Polls Mean Nothing. Huge Undecideds. A Dean Win Good For Dems???

[WiseMen]

All the New Hampshire poll numbers are likely in flux. There are a huge number of undecideds in NH still, so anything could happen in voting booth.

OK. Dean could beat Kerry in N H. He also has the money and organization in place across the nation to possibly battle to win the Party nomination.

But, what, fundamentally, does that Change?

Nothing in Dean’s background indicates any military experience, national security experience or foreign policy experience that could be used to defend his credibility as Commander-In-Chief in this tense post-9/11 environment. Deans CIC credentials do not differentiate him significantly from the George Bush of 2000.

Dean’s recent unhappy concession speech adds to the temperament questions which will hang over a contest with Bush in November.


A Newsweek poll is reporting Kerry 49% vs. Bush 46%

Fox is reporting that their new “Presidential” numbers are Kerry 59% vs Dean 26%.

What are our objectives as democrats here. Do we really want Governor Dean to make a primary comeback and win the nomination? Or do we want a shot at beating Bush?

[Guaranteed]

1. Dean has the BEST chance of beating Bush

because he doesn't have the very serious disadvantage of having voted along with most of Bush's policies up until recent months. That doesn't leave Kerry in a good position.

[vi5]

7. And do you have evidence that a majority of Genereal Election voters

...are going to base their vote on who voted AGAINST Bush? Really, I'd be very curious to see this data. I don't recall seeing any polls that say this would be a criteria but I'm sure little ole' me just must have missed that.

[Guaranteed]

10. A challenger has to be able to

give clear and reasonable opposition to the incumbent. The challenger has to distinguish himself from the policies of the previous administration. Otherwise, there's no reason for people to change anything, and they'll just re-elect the incumbent.

[vi5]

13. So answer this question honestly then.....

You dont think Kerry's voting record on a woman's right to choose is easily distinguishable from Bush's?

You don't think Kerry's voting record on the environment is easily distinguishable from Bush's?

You don't think Kerry's military record and willingness to fight and die for his country is easily distinguishable from Bush's?

You don't think Kerry's position on Affirmative Action is easily distinguishable from Bush's?

You don't think Kerry's position on gays and gay rights is easily distinguishable from Bush's?

I could go on, but for now I'd be curious if you really believe that these issues, which are important to a very, very large number of American, are either not important to you or if you can honestly say thta there is no difference between the positions of Kerry and Bush.

[papau]

2. Dean to either win - or to stay in long enough to force Kerry GE win mode

The Kerry's spine transfer from Dean might disappear is the Doctor is knocked out now.

Kerry needs Dean so as to get used to the mode that will allow Kerry to win the GE..

And I do not see much of a problem if Dean is in the GE - I think he will win.

[Leilani]

3. Don't trust FOX

about anything! They will lie, manipulate anything to help Bush.

The debate Thursday should have made this obvious; they had even planned the post debate coverage .

[dsc]

4. The very same poll you site here

has Bush up on Dean only 50 to 45. That is with the most negative coverage imaginable. Gore had a war record, experience, and a good economy. Plus he was a real southerner. And it did him how much good?

[PAMod]

29. You took the words right out of my mouth...

again!

Kerry is up a few points with the most positive press of the campaign for ANY Democratic candidate!

Dean, who has been kicked repeatedly and left for dead is only 5 points behind?

C'mon people, wake up! Dean may be the only way we're getting into the White House without an invitation or a press pass.

[Rose Siding]

5. The only thing Bush or Rove have to fear from Dems

is an energized, engaged electorate. Who is most able to deliver that?

Also noteworthy when discussing likely electability, no WA insider has defeated an incumbent pres since Lincoln.

[patricia92243]

6. Kerry has recent cancer-he CANNOT win against Bush.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Maybe Colin Powell Can't Be Sec Of State Cuz He Has The Same "Cancer"

as Kerry....


The Dean folks must be desperate...

[Lisa0825]

8. Would you please stop perpetuating that lie?!

"Dean’s recent unhappy concession speech adds to the temperament questions which will hang over a contest with Bush in November."


IT WAS NOT AN UNHAPPY SPEECH! It was a freakin'pep rally! I was there! He was thrilled with the overpowering enthusiasm of his supporters. Was it over the top? Sure, you could say that, but STOP saying it was unhappy or angry, and buying into the bullshit the media feeds you.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Dean Is Unstable...I Don't Need A Freakin Guru To Tell Me That...

I heard the wounded donkey scream with my own ears...

It sounded like a man in the final throes of personality disintegration....

[Zinnola]

16. Dean is unstable??

Give me flucking break! You must prefer your candidates to have lobotomies to pass your litmus test. There is nothing wrong with a passionate candidate. Thank Gawd, Dean has passion.

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[markus]

33. Yeah, Dean probably started to lose it

when the Kerry team had him anesthetized, took out that large chuck of his brain containing his entire program for the country, and stiched it into their own guy.

[AntiCoup2K4]

19. More senseless Dean bashing over a 2 second scream

Kerry folks must be desperate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I'm Not A Kerry Folk

but I doubt they are desperate after the ass kicking John Kerry gave him in Iowa....

Maybe that's why he was angry...

He still had John Kerry's foot up his ass....

[WiseMen]

46. I think the Scream was fine. Just stupid reaction. But Media Focus Helped

Dean a lot.

Who knows. That may have been the intent. They certainly didn't
want to give kerry more air time.

Even after Iowa, Dean gets twice the coverage of anyone else, including Edwards.

[Cuban_Liberal]

24. I heard it, too.

I also SAW it, and it struck me as just exactly what it was--- a 'fire up the troops' speech. :shrug:

[progressivebydesign]

28. Are you just jumping from thread to thread to attack Dean?

I just saw numerous posts of yours identical to these. What's the agenda? All you're doing is making people tune out to you. If you have something useful to say about the topics, we'd love to hear it.

Dean was happy and jubilant and was losing his voice.

[WiseMen]

14. I said "UNHAPPY" to refer to the effects on media audience. A media quirk

in my view.

[HereSince1628]

12. Actually Dean has experience with the greatest threat to H.S.

Deficits. No one else has quite the same record on that.

By using phrases like times of crisis or tense times, we essentially buy the republicans agenda. Commander in Chief outranks all generals...even if it is a dumbshit CIC like the one we have.

My point being if any of us can pick something at select group of traits that highlight our candidate. That's the nature of marketing.

I am unconvinced that what this country needs is only about the war on terrorism. This is all rather like Saturday morning infomercials, I have n doubt that the RonCo rotiserre cooker or the George Foreman grill works. But I am not convinced I need either.

[isbister]

15. the greatest threat to H.S.

is bush

[Cuban_Liberal]

17. Since no one can know what the voters will be thinking in November.

I think it's rather a pointless exercise at this time to weigh national polls into any serious, critical thinking about selecting our candidate. We, as Democrats, need to decide who has the best 'vision' for the America we want to have post-Bush, and vote accordingly.

Screw national polls!

[WiseMen]

36. I agree. Need to vote on the fundamentals

[ACPS65]

18. Do we want Dean to make a primary comeback and win the nomination?"

NO!!! :puke:

[Cuban_Liberal]

22. I don't share your loathing of Dr. Dean.

I'd prefer Edwards to win, but Dr. Dean could very well appeal to a LOT of latent and barely-submerged voter anger.

[LuminousX]

20. I don't let polls make decisions for me

[WiseMen]

25. That's Kind off my point. Regardless of the Polls, What's Best Given

what has transpired over the last month.

[Forkboy]

43. Not off point at all

your whole premise here is based on polls.

[quaker bill]

26. Another false dichotomy and appeal to fear

from the usual source.

These national polls are an artifact of the last weeks events. Prior to that Dean did consistently as well or better than Kerry in such irrelevant beauty contests. If Dean defeats Kerry in a few contests, the numbers will flip around just as fast the other way.

[fabius]

27. Democracy is good for Dems!

I'm for Howard Dean, but what we're seeing is the collapse of conventional wisdom and TV punditry. Strap in for a wild ride!

The more interesting this race is, the better for us. So I'm not THAT disappointed with the Iowa results. It gives voters a chance to see our strongest candidates on their merits alone, not just on the media "buzz".

The Democratic (and some independent) voters will decide. That's a good thing! Because the candidate that emerges as the leader (this may take a few more weeks of months, folks!)will have demonstrated strength, skill, message, popular support and organization to excel in an awesome field.

IMHO, even a contested convention wouldn't be a bad thing. This is a real education for all American voters.

Chimpy's anointing in NY will pale by comparison.

[cthrumatrix]

41. I would love to see the media reduced in "king making".... and start

by sharing more truth about our existing president.

[Kipepeo]

30. Dean has the best chance

I think in answer to your question "what does it change?" if Dean wins the nomination...it changes the face of politics in America. It means that the American people once again have control of a process that the media and the pundits and the corporations have been controlling.

I'll tell you what won me over to Dean. It was his passion. He has, in my opinion, more passion and honesty and energy than any of the other candidates. I think that's why BushCo. is so afraid of him and has been trying for a while now to pretend like they'd love to take him on (because in actuality they wouldn't). They keep puting forth that they're scared of Kerry & Liberman precisely because they *aren't* scared of them. That's my take on it anyway. Why would they be *honest* about who scares them and who doesn't? How does that help them? I think they know how to run a campaign against someone like Lieberman or Kerry. But they don't know how to compete with Dean's sincerity and energy. When I first saw that "scream" of his I felt energized and hopeful and I *still* don't understand what all the media's fuss is about.

In my mind, Dean has the ability to mobilize voters who have never voted before and voters who have become disillusioned and quit showing up. I think he's our best and most sincere bet. That's my opinion.

[PassingFair]

31. I believe...

Dean will root out the compromised Dems. The beneficiaries of Global Crossing, the partners of "Raptor" and other Enron tactics. Is Washington afraid of Dean. Damn right they are, and a whole bunch of dems are shaking in their $500.00 shoes, too.
Bush has not been able to destroy our country's values and reputation single-handedly.
A vote for Dean is a vote for a bloodless revolution.

[newyawker99]

34. Hi Kipepeo!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Abigail147]

44. Yes! Yes! Yes!

That's what I'm talking about.

[markus]

32. No, we rather nominate a guy who's been out fundraising for Bush

I'm sorry, this is America, where we are all free to reinvent ourselves somewhat as needed. However, I am not buying that in a presidential candidate.

Talk to be about Kerry or Edwards (I have objects to both). But if your CiC talk is for Clark, I'm just not buying.

If we toss out Clarks as simply to unDemocratic (or at least to uncertainly Democratic) to possibly win the nomination, that leaves Edwards and Clark.

Edwards five year in the Senate doesn't offer much.

Kerry has the CiC qualities we want, and (as Ed Gillespe (sp?) was chortling in my newspaper today) ranks more liberally than Ted Kennedy.

I love Ted Kennedy. My wife worked for Ted Kennedy. I do not want to spend May-November listening to "more liberal than Ted Kennedy" ads. I'm sorry. Some things just work in this country, and that one will. It's solid gold plate, guaranteed to never fail or your money back.

[WiseMen]

35. Looks Like Dean is closing the Gap. Congrats to Dean Supporters.

Question still remains: Is this good for the GE.

[John_H]

37. Dean second in NH. Goes bye bye after string of fourths in south.

Relax. The voters of America are stopping Dean.

[cthrumatrix]

38. these polls go with the flow...if Dean wins...he will do well in the south

he has rebounded and with time and his message...dean has a great chance.

[WiseMen]

42. Zogby Trent suggest that Dean is now ahead. Interesting. Could Stall today

[Meldread]

39. Dean vs Bush

"Nothing in Dean’s background indicates any military experience, national security experience or foreign policy experience that could be used to defend his credibility as Commander-In-Chief in this tense post-9/11 environment."

To that I have two words: http://www.veteransforpeace.org/Max_Cleland_070303.htm">Max Cleland. Find out what happened to him, and it'll prove to you that his background in the military isn't going to save him from Rove.

"Deans CIC credentials do not differentiate him significantly from the George Bush of 2000."
To that I say the voters are more worried about jobs, the economy, and domestic issues. Dean has a proven record on those issues. Yes, as a governor he doesn't really have all that much experience on foreign issues. Of course neither did Bush. It's about framing the debate and we know Dean can do that -- he's done it with the Democratic Nomination. All Bush has to run on against Dean is his image, and even there Dean is stronger. Bush also has his money, but Dean has proven that he is able to raise the cash necessary to beat Bush. He's already raised more money than Bill Clinton did. That will give him the ability to defend himself against the GOP attack ads.

Dean is a fighter. We know he'll fight. He isn't afraid to fight, and because of that I am confident that when he enters the arena with Bush he will win. Dean is even boldly going into the south trying to take votes away from Bush -- Democrats in the past have mostly written off the South as Republican Territory.

I just don't think Bush has what it takes to beat Dean. I honestly don't.

[janx]

40. I don't think so either. Dean, out of all of the candidates,

is the anti-Bush.

He has a background and ancestors steeped for centuries in American history , and while some people put him down for this (because it's not hip), it makes him better able (and determined!) to fight for what American stands for--and more importantly, what it does NOT stand for: George W. Bush.

We need this now more than ever if we're to save this country.

[WiseMen]

45. A lot of good Dem feel how you do. Many very senior Dem Analysts Don't