Dean is On the Way Up - New MSNBC/Zogby Poll

[NewHampster]

sorry ;) Kerry supporters but it's true

Kerry’s lead is now nine points over three days, however he led only by 26 percent-22 percent over Dean in Friday polling alone, while Edwards and Lieberman each hit 10 percent,” pollster John Zogby said.

“Dean’s showing on Friday may suggest that he has bottomed out and may in fact be starting to increase,” Zogby said. “Another day like this and Dean may be in striking distance again.”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4048614/

[cjbuchanan]

1. just wondering

what does this have to do with CNN? Your link is to MSNBC.

Please explain.

[MaineDem]

15. Exactly...it's the Zogby numbers again

Not CNN at all

[Jack_Dawson]

2. Clark happy with 3rd or higher

Not bad for a visiting team and rookie never having run for elective office. Next stop: Clark's home turf.

[xultar]

6. Bingo, But do you think he could go on with a 4th? n/t

[Jack_Dawson]

27. Yup

He's got mad bank, and huge southern appeal. He could do it.

[Nicholas_J]

34. Each loss

Will put a drag on Dean that will require him to eat up more and more of the money he has, and it will require that he spend far more to try to compensate for his fall in polls than candidates who are ahead of him. That is assumming that the other candidates wil sit and rest on their laurels of winning. It seems that Deans money will not be enough to compensate for a failing campaign. Even a win in New Hampshire which remains a small possibility is not as strong as and endorsement for Dean or Kerry as it would be for an outsider such as Clark. All it proves is that his message resonates locally. The win in Iowa for Kerry proves a message that resonates nationally, and so was the far more decisiive win. Dean will only remain viable if his campaign can deliver a crushing defeeat of the other candidates and even if Dean took every independent vote not comitted to REpublicans. it would not be enough to deliver a crushing blow to other DEms, but a weak first place.

Given that Kerry was just given the Leagues of Conservative Voters Nod, this is a strong indication of which way Independent voters vote is going to go. Why the hell they would endorse the most liberal member of congress other than Ted Kennedy is beyond me, other than electability which tends to be an issue among the people who join groups likev the league of Conservative Voters, who tend to be eithe middle aged or retired, adn who tend to vote more strategically than on issues.

[Ripley]

3. Isn't it ridiculous how the media and some DUers say Dean lost.

When he has been in second place in NH in every poll? How does one lose by coming in second in only the first of many primaries? Oh yeah, the media should decide, not the voters.

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. I hate to interject logic here, but

Wasn't Dean like only 3 or 4 points behind Kerry in Iowa before the caucuses?

And he got beat by like 20 points.

Now he's 9 points behind him.

And Kerry people are supposed to be worried?

[xultar]

7. Where ya been MR? I've been lookin 4 ya! n/t

[THUNDER HANDS]

12. I broke my leg jumping off the Dean bandwagon

:D

[Guaranteed]

8. It's about momentum...

You know Dean was still ahead of Kerry until only a few days before the caucus, but ended up losing by 20.

[KaraokeKarlton]

14. NH is not Iowa

And NH tends to like to undo what Iowa does in the name of the competition for being "more important" than Iowa. It's quite typical for NH to turn on whoever Iowa props up.

[Nicholas_J]

28. Not so

Im most election New Hampsire seems to go pretty much ass Iowa has:

But lets look at a poll done in New Hampsire, by people in New Hampshire by the University of New Hampshire:


MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Sen. John Kerry's lead in New Hampshire has increased over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the first tracking poll done entirely after the Iowa caucus.






Kerry has the support of 37 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the WMUR-TV tracking poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Dean has slipped to 19 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 4.7 percent.

The turnaround since the Iowa caucus has been dramatic. In a tracking poll before the caucus, Kerry was second, with 24 percent support, while Dean was first, with 33 percent. Since Kerry's victory in Iowa, he has gained 13 percent, while Dean has lost 14 percent.

http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2789061/detail.html

This is a polls of likely democratic promary voters, not a poll of democrats, includes those independents who have indicated that they are going to vote for the democratic candidate.

New Hampshire polls are the polls that give Kerry the widest lead to of all of the polls.

In polls where independents are counted, Kerry still racks up more votes than Dean.

Also the vast majority of New Hampsire Independents live in the southern area of the state which is where Kerry has the stongest overall support.

Finally inside the Kerry campaign, the polls are indicating that Kerry has gained his lead in New Hampshire almost totally from votes siphined away from Dean.

And given New Hampshire unpredictability of a surge is likely to run Clarks direction rather than towards a candidate they gave their support who has suddenly failed to meet up with expectations.

[Ripley]

16. Just goes to show how drastically things can change.

in a short period of time, so Maybe the logic should be...It Could Happen To You Kerry.

[NewHampster]

22. What goes up must come down

and timing is everything

[NewHampster]

24. only 4 points for friday alone

;)

[foo_bar]

29. polls are innately closer to primaries than caucuses

the 20 percentage point differential reflected Kucinich/Gep/Lieberman/Clark supporters that had to switch to the top three or four in each precinct. It speaks well of Kerry's intra-party appeal, but it wouldn't be reproduced in a primary unless all but 4 candidates dropped out a week before.

[Monte Carlo]

5. It's okay, you can gloat.

Oh, wait.

I've seen other polls. I'm concerned, but not overly so.

P.S.: Do you wanna change that title? It wasn't a CNN poll.

[NewHampster]

10. fixed

thanks

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. The Seminal Poster Would Never Let The Facts Get In The Way Of A Good

Argument...

[wyldwolf]

9. CNN disagrees with you...

A CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll of 641 likely primary voters found 35 percent of those who responded preferred Kerry, with Dean following at 23 percent.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/24/elec04.prez.main/index.html

[in_cog_ni_to]

17. I also just heard

Bob Franken on CNN that Clark is the guy to watch out for! :)

[KaraokeKarlton]

18. No NH poll is truly accurate unless they poll more Independents

than Democrats. NH is around 40% reigstered Independents and only about 26% Democrats. That's why pollsters can't seem to get NH polling right...it's the Independents who decide in NH, not the Democrats.

[KFC]

26. Now that is the best post of the day

So right. I'll just wait until tuesday.

[Nicholas_J]

30. Polls show that the independents

Are moving towards Kerry, and Clark, and away from Dean. Most of the votes Kerry has picked up were independantss siphoned away from Dean and not from undecided voters.

Kerrys campaign and polling history during this last race most clasely matches the last person to win in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Al Gore. Kerry like Gore, campe up in the last week before the votes to sirge forward into front runner status. Two weeks before New Hampshire, Gore was 39 points behind Bradley, and in the last week before the nomination became the front runner and stayed there. Kerry's history in this nomination is virtually an exact copy of Gores in 2000, far behind the frontrunner until the last weekm and pulled ahead and stayed ahead just before Iowa and New Hampshire.

All polls now place Dean as the last electable of the canndidates and electability is the promary consideration of New Hampsire votersd two to one. Two voters will go for the most electable candidate rather than an issue driven candidate. And all polls show that candidate to be Kerry, and then Clark.

[KC21304]

11. We will see, won't we ? I heard the same thing before Iowa.

Down was up, and in was out.

[mbee]

19. Did anyone read an article on a Dean event in NH yesterday where

85 were scheduled to show up and instead 1,500 showed up?

[Ripley]

23. YOWZA!!!!

I didn't hear that...doesn't surprise me one bit. The harder they hit Howard with stupid shit, the more people will rally to his side. I say watch out Kerry.

[NewHampster]

20. More from the Zogby quote

More than three-in-five (62%) of Dean’s supporters say their support is ‘very strong,” as do 60% of Kerry’s. There appears to be movement here, as there was in Iowa.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=791

This may not be Iowa but that doesn't mean the second place guy can't blast by the leader.

Go Dean

[sandnsea]

21. Good, right where we want it

Thank god. ;)

[lancdem]

25. It's hard to say

This poll says Dean has stopped his slide, but others do not. We'll know more in the next few days. I think he has gotten his footing back, but whether it's enough, who knows? N.H. voters are known for being unpredictable.

[Adjoran]

31. It's anybody's race

NH voters are historically notorious for switching their votes at the last minute to confound the pollsters, pundits, and party bosses.

They've done it repeatedly in the past. Hart and Buchanan both came from nowhere in the last couple of days to win it. McCarthy's performance so shocked LBJ that he dropped out of the race. They came back to Clinton, giving him second after he was pronounced DOA.

Polls are usually a lot more predictive in primaries than in the Iowa caucuses, but NH is the exception to the rule.

It seems like Kerry will probably win, but just like Dean in Iowa his biggest opponent is the expectation. You won't get any sense at all of whether Dean is coming back until the Monday tracking polls are released. They will measure Friday - Sunday, after the Dean appearances on Dateline and Letterman are factored in. Even then, as they say, "The only poll that counts . . . "

[Nicholas_J]

32. Actually in the both Zogby polls

Dean has not gone anywhere, but his numbers have remaned exactly the same 22 percent. Kerry's lead vartied from day to day, but Deans has not improved at all. IN eitther the daily or the tracking polls.

Tracking polls are far more accurate, as they show support and momentum over time, while the daily polls only show a picture of one particular moment in time. They do not track momentum at all.

[edzontar]

33. The whole thng seems very much up for grabs....

I can tell you that the Dean camp is energized like never before, and we sense a backlash against the Dean-bashing from last week.


We shall see, soon enough, in any case.

[RummyTheDummy]

35. Dean is done done

Stick a fork in the good doctor!

[Guaranteed]

36. .........