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MEMORANDUM
TO: (DELETED)
FROM: (DELETED)
RE: Tennessee survey results
Our Tennessee polling data finds Harold Ford, Jr. with a commanding lead in a
possible Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate nomination in 2006. The general election
race is wide open with no candidate holding a lead outside the margin of sampling error. In
short, Harold Ford, Jr. is the overwhelming choice of Tennessee Democrats to be their
nominee, and Ford is in a competitive position with all potential Republican opponents.
Primary Vote Performance
In a possible Democratic Senate primary, Harold Ford, Jr. leads Rosalind Kurita by
better than four-to-one, garnering 62% of likely democratic primary voters to Kurita's 15%.
Ford's advantage is not simply based on name recognition, as he leads by 70%-18% among
those who are familiar with Kurita.
Democratic Primary Vote Preference
If the Democratic primary was held today and the
candidates were Harold Ford, Jr. and Rosalind
Kurita, for whom would you vote?
Likely Voters
Harold Ford, Jr.............. 62%
Rosalind Kurita ............. 15
Undecided.................... 23
By contrast, the Republican nomination is shaping up as a dogfight with Ed Bryant
and Van Hilleary holding an advantage over Bob Corker. Bryant has the early lead with
35% of likely republican primary voters, Hilleary is strongly positioned with 26%, and
Corker lags behind with 15%.
Republican Primary Vote Preference
If the Republican primary was held today and the candidates
were Bob Corker, Ed Bryant, and Van Hilleary,
for whom would you vote?
Likely Voters
Ed Bryant .................... 35%
Van Hilleary ................. 26
Bob Corker................... 15
Undecided.................... 24
General Election Vote Performance
All three possible general election match-ups are at or within the margin of sampling
error. Harold Ford, Jr. leads Bob Corker 39% to 34%, right at the margin of sampling error.
Ford garners 38% of the vote in match-ups with both Bryant (40%) and Hilleary (41%) -
both within the margin of error.
General Election: Ford vs. Corker
If the 2006 general election for U.S. Senate were held today
and the candidates were Harold Ford, Jr. and
Bob Corker, for whom would you vote? If
you had to decide, which candidate would you lean towards
supporting?
Likely Voters
Harold Ford, Jr.............. 28%
(Lean Ford, Jr.)............. 11
Bob Corker................... 24
(Lean Corker) ............... 10
Undecided.................... 27
General Election: Ford vs. Hilleary
If the 2006 general election for U.S. Senate were held today
and the candidates were Harold Ford, Jr. and
Van Hilleary, for whom would you vote?
If you had to decide, which candidate would you lean
towards supporting?
Likely Voters
Harold Ford, Jr.............. 29%
(Lean Ford, Jr.)............. 9
Van Hilleary ................. 32
(Lean Hilleary).............. 9
Undecided.................... 20
General Election: Ford vs. Bryant
If the 2006 general election for U.S. Senate were held today
and the candidates were Harold Ford, Jr. and Ed
Bryant, for whom would you vote? If you
had to decide, which candidate would you lean towards
supporting?
Likely Voters
Harold Ford, Jr.............. 30%
(Lean Ford, Jr.)............. 8
Ed Bryant .................... 30
(Lean Bryant) ............... 10
Undecided.................... 22
Harold Ford, Jr. has consolidated support among Democrats, and potential
Republican candidates have the support of the majority of respondents who identify as
Republican. Regardless of which Republican is on the ballot, more independent respondents
are undecided than favor any one candidate. As this and the overall level of support
without leaners shows, the 2006 Senate race is at a very early stage. But even at this
stage, it is clear that Harold Ford, Jr. is in a strong position to win this U.S. Senate seat.
The survey shows clear evidence that Tennessee voters are more interested in
electing a Senator who will do what is best for the state than simply someone who will
automatically support Bush administration proposals, thus furthering the case that Ford is
well-positioned for the U.S. Senate contest. Likewise, voters' top three policy concerns
(health care, jobs, education) are issues on which Ford's record is superior to that of any of
the prospective Republican nominees.
TECHNICAL NOTE: This memorandum summarizes results from a telephone poll of a randomly selected
sample of 600 registered voters in the state of Tennessee who say they definitely or probably will vote in the 2006
November general election. Interviewing was conducted March 22nd through March 24th, 2005. The sample for the
survey was selected in a manner to insure that every household in the state of Tennessee with a working telephone
was equally likely to be included in the sample. Special care was taken to insure that the geographic and
demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented in the sample. The estimation error
associated with a sample of 600 is 4.0 percent at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases,
the results of this poll are within 4.0 points, plus or minus, of the results that would have been obtained if all
probable voters in the state of Tennessee had been interviewed.
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