Which candidate has the most to lose in NH ?

[kentuck]

Kerry stands to lose a lot if he doesn't come in first. Dean gains if he comes in second because of the way he has been written off this past week. Clarks gains credibility if he finishes 2nd or 3rd. Edwards holds steady unless he moves up to 3rd or 2nd.

Of course, if Lieberman cannot finish at least 3rd, it is over for him. I think the same goes for Kucinich. Sharpton plans on doing well in SC with the black vote, so he may have another week to survive.

However, the race should be in better focus after the NH primary. It will separate the contenders from the pretenders. This should permit the message of the candidates to become more focused also. But the field should definitely be weeded down after NH...

[eyesroll]

1. I don't think anyone's dropping out after NH

no matter how badly they do.

Why? Short answers:
Kerry -- Iowa still fresh
Dean -- Still has $, grassroots, ego
Clark -- Hasn't lost anywhere yet and NH isn't make it or break it for him
Edwards -- Wasn't even expected to do anything here, so any finish is OK
Lieberman -- Ego. Period. (He's my wild card -- IF anyone drops out, it's him, but I don't think so.)
Sharpton & DK -- Nothing to lose. Low burn rates. Their messages still get out.

[kentuck]

2. So everybody gains and nobody loses ??

:)

[eyesroll]

11. Well, no...

Edwards and Kerry can afford to do worse than expected; Dean and Clark need to meet expectations in order to have momentum going into SC and Feb. 3. But nobody's dropping out yet.

[BootinUp]

3. Dean n/t

[spooky3]

4. I think Lieberman has the most to lose.

A commentator on NPR, sorry I don't know his name, had a point with which I agreed.

He said that Kucinich and Sharpton are staying in to make sure that their issues are heard, as long as they have enough money to stay in. They know they cannot win the nomination. However, Lieberman plans to stay in the Senate if he doesn't win the nomination, and may feel that it is humiliating or his Senate stature would be lessened, if over and over his showing is poor. So he may pull out quickly if he doesn't do well in NH.

now my opinions:

I agree Lieberman has to come in at least third and do well in at least one of the primaries on the same date as SC's. He spent a lot of time in NH, he's from New England, has name recognition, NH is a fairly conservative, non-diverse state, so if his message isn't resounding there, it probably won't anywhere. It would be nearly like Gephardt's Iowa.

I don't think Kerry will be hurt if he comes in 2nd or third, as long as he gets double digits, though he ought to do better than that in his own backyard. I can't see him finishing poorly so I don't expect he will lose anything.

If Clark finishes outside of double digits, I think it will harm him, because he has spent a lot of time here. But I don't think it will knock him out.

[HFishbine]

5. Dean

Kerry and Edwards showed well in Iowa. That will buy them a little elbow room for a lower than expected finish in NH, should such occur.

Clark, it's his first state. Unless he's way back in the pack (like behind Lieberman), he'll survive.

Kucinich and Sharpton can finish last and still meet expectations.

Dean has to make a respectable showing. If not, he'll probably continue on, but it will be hard to convince Feb. 3rd voters that he's worthy of their support if he once again finishes 3rd.

[jenk]

6. Dean led by 5 touchdowns

[On the Road]

7. Dean MUST Come in Second

or he's in real trouble. Even if Clark finishes fourth, it's still his first state. He'll do better in the South in the next round. Kerry and Edwards have had their Iowa bump and are in less need of a stron showing.

[Quixote1818]

8. If Kerry comes in 2nd he is toast

because the next round will kill him in the south and west.

[cheezus]

9. Dean

Dean - If he does as bad as in Iowa, he's going to have a hard climb back out. But if he can finish close to the top it'll put him back in the running

Kerry - So much media focus that not winning is a loss. If he's close he breaks even. If he tanks it erases the Iowa mo, and he has to head into the south

Edwards - Even a rather poor showing won't hurt much. If he can do well in NH it bodes VERY well for his campaign

Clark - Winning would be huge for him, doing very poor would keep him off tv coming into mini-tues

Kucinich - could come out the big winner. If he can do better than 5% all of a sudden he's the up and coming distant canidate. Will be able to get on tv and get his message out.

Sharpton - Nothing to lose, picking up a few % would help like for dk

Lieberman - If the results reflect the current polls he's sunk

[feckerman]

10. Dean, Clark right behind him

If Dean does poorly, it will drive him deeper into a hole. (if he does well - he'll steal the title "comeback kid" from kerry)

On the same token, this is Clark's first proving ground - if he does not stand up to expectations (at least a strong third), it will certainly hurt him.

[AP]

12. Dean and Lieberman are on the bubble. Clark will be on the bubble

if he doesn't come out of NH with a narrative arc that can lead to vicotry.He doesn't need to do really well, but he'll need a believable story explaining why he didn't in NH but can in the next round.

[WilliamPitt]

13. Don't look for Kucinich to quit anytime soon

He's running for President, but he's got other plans, as well.

[kentuck]

16. Other plans ??

Like what?? Is he staying in he House?

[JohnLocke]

14. Lieberman, then Dean, then Clark, then Kerry.

[arewethereyet]

15. Dean and Clark both need to win

Clark might scrape by with a close 2nd, Dean as well if its really close.

Kerry would appear to be a lock but you never know.

All the Edwards needs is 4th. Anything better is gravy.

Lieberman, Kucinich and Al might as well quit. All they're doing is spending other people's money. And poorly.