Momentum -- Will states disagree less due to the internet?

[Shanty Oilish]

I'm looking at a thread where they're saying Edwards will win big in the South despite Kerry's momentum up here, and suddenly I wonder...

When there's no incumbent candidate, do the states tend to agree more on the nominee, as mass communication advances? I'm sure Lincoln got a bounce from newspapers, and radio in the 20's and 30's must have affected the outcomes then, and television after that. I don't have the records, but is there a tendency along the way for regional differences to lessen? Should we expect the internet to enhance a uniformity of outcomes in state primaries? I'm thinking that people nowadays are so tuned in to national news from the internet, momentum in NH is going to influence the succeeding primaries more than it would have a few decades ago.

How much does it matter anymore that someone is popular in the northeast, or stinks in the south? Will voters instead look to earlier wins and lean toward the winners there? After all, this is ABB year and we're all Dems, most of us want a decisive selection asap so we can get on with it. Is momentum more significant than it used to be?

[Eric J in MN]

1. The candidates are polling significantly differently now, even though

The candidates are polling significantly differently in different states now, even though we're post-Iowa caucus, so I expect this to continue post-NH primary.

Kerry will probably win NH and Edwards or Clark will probably win South Carolina.

[Melodybe]

2. If Kerry wins NH and Edwards is # 2, I'm throwing my support to Edwards

Kerry plans on winning the country without the south. That pisses me off because there are legions of dem votes to be gotten here.

I can understand why he feels this way though, people in the South don't like Kerry! I live in MS and of the four top guys Dean, Edwards, or Clark can win here. We have paper ballots and sharpie markers, kind of hard to cheat here. People don't like Kerry for all of the reasons Rove will use during campaigning. They don't trust him the most and if it can't be Dean most people here are hoping for Edwards.

i'll vote for ABB but I won't work my ass off for Kerry. If you go through my old posts I am kind of contradicting myself, yeah, I'll still register people to vote, but I won't knock door to door for the man. Sorry, in my opinion he is by far the least appealing, I do like some of his votes for the environment, but their are plenty of others I can't stomach. I just want to scream, "I was counting on you a year ago, and where were you?" I want to scream every single time I hear Lieberman, Kerry, and to a lesser extent Edwards when they continue to spew how the world is safer with SH out of power. Or when Kerry and Lieberman fail to mention the thousands of voters that were turned away at the polls. If the nominee is Dean, Clark or Edwards I can see them demanding paper ballots in the GE, Kerry won't do it, he is a slave to the status quo. Atleast Edwards mentions it, and Diebold's GOP backing.

I want to change this country, make it better for every single person in it. I don't think Kerry can or will do it. He doesn't want to shake up Washington, he doesn't want to change things, and b/c of that I'll vote for him but I will be holding my nose the whole time. Thanks