Kerry dropping fast in New Hampshire Zogby Poll

[Quixote1818]

"Kerry's lead is now nine points over three days, however he led only by 26 percent-22 percent over Dean in Friday polling alone, while Edwards and Lieberman each hit 10 percent," pollster John Zogby said.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

1. Uhh...Where's Clark?

Did Zogby say?

DTH

[slinkerwink]

3. I think clark is behind dean by a few points within moe

[DoveTurnedHawk]

5. Thanks! (eom)

DTH

[Ninga]

11. Dear Slinkerwink

did you create that big blue round wonderful Dean Scream graphic.

How do I get a copy to put in my car window?

Thanks!

[MODemocrat]

14. Slinkerwink - The DeanI scream graphic is adorable

Would you mind sharing it with his staunch supporters?

[Guaranteed]

21. I think she got it from someone else...was it joeybee?

He was going around pushing a website with all kinds of shirts, shorts, and other clothes (even a thong) that had the logo on it.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

55. Put your arrow over the graphic, right click on your mouse button,

then hit save as. Save as "deanscream" or whatever you want. You can do that with any graphic or photo. (Just be careful of copyright infringement....)

[Quixote1818]

4. Clark is steady at 14%

[robbedvoter]

10. Homey don't do that! Zodby don't do Clark!

It's a little impediment he's been having since September...
past statemets, poll questions:



"Clark's fizzle is the key to these numbers. Clark was hurting Dean.
Now Clark has just collapsed and the direct beneficiary is Dean," said
pollster John Zogby.

Geez, John Zogby himself said that.

.

This comes from today's NYPost:

http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/41887.htm

----------

Keep in mind the horrendous question used by Zogby:

"Should the Democratic party nominate someone who is a lifelong
Democrat, or would Democrats be wise to select someone who is a recent
convert to their way of thinking?"

See:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750

The questions are listed at the bottom.
Keep in mind: in September, Zogby did the same to Dean in the South -
started poll with a gay marriage question. We don't know who
commissioned any of these polls.
And read here for proof that this is standard procedure for Zogby:
http://www.cesame-nm.org/Standards/Zogby.pdf

[Namvet04]

15. Clark people need to get NH people out

I just listen to a report from NH about how Clark is falling fast and the report said I was at a breakfast for him this morning and yes their was a large crowd but he could find no one from NH and that is a really bad sign. Also Clark could not cook pancakes and his wife had to apologize. Things are slipping for him and my source in NH say Joe may beat him.
Kerry, dean or edwards for second and Joe or Clark for 4th is my prediction. Watch these special group of voters in NH. They do not like bringing in a lot of outside people and some day that cost dean in Iowa.

[Justice]

16. Lots of NH People Out For Clark

Thanks for your concern!

[robbedvoter]

18. No kidding! I saw the event on TV - it was crowded, NH people

who were not supporters but were curious were there as interviewed by C-Span. Joe is still working on raising that 100,000 I think. Thanks for the view from that linb though. been in new Hampshire, talked to voters, saw those Clark signs on wntire streets at times. Nice try! ;-)

[Namvet04]

28. Only reporting what the reporter saw

This hurt dean in Iowa having so many outsiders. Clark should also not cook pancakes if he does not know how. They were making fun of him and said he had to have his wife get up and help him. People do not like a pancake with a cold uncooked center.

They never learn that little things can really hurt them. If you do not know how to cook, don't act like it.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

33. People are coming from neighboring states to see Clark - this is a common

thing. He's a phenomenon. They are alos doing this to see Kerry.

[Namvet04]

35. I am only telling you what a reporter there was saying

If your for clark you should be really concerned given his huge drop in the polls recently.

I think clark can still beat Joe for 4th place but it may be a fight. Watch these NH people, they do not like the crowds being brought in from other states.

[bearfartinthewoods]

47. why should that stop him? he doesn't know how to be a dem either but

he's still trying to act like one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. Give Me A Fucking Break...

Maybe I should vote for the head chef at IHOP for president....

[Jerseycoa]

56. You've been dropping into a lot of threads, Namvet04

You look familiar. Who's your horse in this race? :)

[Field Of Dreams]

25. Clark couldn't make pancakes ...

oh no ... he's doomed ... doomed I say! :crazy:

[fujiyama]

51. Hey atleast...

He didn't fall over like Gary Bauer did while flippin those pancakes in '00..

[DoveTurnedHawk]

26. Uh, Right

Sorry, the report you claim to have seen does not pass the smell test.

Clark has done quite a few of these pancake breakfasts so far. I'm pretty sure that even if he didn't know how to flip them before (and I bet he did), he would certainly know by now. And I hear his venues are packed with NH voters.

DTH

[Namvet04]

31. The reporter was there and asking people

I am just saying to all you clark people that one report on here this week said that one of dean's problems in Iowa was all the outsiders. NH people pick up on that fast. It may be the reason he is dropping so fast in the polls. You can come back at me after NH if you want but I think from my NH sources the clark battle will be to beat Joe not Kerry. Remember Iowa!

[Cooley Hurd]

2. Ruh roh...

We're back to having a horse race...

I guess the "Scream" factor isn't much of a factor anymore.

[Ninga]

8. Pols Schmoles...................

Hang on sloopy's......................

[Dogmudgeon]

17. The "Scream" is a non-starter?

You mean people actually defied the Press?

As Dan Rather would say, "It appears that the voters have use a long lasso to burn the media's out-of-season tumbleweeds."

I think.

--bkl

[boxster]

6. Edit...

Never mind. 31-22 is the average.

[displacedtexan]

7. Please learn about tracking polls before you post

Tracking polls ask different people on different nights. When you add all of the responses up over 2 or 3 days, you get the pulse of the entire group. Citing one fraction of a group is specious.

[jpgray]

9. What he/she said. (nt)

[Guaranteed]

23. This is citing the most recent trend, from Friday...

Don't worry...in a few hours we'll start getting Saturday's numbers, too. Then we'll really see.

[sistersofmercy]

12. Perhaps you should check the ZOGBY link provided by Boxter!

[Guaranteed]

24. Look for yourself:

www.zogby.com

[sistersofmercy]

32. 1/24 Kerry with 9 point lead, am I missing something?

[Guaranteed]

36. Read the "more" part right under the graph. nt

[sistersofmercy]

45. Ok I finally saw it, thanks!

[jenk]

13. zogby is the only one polling kerry so low

[adamrsilva]

19. He has the latest poll

though.

[mohc]

29. Not really

Zogby 21-23
Kerry 31
Dean 22
Clark 14
Edwards 8

ARG 21-23
Kerry 34
Clark 19
Dean 15
Edwards 13

KRC/Boston Globe 21-23
Kerry 25
Clark 15
Dean 15
Edwards 12

There is certainly something fishy about Zogby's numbers, we'll have to wait and see what the Gallup track ends up being, but I bet they are more in line with the rest.

[MaineDem]

20. Today's Boston Globe poll has Kerry 35-15 over Dean and Clark

I don't think Kerry's sinking that fast.

[Guaranteed]

30. That was from the 22nd and 23rd

Zogby's 26-22 numbers are from last night/yesterday afternoon. They're from a small sample, but very, very recent.

[DJcairo]

43. Last I checked yesterday was the 23rd.

[Guaranteed]

49. Yes, but the day before yesterday was the 22nd.

The 22nd's numbers were lower for Dean than the 23rd's, thus, when those numbers were averaged in they brought Dean's numbers down. And, as the case may be, Kerry's numbers up.

Again, we're just going to have to wait for tonight's numbers to get a real idea of what's going on.

[Namvet04]

34. My NH source say it is clark that is sinking fastest

Just saw a reporter on tv at a clark rally and he could find no one to interview from NH. Outsiders and the reporter went on how clark had fallen so much since Dean, Edwards, Kerry and Joe came from Iowa and NH people could compare him with clark and that is why he is slipping so badly. Note how far clark has fallen in the polls in the last few weeks.

[Namvet04]

22. Zogby seems to be wrong all the time now

What did he poll for Iowa?

What I hear from NH is Kerry is holding on to his large lead, clark is dropping fast, Dean is also dropping with Edwards coming up fast and also Joe gaining on Clark.

I hope NH will help us get it down to 3 people we can elect like Edwards, Dean, and Kerry. Al and Clark have too many problems and issues from the past, dk just has not got enough people behind him and Joe is not going to go anywhere after NH.

I think it would be great to watch those 3 go head to head.

Here is something to do to open your eyes and make you think. Watch both Edwards and Deans speeches after the Iowa vote. I tell you Edwards should have got the press for how great that was and it could turn on all kinds of people. We need to tell people what we are going to do not like clark and worrying about a war 40 years ago.

[TexasPatriot]

27. for everyone reading and posting poll data

please read this 4 pager at the post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41186-2004Jan23.html

[mohc]

37. I particularly love this part....

"Zogby also adjusts his sample based on historic trends and his judgment of "what is happening on the ground" in a particular race, and it is this imposition of his own judgment that disturbs many pollsters."

In other words, he doctors his numbers.

[Namvet04]

38. I have heard a lot of people say you can't trust his polls

He is wrong all the time. What was he telling us last week with Iowa?

[mohc]

44. Zogby's last two Iowa polls

Candidate 15-17 16-18
Kerry 24 25
Dean 23 22
Edwards 18 21
Gephardt 19 18

Still had Dean over Edwards, way overestimated Gephardt, and underestimated Kerry. Yes the caucus system mitigates it somewhat, but he was definitely off.

By contrast, the Des Moines Register poll taken before either of those two polls had

Kerry 26
Edwards 23
Dean 20
Gephardt 18

While not too different from Zogby's last poll, you have to account for the movement in the last few days. Just seems Zogby was polling about 4 or 5 days behind the curve.

[displacedtexan]

54. Zogby's creds starting going downhill in 2000

My SO is a demographer (the kind with multiple advanced degrees)and was upset by the obvious mistakes/manipulations in Zogby's process leading up to the election. In fact, it looked like Zogby was working toward creating a slim enough margin for the cheating (Florida) to look plausible.

[Walt Starr]

39. OUTSTANDING NEWS!!!!

A Kerry candidacy would be ruinous for the Democratic PArty, IMO.

[Namvet04]

41. NH voters should put your 3 out of it

Looks like Joe may past Clark in NH.

[Walt Starr]

42. If I have a choice of the three corportists

Looks like I'll flip to a third party.

I cannot stomach the thought of a fake two party election when they're both corporatists.

[Namvet04]

40. Last poll by Z in Iowa that I could find, you can't trust his polls

In the latest three-day tracking poll, Kerry gained two percentage points to 24 percent, with Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt each dropping two points to 19 percent and John Edwards holding steady at 17 percent. This was the 17th.

Zogby has no clue to what is going on. He seems to be wrong all the time.

I would love to start on here list of the final polls for each state and then you could see the ones to trust.

[VirginiaIs4Lieberman]

48. Actually, Zogby is usually the best

Iowa was a caucus, not a primary. The poll numbers there do not reflect what the final caucus result would be, but individual support. Zogby has consistently been the best pollster over the years. My prediction:

Dean 30%
Kerry 26%
Lieberman 15%
Clark 15%
Edwards 12%
DK 2%
Sharpton <1%

[feckerman]

46. While we still have a few days....

Anyone who thinks this is going to be a 15 point clear victory for JK - please give me some of whatever your smoking.

[caledesi]

50. Thank you! I can finally stop crying (felt so bad about Dean) nt

[CrazyRP]

52. What about Clark?

How's he polling?