Prediction: Dean's Iowa speech will win him the Presidency.

[milkyway]

I know initially it's hurt him tremendously, and it could end up killing his candidacy, but I don't think that will happen. The word "politician" is used almost as an insult in our society. A politician is seen as someone who will say whatever people want to hear, with no real convictions of his own. They are so afraid of offending someone that they parse every word and cautiously tiptoe around every problem. They have lost touch with their own humanity, their soul ground to dust by their own filters and the media machine. No one can ever feel this way again about Howard Dean. He will never be seen as a stuffed suit or a slick-talking salesman making empty promises.

People dislike the media as much as politicians, and already many people see Dean as a victim. The endless replaying of the speech causes it to lose its shock value to those who were originally shocked by it (even the collapse of the WTC has lost its shock value since we've seen it a million times). As the primary season moves on, the lasting impression people will have about Dean is that he's an enthusiastic fighter who's his own man. For decades, the Dems have offered up Presidential candidates that are portrayed as being soft. "Yeah, they're ideas sound nice, but it's a tough world out there and they're too wimpy to protect you from it." In the end, too many working class people end up voting against themselves.

After four years of getting screwed by George Bush (and eight years of watching slippery Bill Clinton's skillful maneuvering), the stereotypical Joe Sixpack will gradually find Howard Dean a politician they can identify with. He will see that Dean's policies are for him. And for once, this politician seems to really mean it and will stand up and fight like an S.O.B. for him when he's in office.

[jjmalonejr]

1. I wouldn't bet on that.

And I'm surprised to hear you say that the collapse of the WTC has lost its shock value.

Not for me.

[SlavesandBulldozers]

5. yeah

i don't think the mentioning of 9/11, in passing, really helps Dean's cause.

Maybe he has what it takes, maybe he doesn't. If he does then he will show us, if he doesn't then he won't. He's already addressing his speech, he could kill it by talking about it.

If I were him I'd ask the American audience if they thought his speech made him sound crazy, they should go back and watch the last 2 or 3 State of the Union addresses.

[NashVegas]

16. But I Wouldn't Bet Against It, Either

Look how fast those sound files got around.

If you have a Gnutella client, try doing searches on "howard dean," "dean iowa" and "dean scream."

11:50 Saturday night and over 100 active hosts show up.

[lancdem]

2. I do think it was way overblown

[jjmalonejr]

3. Yeah, it was overblown.

But you can't put that genie back in the bottle.

I don't think Dean's finished, but that speech hurt him bad, it didn't help him.

[lancdem]

4. I agree

That combined with his poor showing in Iowa was a double whammy.

[PassingFair]

8. Apparently, you haven't seen this....

Have you seen the speech from the audience's point of view...He was shouting to make himself heard over the very loud crowd...

http://www.idiomstudio.com/

Perspective makes all the difference. You've been hoodwinked by FAUX. They edited out all of the crowd noise. As a lunch mom at school, I'd look pretty stupid trying to herd the young'uns into the lunch lines if you took all the din and noise out of the picture! This version should help you see things in a different way.

[beaconess]

11. Can't blame this one on FAUX

No one edited out the crowd. The tv networks - ALL OF THEM - took a direct feed from the multbox, as they always do at these events. No conspiracy. Every network had the same audio.

It doesn't really matter what the people in the room thought. Millions of people across the country saw it as well and it didn't look good to people who aren't already on the Dean bandwagon. And as an introduction to the many people who had never really paid attention to him before, it was a disaster.

Regardless of whether you think the coverage was overblown - and even I believe that the Dean screech got a day and a half more wall-to-wall coverage than it deserved - a substantial number of people who saw it live reacted to it negatively without being influenced by the networks. Whining about how it was an unfair portrayal won't change that - everyone knows what they saw and it wasn't pretty.

It was bad, however you slice it. And it was no one's fault but Dean's. He can recover, but it's time to stop blaming everybody but the candidate for his behavior. He blew it.

[PassingFair]

14. You are wrong.

Watch and listen to the video, please.

[drfemoe]

37. Why did Kerry's and Edward's

multbox feeds include crowd reaction and not Dean's?

[drfemoe]

31. gods that makes me cry

:cry:

[MoonRiver]

6. I respectfully disagree. That one speech isn't what will sink him though.

He's racked up an accumulation of campaign blunders that will keep haunting him. His "recovery" amounts to saying little to nothing with no passion. He can't be Howard and win, but the un-Howard resonates with nobody.

[Nicholas_J]

15. True

Dean has had so many instances of having to say "what I meant was" that it has literlly ended all of his chances of a rebound anywhere, and wherever he runs from now on, those are going to be the very same issues focused on in the local media in the week before each primary and caucus.

No matter what, the local newspapers and local television stations are going to go back and look at each candidates blunders, and will have to go into overtime covering Deans. No matter who is in the lead, the media is going to cover every Dean mis-statement, and we can fully expect to hear the scream repeated when C-SPAN covers each local coverage of the events at hand.

"What I meant was" are the four words in politics that are the epitaphs of every political campaign.

[drfemoe]

33. I hope that ...

"the American people understand ..." are the four words that sink the reign of terror that belongs to *B*.

[Beaker]

7. keep telling yourself that...maybe it'll come true

hey, we've all been there- having your hopes dashed, and the wind taken out of your sails doesn't feel very good...but unless the Electoral College this time around is made up entirely of comedy writers, your prediction doesn't stand a chance.

[beaconess]

12. That's funny

[ACPS65]

9. Prediction:

Dean's toast.

[RUexperienced]

10. President of What?????

The WWE? Vermont Debating Association?

[adamrsilva]

13. I wouldn't go that far

But I think there's plenty of non-political people who would find it refreshing.

[mitchum]

17. A Bitter Denial...

of reality

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[SheilaT]

19. I thought you weren't allowed to call

Dean supporters Deaniacs.

And a loss in NH will not end Dean's campaign. Bill Clinton didn't win in Iowa. Nor in NH. And somehow he went on to win the nomination and the election.

Dean has staying power. He has tons of money. He has phenomenally loyal supporters who are under no illusions that he's perfect. He's in it for the long haul.

[Blitz]

21. Bill Clinton didn't campaign in Iowa

Whereas Dean did his very best to win it. Moreover, Dean is the former governor of a New England state and was expected to win New Hampshire (and Iowa). Clinton was a southern governor who, as expected, did well in the later primaries (as Edwards is poised to do should he do reasonably well in New Hampshire). It's only going to get harder for Dean after New Hampshire. He's bleeding in the water, the sharks are circling and all of the money in the world won't keep him afloat. As for his supporters, they each only get to vote once, no matter how enthusiastic they are (unless they're from Illinois or Louisiana ;-) ).

And you're right. It is against the rules to call Dean supporters Deaniacs. You should alert if you feel that it is warranted.

[mitchum]

22. But I think Deanial is all right

[jsw_81]

24. Oops

I must have missed that little detail when I read the 5,000 word "rules" section.

[jsw_81]

26. This is not 1992, and Howard Dean is not Bill Clinton

In 1992 Iowa wasn't even in play because favorite-son Tom Harkin was running. In New Hampshire, Clinton (who was from Arkansas not neighboring Vermont) made a strong 2nd place showing after almost being destroyed by a sex scandal and the draft controversy.

Believe me, Dean IS finished unless he wins New Hampshire. If he places second, he might stick around to get trounced in South Carolina, but if he places third it's all over; he'll probably withdraw from the race the next morning like Gephardt did after Iowa.

What Dean needs is nothing short of victory. The silver or bronze just won't cut it.

[Blitz]

20. In other news, the sun is discovered to be ice cold

Wait. That's not true either.

Kerry isn't running away with New Hampshire because he suddenly became more charismatic, you know.

[zoeyfong]

25. the scream came *after* iowa, so it didn't cause kerry to win

you're right, kerry has not become more charismatic. basically nothing has changed, including the scream. the only thing that has happened in the last couple weeks is a major case of cold feet, and thinking dean can't win. my prediction is that independents won't vote for a "massachusetts liberal" (kerry) and a significant number of liberals won't vote for him either because of his spineless vote to get americans killed unnecessarily. Therefore kerry is actually less electable than dean, but he is getting last minute support from people who think he looks good on paper.

[Andromeda]

28. That's for sure!

"Kerry isn't running away with New Hampshire because he suddenly became more charismatic, you know."

[Kipepeo]

32. charasmatic how? :)

They mean delivering Dean's speeches with the enthusiasm of a toaster?

Sorry to those Kerry supporters, But I think Dean is our best chance. I'd take him over a Kerry who is trying to imitate him (but more polished ya know!) any day.

[zoeyfong]

23. probably some truth to that; kerry is a politician and a follower

I think the scream flap and the kerry surge are all totally based on the dems getting cold feet, and thinking at the last moment that they had better make the "safe" choice (kerry). As time goes on people are going to remember why they preferred dean in the first place. It is only a question of whether that will happen before the primaries are over.

[Andromeda]

27. Good analysis...

you very well could be right and since I'm a Dean supporter I really WANT you to be right.

Dean is a rare politician. He has principles, humanity and a grit I haven't seen since Harry Truman. Most young posters in this forum probably don't know much about Harry Truman or the things he accomplished.

I'd also be willing to bet that most posters here don't remember much about Dukakis---the Democratic nominee who got the pants beat off him in 1988 by George Herbert Walker Bush. It's been said that Kerry might be another Dukakis.

Oh, lucky us.

[jsw_81]

30. You're right, Howard Dean is a rare politician

It's a rare politician who will tell a journalist that he had a panic attack after becoming governor of a small, rural state. It's a rare politician who will call for clean, honest government while simultaneously locking his own records in a vault for a decade. It's a rare politician who won't even campaign with his own wife. It's a rare politician who will start yelling and screaming like a lunatic on national television.

It's almost like Dean wants to lose. Who knows, maybe he does. From what I've read, he only got into the race back in '02 because he wanted health care to be a front-burner issue; he never imagined that he might actually win the nomination, much less the White House.

[frustrated_lefty]

29. Gut response

Dean said I watched my son playing sports and I yelled for him. Was it presidential? No. Will I not do that? No. Just because I'm running doesn't mean I don't have feelings, it doesn't mean I'm not a DAD!

At a gut level, we all want our dads to be proud, and Dean is that and he's not ashamed for it. He shouldn't be.

[beaconess]

35. But I want my president to know the difference between a soccer game

and a national television appearance.

I'm sure there are times when Dean might act like a real nutty guy. He may be a hoot dancing around his living room in his underwear with his tie wrapped around his head, cracking up his wife and kids with his Wacky Dad act. But that doesn't mean that he should do it at a state dinner or expect no one to comment on it if he did.

Time and place mean something and knowing the difference is an important aspect to being "presidential."

[drfemoe]

34. so many death notices

Well a dead guy beat John Ashen-croft, so there is a precedent.

[K8-EEE]

36. Dream A Little Dream Of Dean...

Wow I really think you're dreaming my friend....all indications are that he's sinking like a stone and everyone else is scrambling for pieces of his ex-momentum.

Hey I wouldn't mind if it happened though.