No Longer Depressed About Clark's NH Prospects

[DoveTurnedHawk]

Thanks to everyone for the words of encouragement. BTW, the Suffolk poll shows Clark moving up yesterday, not down!

:bounce:

And I hear Clark had a great town meeting this morning on C-SPAN, although I haven't yet had a chance to watch it.

While I'm afraid I can't make it out to NH (I'm in CA, and have certain obligations out here that preclude such a trip), I am heading to AZ next weekend and I'm also phone banking NH voters and doing more outreach here in L.A. I'd always planned on doing that, again, I'm nowhere near giving up or despairing.

I was just a little bummed last night, is all. Now I feel better. I still think Clark will do better than expected in NH, and 2/3 is a whole different story.

Keep the faith, Clark supporters!

:yourock:

DTH

[blm]

1. I really think he'll finish 2nd.

Edwards third, Dean fourth.

[MoonRiver]

4. That's what I think too. I was starting to hope for first, but

2nd is great!

[kerry-is-my-prez]

35. I've been studying the tracking polls for the last few weeks and I think

that he will either come in 2nd or a close 3rd.

[kentuck]

2. Clark is looking for a credible finish in NH.....

He aims to win once the race moves to the states in the South and West...But it is important that he finish high enough to come out of NH with credibility.

[maxr4clark]

16. solid analysis

It is odd how a month ago, people were asking how high Clark had to finish in NH to stay in the race, and now people are disappointed he might not win outright.

To amplify your point a bit, this is Clark's first primary ever. The better he does, the more respect he will get in other states. Some people still think he is a fringe candidate, that noone will actually vote for him no matter what the polls say. Getting at least 15% will be great for him, no matter what the other candidates do. It will certainly help him here in WA, where we have a 15% threshold in our caucuses.

Beating one of the three "home team" candidates--Lieberman--will give him some credibility, too. All appearances are that Edwards will get that credibility, too, to add to the credibility he gained in IA. Clark is fortunate that SC votes at the same time as southwestern states in which he has a lot of support; an Edwards win in SC, if it happens, will be somewhat muted by Clark's expected success in other states.

We also haven't seen whether Dean will bounce back in NH, either. If Dean can't beat Kerry in NH, though, he's going to have a tough time making any headway in the South; the way the polls have gone, the only New England candidate the South seems to support at any given time is the front-runner.

[Zomby Woof]

3. NH is WAY overrated

It comes from being the first primary, and that yankee sense of self-importance (my southern bias I admit) that turns the rest of the country off.

NH has chosen these wonderful specimens as winners in the past:

Elmer Fudd, I mean Paul Tsongas (even more centrist than Clinton)
Pat Buchanan
John McCain

You get the idea.

Forget NH, DTH. Clark can easily get on track in the rest of the primaries. It's still a 3 way race between him, Kerry, and Edwards.

[kentuck]

10. Were any of those guys ahead in the polls or did they surprise with...?

their victories? There's definitely a patern in NH that the favorite does not always win....

[Cuban_Liberal]

19. I agree--- forget NH.

The political dynamic has changed, with the primaries being so front-loaded. All the pundits are just rehashing stuff that MAY have been semi-credible years ago, but in 2004, it's largely hot air. No one KNOWS how it's gonna play out this year--- they're guessing just like we are.

:)

[incapsulated]

5. Yay!

I knew you would come out of it!

:)

[Zomby Woof]

6. oops!

never mind, dupe. lol.

[funky_bug]

7. When we started out

we said we'd be happy with 3rd... then he started rising and we set our standards higher. Let's remember that we never expected him to take NH (quite frankly, we expected Dean). He just needs a strong enough showing to continue appearing viable in the states he already leads.

Don't look for him to drop out. If Kucinich and Lieberman can stick with it after IA, then Clark can stick with it after NH... no matter what. He has the money, the drive and the committment to see this through.

[Jerseycoa]

26. Actually, we started out ready for fourth

Moved to third, then second. Any of the four won't kill us given three native sons in the race. Of course, second would be sweet.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. Glad to hear your feeling better!

I am too. I got up this morning, turned on C-SPAN and low and behold!!!! There's my guy having a rally at a fire station! AHHH YES! What a way to start my day...listening to the next President of the United States! He was absolutly fantastic and had the crowd totally pumped! They LOVE him. He will do well in NH, I just know he will.

Go Wes!

[BeyondGeography]

9. It WAS a great meeting this am, DTH

Clark showed lots of fire and heart and the crowd was with him all the way. At this point, positive energy means everything. I think he hit his low point with the post-debate bash-fest, which naturally has to subside with the onset of the primary.

We need strong showings tomorrow on MTP and ABC, and in another debate tomorrow night in NH (not televised; not sure who's competing beside Wes, Lieberman and Sharpton) to get our momentum back.

As you know, a lot of people are passionate about Wes. Thanks for keeping the faith.

[polmaven]

11. The General did really, really well!

I am a Kerry supporter, but, I certainly was impressed by General Clark's performance this morning.

This should put an end, once and for all, to the questions about his Democratic credentials. When he was speaking , with such passion, about what does not constitute family values, he had me cheering in my living room. This man know more about what American families value than any Republican I have EVER heard.

Be proud of your candidate, Dove....He is well worth it. I still believe John Kerry will be the next president, but, if that is not to be, Clark, Edwards, Dean, Kucinich would be easy to vote for, and even Lieberman and Sharpton won't be the nightmare we have now!

[Jerseycoa]

13. Kind of you, polmaven

Thanks! :)

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. That's more like it!

Clark's message is getting much sharper, he is stronger on the stump. The much reported slide in NH's polling has not been dramatic at all SINCE the Iowa vote. Most of Clark's vote leakage immediately preceded that, as Kerry voters returned to their first choice after Kerry's campaign perked up and started surging PRIOR to the Iowa voting.

Clark has been relatively stable with Dean taking a much bigger hit after the media mauling of his "pep rally" concession speech. The media is jumping all over the "new" stories about Kerry and Edwards, but we have seen this all before, haven't we? They are always looking for someone OTHER than Clark to be a contender.

There were only two times they had to give Clark some respect. The first was immediately after he entered to great interest and surface acclaim. That lasted for all of 6 days, after which Clark was deemed flavor of the week, destined to be a complete non-factor in 30 days.

The second time was when Clark raised nearly 12 million dollars in the last quarter. That reluctantly led to the media spurt of speculation that Clark might be the anti-Dean, as Clark rapidly rose in NH's polls from single digits. Then they shifted their attention to Iowa, boosting Kerry and Edwards there, then blasted Dean for his "scream", and then started commenting on Clark's "slide".

Well Clark is still in solid double digits in NH, and he is challenging for second there. Clark's time in NH was put to good use. Now since Kerry is once again "local boy makes good" as opposed to "the stinker of 2003", it is safe for New Englanders to vote for Kerry again. Third place would be a solid finish for Clark in NH, and he is picking up steam in places like Oklahoma and New Mexico. Clark has money and he has a message.

Kerry keeps muddying Democratic issues, now he is putting renewed emphasis on "We were right to go after Sadamn." Clark directly exposes the failed leadership of Bush's administration and how Bush recklessly put the United States at greater risk through his War decisions. Clark comes down solidly with Dean on this one, and there is still time for that message to get out there.

The media keeps hastening to write Clark off, and he just keeps soldiering on, taking the next hill. He is our hero, because he agreed to take on this fight on our behalf when he responded to our Draft. We got Clark into this fight, we have to see him through it, regardless of any short term set backs. Clark makes radical statements and everyday Republican oriented people stand up and cheer. He is the man we need running for President. Clark is speaking out, and his message will resonate after the dust from New Hampshire settles.

[Jerseycoa]

14. Did you see him call out rich people?

It's the patriotic thing to give back your tax cuts. It's the patriotic thing to pay more taxes. Your country needs you!

Now that's the kind of thing he means by the New American Patriotism.

He can do it. Wes can do it. Nobody else.

:bounce:

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. Clark steals Republican Thunder for Democratic Lightning

Absolutely. I also heard him say something very close to if not exactly: The current Administration is the most secretive, the most closed, the most anti-democratic in recent memory. It is putting our basic Liberty at risk. Yea Wes! Patriots fight for Liberty, any good American knows that. He turns the Republican oratory directly against them, and smiles while he does it.

[BootinUp]

20. Yea that was great

I think my favorite line from this morning was the one about the middle east. President Bush said he was gonna ride herd! in that cowboy way. Well he didn't, instead he road back to the ranch!

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. Clark nearing his $2,000,000 fund raising goal

About $165,000 away with three days to go. Plus he is still getting enthusiastic crowds. This admittedly is a quote from a Clark news release, put they got the photos to prove it posted:

"On Saturday, Wes Clark's campaign had a problem most campaigns only dream of. For the third time this month in Portsmouth, supporters had to be turned away from a campaign event because the house was packed. More than 900 people showed up to hear Clark speak in Portsmouth about his plans for an even better America. About 100 people stood outside because the fire code barred more them from entering the building."

Folks, it's COLD outside in New Hampshire today. Brrrrr


Edits for stupid spelling and such

[maddezmom]

24. aprrox. 200k to go until the train is in the station! n/t

[Jerseycoa]

28. Portsmouth NH 1/24/04

[kerry-is-my-prez]

37. Nice writeup on Clark '04 - if you haven't seen it yet....

http://www.clark04.com/

Money, message and momentum. Wes Clark has all three. Online contributions are steadily growing. The campaign is on track to fully fuel its $2 million fundraising train. Clark's message of an even better America is attracting growing numbers of diverse voters - across the Granite State and beyond. And a strong showing in New Hampshire will give Clark the momentum he needs going into the February 3rd primaries.

In New Hampshire alone, Clark has eleven field offices, and more than 4,000 staffers and volunteers regularly reaching out to New Hampshire voters. Clark volunteers have sent more than 150,000 personal letters and made more than 200,000 phone calls to New Hampshire voters.

Since the beginning of the year, the campaign has hosted about 25 "Conversations with Clark" in New Hampshire. Approximately 20,000 people have come out to hear Clark's call for a higher standard of leadership.

The Clark movement is also taking hold across the country. Clark is doing well in the polls. He is in a dead heat for first in many of the early primary states. The campaign is running commercials and staffing offices in Oklahoma, New Mexico, South Carolina, Arizona, Delaware, North Dakota, Tennessee and Virginia.

In South Carolina, there are five state offices. Fifty paid staffers and more than 2,000 volunteers are working around the clock to tell the Palmetto State about Clark's plans for tax reform, educational opportunity and health care access.

In Missouri, there are more than 2,200 grassroots supporters and contributors. More than 1,300 people are registered for Meetups in 12 cities in the Show Me State. They've been holding meetings since July, long before Clark even entered the race.

In Oklahoma, more than 350 Democrats endorsed Clark this week. There are 14 paid staffers and 51 county coordinators. In Tennessee, more than 125 Democratic leaders have endorsed Clark.

Wes Clark is a leader, not a politician, and he entered the race for the White House nearly a year after most of the other contenders. Some doubted whether Wes Clark could set up a national organization. He's proven the pundits wrong. The Clark campaign is strong across the country. It's growing stronger every day.

[Loren645]

18. It's hard to pace ourselves DTH, but we must. NH is just the entry point

for Wes. The launch pad.

I wish I had Clark's discipline. Phew; this is brutal.
But we're so lucky to have a candidate of his caliber.
As Moore said, a gift.

Go Gift!

[dennis4868]

21. I am still depressed....

there are so many polls out there showing him slipping and there is a good chance he will not fiinish in the top 3....if that happends he will be written off by the so called liberal media. What also bothers me is how many in the media (Tweety) keep saying that Clark is running for president so that Clinton can run the country again...arggghhhhh!

[Tom Rinaldo]

22. I know what's good for what ails you.

Action! You know you can be calling New Hampshire voters. Information is available through Clark's web site. You can be writing letters to the editor, or writing to people living in Feb. 3rd contest states.

Personally I feel great about the flyer Clark is putting out this week. He once again is taking the high road, and voters are looking for that and not finding enough of it. By the way, what you are fearing would require Dean not slipping further and Edwards picking up more support. Second through fourth are all in play right now, so I think you are just in a down mood. For awhile there Kerry seemed out of the race which opened up the field considerably, which was exciting for Clark, but that changed and it can feel like a let down. Kerry is the home town boy, he has been Senator from MA a lot longer than Dean was Gov in VT. New Hampshire gets major media from Boston. Kerry has regained his favorite Son status, but he only has it in New Hampshire, no more New England states coming up the week after. Clark has a good running start in the Feb. 3rd States.

The situation will be fluid, because everything will keep changing as the field starts to narrow. Lieberman should be dead in the water after NH for example. With a tightly bunched group, the candidates in second through fourth place can still compete ,if they have the money and support waiting down the road.

[AP]

23. Repeat for emphasis (from other thread): Clinton skipped IA, came in 2d

in NH, and went on to win.

Clark doesn't need to win in NH to go south and roll.

[Loren645]

27. Thanks AP. :)

Southern Comfort!

[mot78]

25. Don't believe the Faux pundits

Repugs are scared of Clark, and he's going to come in second or better.

[Clark4Prez]

29. Second is better

Than anyone expected a month ago, I'll take it with a big smile.

[KittyWampus]

30. Well FINALLY!!!

:toast:

[Maddy McCall]

31. DTH, ya know I love ya, but you had me scared last night that

you were about to jump ship on me. It's no time to do that. Clark will finish second in NH, which will be phenomenal for a non-Northeasterner.

Then on to triumph in Southern states, where Edwards' history as a trial attorney will be played up by Republicans, who have successfully passed Tort Reform laws in many southern states by playing upon fears of lawsuit jackpots. Even though I know Edwards is a good man, his history as a trial lawyer will hurt him here, where folks have a heavy military tradition and respect for all things military. (Kerry has no chance in the South, where traditionalists see him as an outsider, same with Dean.)

So, I predict victories in southern states, and we already KNOW he is leading in Southwestern states like New Mexico.

This dark horse candidate will carry us to victory over Bush. Wait and see.

[Printer70]

32. Clark: Zero momentum = end of the road

Lobbying the Pentagon for military corporations never sounded promising anyway. The more people learn about Clark, the further he sinks in the polls- going down a point a day (as the consensus of polls indicates, don't care about some anomaly). Especially when there are perfectly decent progressive candidates out there. I might support Clark if he ran for Arkansas governor or congressman though- if it came down to a choice between the lesser evil. But we don't have that problem in the Presidential primary.

[davsand]

33. That might be your two cents worth.

And I suppose you have a right to give voice to that opinion. I don't share it, however. I think Clark is in it for the long haul, and I think he can win it all. He's bright and articulate and he's the "real deal."

I'll work whoever comes out of the Primary as the Dem nominee--will you say the same thing? If so, then well met! :hi:

Laura

[Tom Rinaldo]

36. Just for the Record

I never did trust people who spend the day hoping around the board leaving hit theme messages on most every thread about a given candidate. I notice you have had a couple of friends making the rounds today with you doing the exact same thing. It does make your work tougher though when long time bickering partisans of two of the candidates decide that it is time to train our fire on Republicans and those engaged in negative campaigning.

[angee_is_mad]

34. this is great news!!!

it isn't over yet Clark supporters!!!!

[SaintLouisBlues]

39. Over?

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

[k_blagburn]

38. Clark Will Come In 2nd

In NH