Okay folks...the 26 Kerry 22 Dean Zogby poll is NOT a tracking poll

[Guaranteed]

It IS the most recent numbers that we have, because they are numbers from ONLY Friday (yesterday). The rest of these polls that you guys are arguing about are tracking polls. They take into account numbers from the 23rd, 22nd, and perhaps even the 21st. Those old numbers from the 21st and 22nd, which do not take into account Dean's PR offensive (which was on the night of the 22nd, and only spread into the public view totally by last night, the 23rd), SKEW the most recent poll numbers. In this case, since Dean's numbers had been falling, the 21st and 22nd numbers skew his numbers down. AND, if Kerry is falling, his numbers from those days are skewing HIS numbers UP. These tracking polls are very tricky because, since they take into account numbers from three different days, they don't truly show momentum shifts until about 2-3 days after the fact.

SO, yes, the 26 Kerry 22 Dean poll that you're seeing from Zogby IS very preliminary, and comes from a smaller sample, so isn't quite as trustworthy. However, considering that the it takes into account ONLY the numbers from Friday, it is the most accurate poll that we have to go on.

It will help when todays numbers come out this evening.

Thanks!! :)

By the way, I loved seeing that Kerry is BEATING BUSH 49% to 46%!!!

[JI7]

1. kerry has to keep working hard

i always said this is going to be very tough.

[sandnsea]

8. Yes, it's a tough fight

Kerry will be out there fighting for every vote. That's the way it should be.

[jenk]

2. this is the only straw dean supporters can hang on to

I don't know, this poll is not in step with all the others that have Kerry up by close to 20, Lieberman under 10, and Edwards up around 12.

[adamrsilva]

3. Which aren't as recent

did you read the post?

[RummyTheDummy]

12. You mean your massive rationalization?

NT

[NewHampster]

4. The Doctor is back In Town

;)

[Namvet04]

5. Just a reminder of how great Zogby was in Iowa

"In the latest three-day tracking poll, Kerry gained two percentage points to 24 percent, with Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt each dropping two points to 19 percent and John Edwards holding steady at 17 percent." Iowa Jan 17th is the last one I could find and it was a week ago today.

Zogby is always wrong it seems to me. We should start a page on here that you could look at the final polling numbers of everyone and build a history to judge them.

[Guaranteed]

10. Those were tracking polls, right?

So they were 2 or 3 days behind reality.

[Piperay]

11. No mention of

Clark...a first. :wow:

[mohc]

6. One more time

From my post on an earlier thread:

"Pollsters started doing this to roll MoE over 3 days, thus reducing perceived error. The problem is they are polling a moving target, so they tend to lag behind actual sentiment. Basically, the daily polls have a MoE of around 10% by themselves, and average 3 together it drops to 4. Meaning Dean could be up by 6 points ot down by 14 based on a 4 point spread and a 10 MoE. Seeing as other polls are suggesting leads as large as 15-20% with a 4% MoE, my guess is the actual lead is somewhere between 10 and 15%. Do not hang your hat on a single daily, it might be the beginning of a trend, it might just be at the high end of error. If 2 days from now the tracking poll has Dean within 5%, then we will know there was significant movement, but if the other polls all stay where they are, I just do not see that happening."

Now take a look at the ARG poll

21-23
Kerry 34 Clark 19 Dean 15 Edwards 13
20-22
Kerry 31 Clark 20 Dean 18 Edwards 11

Which means the 23rd numbers for Dean must be BELOW 15. For his average to go from 18 to 15, his number on the 23rd (the same day as the Zogby numbers you quote), it would need to be below 15 to pull down the average. Similarly, Kerry's numbers on the 23rd must be above 34, Clark must be below 19, and Edwards must be above 13. I fully expect the next ARG numbers, which will include poll results from today, will have it Kerry-Clark-Edwards-Dean.

[Leilani]

7. Throw all the polls in the garbage!

New Hampshire people love to be unpredictable; They don't make up their minds till the end, & as I remember in 2000, nobody predicted McCain beating Bush. He trounced him by 17 or 18 pts.

I don't think Kerry will run away with this; that's too predictable.
I'm not saying he won't win, I just don't see this as a blowout.

[WiseMen]

9. OK. Dean Beats Kerry in N H. What does that Change? Will that

make Dean more credible as Commander in Chief. Will it make him
more electable nationally. You Have heard the recent national
head-to-head comparison -- Dean is totally destroyed. Kerry destroys Bush.

What do you want.