Brand New Boston Herald Poll Kerry 35 Dean 23 Edwards 14 Clark 12

[ringmastery]

http://news.bostonherald.com/national/national.bg?articleid=651

[Zomby Woof]

1. Edwards and Dean

Expect those numbers to reverse when they leave Dean's backyard and enter Edwards's. Kerry will drop a bit too, but certainly will have some big mo'.

Dean will quit by Easter.

[DJcairo]

3. NH has got to be the only state where Dean has any real support left

They know him well and all his campaigning there has given him an established core of support. But I just don't think, no matter how much money he blows on this thing, he can repair himself in the Feb 3rd states. He's fighting for a comeback in NH but I think in the end, he's doing it more for his supporters than anything. They like to see him fighting and so fight he will.

[jsw_81]

7. I think you're right

Publicly, Dean will sound optimistic and yell about how he's never giving up hope (all losing candidates do this in the end), but privately his campaign officials are probably preparing their resumes so that they can find a job after next Tuesday.

[fabius]

8. I think you'll be surprised

Dean should be strong in DE, SC, AZ, NM, and in WA on Feb. 7th. It'll probably be over by the time the Oregon primary rolls around (May) which is a shame. If we'd have gone first it would be Dean by a landslide.

[DJcairo]

2. Thanks for that. Edwards beats Clark seems very likely.

At this point, my gut tells me
Kerry by 10-15 points
Dean
Edwards close third
Clark
Lieberman

[ringmastery]

4. Clark is melting away

I think some of his supporters may be giving Dean another look.

[ozone_man]

5. I suppose there is some degree of symbiotic relationship.

Dean and Clark are the grass roots candidates, so it is natural for supporters to consider the other, if things don't look bright. Kerry and Edwards are the consumate Washington insiders, so they will be the last to draw from these two.

Who knows, it might take a Dean/Clark or Clark/Dean ticket to slay the corporate insiders.

[AP]

10. Clark supporters are almost definitely going to Kerry, with a few to

Edwards.

[WI_DEM]

6. the key paragraph is the last one in the article

stating that the race could tighten significantly if Independents turn out in large numbers in the Democratic primary--"which is likely"--why? because Bush is unopposed so why should they vote in that primary--expect lots of independents to vote in the democratic primary--and remember too that polls in 2000 indicated that Bush was going to win the NH primary but because of large numbers of independents voting McCain won it by 18-points. Also, in 2000, polls indicated that Gore had a big lead in NH over Bradley, but due to independents Bradley lost by a relatively narrow margin.

I also heard today that NH polls tend to be unreliable--due to the large numbers of independents which can vote in either primary--so the only poll which counts is on Tuesday.

[mitchum]

9. Absolutely Beautiful Data

Knock 'em out, John