have been Kerry's. Like a traffic accident, people's eyes are drawn to it. Clinton leveraged the Flowers bit into more national name recognition and it apparently propelled his candidacy forward.

I expect that we will see the same phenomena here.

[Cuban_Liberal]

25. The American people are essentially fair.

Like you, I think people began to see that 'the scream' was being blown all out of proportion, and a 'rebound effect' has now begun. People do not like to see someone 'bullied'.

[cthrumatrix]

26. the media will slam anyone but kerry it seems...how funny

they seem to like washington insiders... holy Joe gets a pass

[Cocoa]

47. they're slamming Kerry a lot

a lot of people are saying he's getting a pass, but it's not true.

He's getting the Al Gore treatment, getting slammed for meaningless crap like how long his sentences are.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

53. I think they also react badly to over-exposure

It's ironic that the very factor that may have caused Dean's poor showing in Iowa may now be working in his favor.

The reasons are many, but I'm convinced that one of the major factors in Dean's disappointing showing in Iowa was simple over-exposure. I think his ubiquitous presence contributed to the feeling that he had already been "coronated" as the nominee and was being shoved down people's throats. People tend not to like that, at least that's my take on it.

By the same token, The Scream was simply beaten to death all week, and I think it had the opposite effect. I have seen a LOT of people here (many of whom I know would just as soon vote for Howard Dean as they would douse themselves in gasoline and light a match) expressing their dismay that this is being made into such a big deal. Whatever negative effects Dean may have engendered on Monday night seem to have become overshadowed by the ad infinitum airing of that video clip.

[WI_DEM]

27. the reaction to the concession speech was overkill

by the media at its worst.

[cthrumatrix]

30. every candidate (except bush) will be roasted by the press do you

want a candidate that can comeback or a candidate who can't? I agree in the "overkill" and we are seeign the voters comeback

[Guaranteed]

29. Hell even the SOTU only got a tiny fraction of the attention

that Dean yelling did.

[cthrumatrix]

31. he is clearly a threat to the politics of old and the agenda of fear

those that wish to avoid his track record on issues and his speaking out against the craziness in washington are making a mistake.

We need a candidate "not like bush"...somebody who has vision of "hope" and passion in his commitment that are not beholden to special interests

[slinkerwink]

40. exactly!

[Guaranteed]

24. Don't call it a comeback!

Cuz we been here for YEARS.

[Guaranteed]

32. Slinker, since you found this, do you want to do the honors and

post it in LBN? :)

[slinkerwink]

33. nahhh.....why don't you? I don't feel worthy for LBN!

;-)

[Guaranteed]

34. My pleasure! nt

[Samantha]

41. Dean is the one candidate right wing Corporatists and right-leaning Dems

do not want. As a tool of the right-wingers, the media tried to take him out in one feel swoop for this reason: Dean has been propelled into the national spotlight by a lot of little guys (and gals). He owes no one for his political success to date except them. If you think about that phrase people are fond of using, you dance with the one that brought you to the dance, you focus on the singular most important reason Corporate America on both the left and right sides want Dean eliminated. They cannot control him and he will not continue their agenda.

Dean will dance will those who brought him -- should he win the White House -- if he desires a second term. In that regard, some of the issues which have given steam to the anti-war, anti-Bush, anti-Corporate America movements will suffer irreparable harm by a President Dean who will seek to reverse or negate planks the conservatives promote against the best interests of Average American Joe.

With his inherent political abilities, he is the one Republicans don't want to face. He's a natural (like Clinton) and he can take back the White House.

[Tom Rinaldo]

48. Wrong

They don't want Clark either. But I will gladly help you make them miserable if Dean wins the nomination.

[cthrumatrix]

49. it just may come down to the vote of not wanting a "washington insider"

people don't trust them...

[Polemonium]

44. I've given up on the polls, but a kick

for what I imagine has been, a turn around in Dean's support.

[ACPS65]

45. Kerry still leads with independent voters in NH.

Not worried yet.

[drfemoe]

57. Who's polling Independents?

Kerry campaign? That wouldn't be *push polling* would it?

[DJcairo]

46. Just as it did the Friday night before Iowa, remember?

Also, I might add Zogby has by far the smallest Kerry lead. Every other poll (Gallup, Fox News, and ARG) has Kerry close to 20 points ahead. ARG shows Dean slipping into 3rd and Clark steady.

[joefree1]

50. Time to hear the DLC, media whores, and neo-cons scream

A Dean comeback would be so sweet.

[WI_DEM]

54. kick

eom.

[David Zephyr]

55. Kick!

:thumbsup:

[Anwen]

56. kick!

I hate polls... but this one made me feel all warm inside :)

[Adjoran]

58. ARG tracking through Saturday

NH Democratic Tracking
Jan 22-24 Percent

Clark 17%
Dean 16%
Edwards 15%
Kerry 38%
Kucinich 1%
Lieberman 5%
Sharpton 0%
Undecided 8%


Link: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/