Hypothetical: If Dean comes in 3rd or 4th, how soon would he drop out?

[mot78]

Dean needs to come in second or higher in order to stay viable, but if he comes in 3rd or 4th, then he's effectively dead as a candidate. Would he hang on until February 3rd or Super Tuesday, or would he drop out within days after NH?

[Walt Starr]

1. Why would he drop out?

He's got the money for the long haul and will probably stay in for the long haul.

[mot78]

2. Because we need to unite early to repel * attacks

But I'm not writing Dean off though, because as you said Walt, he still has a good organization. But if he finishes worse than 2nd, I don't think that organization will matter much.

[sallyseven]

4. There are a lot of primary's to go

Keep your shirts on. Top 4 can change. The poll that counts is the election. Bush is a slug and we must get him out of the white house and his silly bunch of cohorts.

[Walt Starr]

6. Exactly, he would absolutely have to remain in the race until Feb. 3

If he did poorly in New Hampshire AND finished every race on Februay 3rd as a distant third, he may have to consider dropping out.

I think the liklihood of that is extremely remote.

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. Agreed

These hypothetical discussions, while interesting, are all potentially loaded because they are suggestive of specific unfavorable scenarios for the candidates. It kind of has the effect of push polling, planting seeds of doubt. I know it is all Innocent, and we are all spinning out every possibility in our minds for our candidates, but the real results will be known soon.

I think it can be said of all the candidates. IF they are not competitive in many races through Feb. 3rd, they have big problems. In many cases finishing 3rd or 4th somewhere is survivable, especially if the field is bunched, but pretty soon people will expect to see positive results from all the campaigns.

[dansolo]

14. So now we should all unite?

When Dean was leading, there were people here who were cheering for a brokered convention. I want Dean to stay in as long as he wants. We need someone to attack Bush, because God knows Kerry and Lieberman aren't.

[youngred]

18. No way

we need a strong candidate the party can support. I'm sick of the primary game that lets a certain few states decide who the nominee is EVERY election cycle.

We will coalesce behind the candidate, but it has to be one we can agree on.

No one is dead yet...except maybe lieberman ;-)

[leyton]

3. If he does poorly in New Hampshire,

nobody's going to vote for him, no matter how many people knock on their door. Sorry, but if he was doing so well for so long, and had so much organization in Iowa, and couldn't pull it off, and does poorly, he's not going to keep going.

Money doesn't win elections; votes do.

[pacifictiger]

everyone seems to be

falling under the spell of the magic media hypnotic message - Dean is "unelectable." Get a grip and wake up everyone!!
He NEEDS to stay in the race, if only to keep the other "more polished" candidates fired up and speaking directly to the people instead of run-of-the-mill lawyer-like double talk. If Dean gets out of this horse race now, Bush will undoubtedly win. Stop talking strategy at this point and focus on the commonalities of the message with passion. If Dean does nothing more than bring media attention, he will serve an admirable purpose - it doesn't matter who gets the credit in the end, but that the job gets done. The democratic convention will likely be a brokered deal anyway for the final pick for nominee - Dean needs to have a means to stay in a neck and neck horse race with Kerry until then, without either of them destroying the other. Bush/Cheney only won because Rove and the others were propping them up with wizard of oz smoke and mirrors. It'll take teamwork, wisdom, heart, and courage to expose that man behind the curtain.

[THUNDER HANDS]

5. but how long is the long haul

I mean, how many of these supporters are going to keep donating to a campaign that comes in 3rd or 4th every time?

Dead was supposed to be taking either Iowa or New Hampshire. That's why he spent over two years in Iowa. And that's why his meetups had his supporters writing letters to New Hampshire voters. (I know because I wrote two of them)

Dean's bread and butter was supposed to be these first two states. That's why he talked about the south as if it was going to be a challenge that he'd have to address. Because he had to assume that his next-door state would hold for him.

Now he's stumbled coming out of the gate and he has to go to where everyone thought he might struggle. All the money in the world doesn't equal votes. Dean NEEDS to win New Hampshire.

[Rowdyboy]

7. He has money, he has time, he has potential

Why should he drop out, even if he finishes 4th in one quirky little state?

[HalfManHalfBiscuit]

8. Right after he comes in 4th in SC

He's already dead.

[Langis]

9. He will only drop out

When he does not win any states on super tuesday.

[mohc]

10. Though I do not want Dean to win....

I hope he stays in. He can do two things. 1) Help keep attention on the Democrats and their message instead of letting Bush get all the free air time. 2) Create a brokered convention.

Lets be truthful, over the past few election cycles, the networks have tried to show less and less of the conventions. There simply isn't anything going on at them. But if the Republican convention is just a coronation, while the Democratic convention actually decides the nominee, there will be a lot more media interest. They will be falling all over themselves saying how historic it is, how long its been since a convention meant something etc. And if the Democrats use it as an opportunity to unite behind a leader, it could have a very beneficial effect.

[mot78]

13. Why is a brokered convention a good thing

It would only divide us to the point where we can't unite behind ABB.

[mohc]

15. Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't

But if the candidate with the most and second most delegates join as the President-VP ticket, and that makes up 90% of the delegates, I think it would be a good show of unity. If a backroom deal decides things, yes it could get ugly. But more likely in this campaign I would see Edwards/Kerry or Kerry/Edwards joining.

[hellhathnofury]

11. We've got enough $ to go until probably Michigan.

I don't think we have any intention to drop out right now regardless of NH results.

[feckerman]

16. Thats like asking the same thing about Clark...

What if he comes in a disappointing fourth etc.

Take your answer, change the name.

[Josh]

19. Clark's day is Feb 3 and Super Tuesday, but I agree, Dean

has no reason to drop out, even if he comes 5th in New Hampshire, although that would be a bit of a concern. He and Clark are the only candidates with a 50-state campaign in resources.

[youngred]

17. No, He doesn't need to finish first or second to stay viable

except in the media's eyes. Dean still has the money and organization to keep going, and Iowa and New Hampshire for all their early importance do not carry a lot of delegates.

[paulk]

20. There will be a lot of pressure on him (and Lieberman)

to drop out if they don't live up to expectations in NH.

It's not in the interests of the Dem. party to drag the process out - the whole reason the primary season was truncated was so we could establish our candidate early.

[pacifictiger]

22. since when has

conventional wisdom panned out in this election so far. I say keep the republican strategy machine guessing as long as absolutely possible. By keeping it a neck and neck horse race with mostly similar positions between our boys, will keep the media from focusing so much attention on bush for months to come. Not a bad strategy from my common sense eyes.

[zulchzulu]

21. Dean will stay in up to at least Super Tuesday

His supporters deserve that much at least.

[not systems]

23. When another gets 50% otherwise he needs to stay.

He single handedly prevented a SOTU bounce by saying "Yeagh".

[TheStateChief]

24. I don't get why everyone says Dean is done

if he doesn't finish in the top two (or even the top three). He has good bases of support and good organizations in dozens of states. Kerry is still trying to pay off his new mortgage. Also, can someone please tell me why Dean should drop out when there remains a strong chance that he'll wield considerable power at the convention even if he doesn't get half the delegates?

[mzmolly]

25. I want Dean to stay in this till the very end, and I will give him $$ to

do so.

[not systems]

26. I'm with you.

He needs to stack up as many delegates as possible
and use them for leverage later.

Or just sweep back to victory.

Either will make me happy.

[RetroLounge]

27. Uhm, I don't think Dean will be dropping out anytime soon

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