Kerry Leads Dean 35% To 23% In The Latest CNN Gallup New Hampshire

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Poll...


So much for the vaunted Dean surge....


John Edwards....


John Kerry.....


Wes Clark....


They are all acceptable to me.....

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. I don't know if Kerry will run away with it

But I don't think Dean is gonna cut into Kerry's support. If anything, he might cut into Clark's.

But the way things are shaping up, Dean supporters may just settle on a solid second and hope he picks up steam down south.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Just Want To Beat Bush....

and will support any Democrat who I believe has the best chance of beating *...


I will not let personal vanity get in the way of removing Simian Boy from the White House...

[Nicholas_J]

21. The south will go to Clark or Edwards

With Kerry either taking South Carolina or an extreme strong second place. Kerry has massive Veterans organization in S.C., the largest in the nation. Dean will not do well there, as the typical voter in the south stands exactly in opposition to Deans platform, as southern Democrats are fiscal progressives, and social conservatives, and that does not fit Dean at all.

[dkf]

3. Tell you this...if it goes down south gun owners are going to go for Dean

over Kerry.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Have Lived In The South Most Of My Life...

Edwards might play in the south...


Clark might play in the south....


Dean will be as popular in the south as was General Sherman...

[Guaranteed]

9. How about Kerry? nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Kerry Won't Play Very Well Either

but at least his war hero status will provide him with a modicum of innoculation...

[Guaranteed]

7. Yup...suddenly the gun issue is going to become huge.

A lot of DUers are really glossing over that fact.

[Guaranteed]

4. Do you have a link?

I'd like to know what days the samples were taken.

[newsguyatl]

5. this is a TRACKING poll

that was conducted wednesday thru friday... the zogby poll that was done EXCLUSIVELY friday (therefore it's the latest) has kerry only ahead by 4 or 5, and his lead shrinking... so the zogby poll is post-debate, post-abc int'v and post-infamous scream insanity...


stay tuned.

[Guaranteed]

8. Excellent...thank you

Exactly what I was wondering.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Five Organizations Are Polling

and you guys are hanging your hat on the Zogby poll....


Well...


I'll bet alot of people on the Titatic were hoping other ships would receive their distress signals....


See ya later Dr. Dean...

Happy trails....

[Guaranteed]

12. Do you understand what we're saying, though?

The distinction between these tracking polls and the 26-22 Friday Zogby poll?

[mohc]

14. The entire reason for these 3 day rolling averages

Pollsters started doing this to roll MoE over 3 days, thus reducing perceived error. The problem is they are polling a moving target, so they tend to lag behind actual sentiment. Basically, the daily polls have a MoE of around 10% by themselves, and average 3 together it drops to 4. Meaning Dean could be up by 6 points ot down by 14 based on a 4 point spread and a 10 MoE. Seeing as other polls are suggesting leads as large as 15-20% with a 4% MoE, my guess is the actual lead is somewhere between 10 and 15%. Do not hang your hat on a single daily, it might be the beginning of a trend, it might just be at the high end of error. If 2 days from now the tracking poll has Dean within 5%, then we will know there was significant movement, but if the other polls all stay where they are, I just do not see that happening.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Yeah...If There Are Eight Hundred Respondents To The Poll

that means Friday's sample prolly had about two hundred sixty seven respondents...

The margin of error is about + - 8% for a sample that small...


And it's contradicted by at least four other polls....


Anyway, we should be supporting the candidate who has the best chance of outing Simiam Boy from the White House...


Hell, I'd hold my nose and vote for Lieberman if I thought he could beat Simian Boy...

Out of the three electable candidates, Clark, Kerry, and Edwards they have all serious liabilities and assets....

[Nicholas_J]

22. They hang their had

on anything that gives them brief hope. I remember the same before Iowa, with Dean dropping in all the polls, Kerry and Edwards rising, that they were waiting for it all to be over and Dean wins in Iowa on Monday.

Same thing is happening now.

Most accurate view to take is to look at all of the polls and see the momentum for each candidate.

With this view it seems that Dean is either dropping or going nowhere, Kerry still rising, and suddenly a good number of the undecided going over to Edwards, a bit less to Lieberman, and a bit to Kucinich.

Zogby himself has said that all polls show are trends. And the trend in all of the N.H. polls is towards Kerry and away from Dean.

The WMUR local polls done locally, by the University of New Hampsire are most telling with Kerry at 37 percent Dean at 18 percent. Almost all of the polls have Dean at about one half of Kerry's polling percentages, and since most do, that is likely the most correct polling data.

You must remember that Zogby was rather favorable towards Dean in the fall, through December. And his polls seem most favorable towards Dean now. If that is truly the case, Dean is in serious trouble.

There is one historic fact. Though many winners of Iowa and New Hampshire do not go on to become the nominee's a cndidate who was in the lead in the fall who falls behind after the early primaries has never come back.

Kerry will likely take the early states, but a Dean revival is unlikely and if a dark horse arises to take the nomination, it is far more likely to be Edwards, Clark or Lieberman, than Dean.

He had his chance and it ended up not being as resonating as he beleived.

[ringmastery]

26. You do realize

that the friday results you dean people are crowing about was only a 200 person sample with something like a 10 point margin of error.

It means nothing until we see what happens on saturday and sunday.

[jenk]

10. Gallup says "Kerry continues to surge"

Kerry- 34 (+4)
Dean- 22 (-3)
Clark- 17 (-1)
Edwards- 12 (+1)

[Nicholas_J]

16. Yup

Dean shot himself in the foot. Even if it was not in his own nature to behave as he did in the Iowa concession speech (which if you have ever been to a Dean rally, you will know that that was standard Dean performance), the need to present such a show led something to click in many other voters, which was what kind of candidate attracts supporters who need a show like that. Dean was told in Iowa,by political journalists, just before the caucus that he needed to prevent his supporters from angering or annoying the undecided, or supporters of other candidates they were trying to talk to, and Deans own behavior, when added to the activities of his supporters, has put together a picture for many voters, that there is something not quite right about this candidate and his campaign. It is showing in the polls, and no matter how hard Dean tries to tone down his campaign, the second look crowd seem to more be waiting for a repeat of Iowa, looking for a show, than seriously looking at Dean.

Even looking at the support of war crowd show Kerry equally appeals to those who supported and did not support the war in Gallop, with a clear divide in support for Dean on this issue:

Candidate Support
Compared by Support for War in Iraq

% Who Support:
Approve of War
Disapprove of War
Strongly Disapprove of War

%
%
%

Kerry
36
37
28

Dean
13
21
32

Clark
16
22
15

Edwards
15
12
10

http://gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040123.asp

Almost twice as many pople who disapproved of Iraq support Kerry than Dean.

Almost Twice as many strategic voters (on electablity over issues) prefer Kerry.(Dean 21 % Kerry 40 %)

And issue driven voters Prefer Kerry to Dean (Dean 22 %, Kerry 27%)

Every day in every way, things look very rosy for John Kerry.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Dean Suffers From A Lack Of Authenticity...

He started out as the most secular of candidates then he said he needed to "talk about his faith" cuz southerners dig faith....


He respected the privacy of his wife and then he dragged her out to Iowa in the waning days of his campaign and dragged her on to tv to do the Diane Sawyer interview...


He was the Red Bull fueled angry candidate until he was criticized for his Ric Flair like Iowa concession speech and now he seems like he's on horse tranqualizers...

Howard Dean has no core... There's no there there...

[Namvet04]

17. Sounds close to what I am hearing from NH

Here is the final poll in Iowa I could find from Zogby and he seems to be wrong all the time.

In the latest three-day tracking poll, Kerry gained two percentage points to 24 percent, with Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt each dropping two points to 19 percent and John Edwards holding steady at 17 percent.

I think it will be Kerry, Dean and Edwards fighting for 2nd and Joe and Clark fighting for 4th.

I hope NH gets it down to Kerry Dean and Edwards.

[Nicholas_J]

20. Thats funny

Last Zogby before Iowa predicted exactly what happened in Iowa.

Dean's own tracking polls had him ready to leave Iowa before the caucus was over.

And he has already made statements indicating that he may not win New Hampshire (that he doesnt need to win it to remain viable, or that he haws a new 50 state strategy)

Dean is in the position of Bill Bradley in 2000, way ahead before the elections, he finally fell in the early caucuses and primaries, and was not able to recover, as it was his platform that was flawed, and a change in platform mid stream is viewed as politicking rather than substantive change.



His polling seems to be on the money, but his own personal predictions seem to lack substance. A month ago he stated he could see no possible Kerry revival.

Yesterday, he predicted Dean to start moving up today.

[mandyky]

19. I haven't trusted the CNN Gallup polls since the

drumbeat to the war polls. The only person their polls prop up are shrub and his stoooooooooooooopid policies and wars.

[gauguin57]

23. deleted

[mitchum]

24. Good news is always welcome

[artr2]

25. Do you think that the 100K that CNN's parent company GAVE

to Kerry might have any effect in this "poll" ??