Latest ARG numbers: Kerry cruising with a 21 point lead

[ludwigb]

and a 3-way fight for 2nd.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[jsw_81]

1. Dean is finished

You could hear it in his voice tonight as he spoke in New Hampshire; he's just going through the motions for his supporters. I wouldn't be surprised if he's already prepared his concession/withdrawal speech.

It's too bad because I really think he could have won the White House had he not made no many silly mistakes. But he's still relatively young, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him run for office again someday, probably for one of Vermont's U.S. Senate seats.

[emulatorloo]

13. Dean is far from finished

but you are right - he's got a long career ahead of him if he doesn't make it. He would make a hell of a Senator if he doesn't get the nom.

[cornermouse]

15. The senate could use a little shaking up.

[CalProf]

18. Dean and Jeffords...

I'd love to have those two be the senators in my state. (CA)

[cornermouse]

2. And only how many more primaries to go?

A little early to break out the champagne, don't you think?

[jsw_81]

4. If Kerry wins New Hampshire, he will be our nominee

Count on it. All this nonsense about Dean and the others fighting a "fifty-state strategy" is baloney. The fact is that most of them (except Edwards and Clark) will drop out and endorse Kerry unless one of them manages an upset in New Hampshire.

[lazarus]

6. That makes sense

Since our last two presidents lost Iowa and New Hampshire, it makes sense that everyone just concede if they don't win Iowa and New Hampshire.

:eyes:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. You're Fighting The Last War....

After Dean finishes third or fourth in New Hampshire this will be a two man race between John Edwards and John Kerry...


There is an outside chance that Wes Clark will be Kerry's main challenger down the road...

Bookmark this post...

And happy trails to the Doctor...


Better luck next time....

[lazarus]

17. lol

Yeah, and 10 days ago Dean had it all sewn up, and the rest of the field needed to drop out and show party unity by supporting him.

"Last war" indeed. So, winning two minor opening primaries negates completely the other 48? Sounds like some Kerry folk want the rest of us to stop fighting this war. Why is that?

[cornermouse]

10. You're right.

All those voters in the other 48 states don't matter. And no one's going to need their vote in November, either.

[kstewart33]

11. I agree, jsw

If Kerry wins big, his momentum will give him the primaries on Feb. 3. As a native Southerner, I do not see any Southern states going to Dean. He has nothing to offer the deep South.

[ModerateMiddle]

16. Edwards could pull off another upset in NH

Boots on the ground in NH ALL say that the Edwards momentum is real. Not 1st place, mind you, cuz I think JK has that pretty well sewn up in NH, but Edwards was nowhere a week ago, and he's the only other one increasing his numbers.

See Iowa.

[sandnsea]

20. I don't think so

He's got to do well in AZ, NM, MI, at least. Very well. And he has to get at least a strong showing in SC. I don't want him "annointed". He needs to earn every vote.

[ludwigb]

3. What's interesting to me

is how the divergent the polls are. But Kerry seems to be going up in every poll. Dean is coming back slowly, along with Edwards. Clark needs to make waves before it's too late.

The next ARG poll should have Dean above 20%, which the media might pick up as momentum. Who knows?

[Lexingtonian]

5. really?

This indie poll funded by our local paper and NBC station tracks very closely with ARG's results.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/polls/tracking_poll/

My impression is that most of the other pollsters, Zogby included, could be out of whack on the day. Dean over 20% is possible but I'd want to see today's polling. The campaign has suspended their advertising in Feb 3 states and someone here is hinting at 60k door-knockers and other efforts. Kerry's people seem to be setting up to fight it with a massive phone bank and their Vietnam veteran-centered grassroots contingent, hoping to get a knockout punch (says Josh Marshall at TPM).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Dean Might Finish Fourth.....

NT

[isbister]

8. Pulling those ads

makes me think Dean's people are seeing something in their polls. He's gone a bit negative on Kerry again, too.

I think they might believe they cannot afford to finish anything other than second. We'll see if they can take a bite out of Kerry's and the undecided numbers over the next couple of days.

[59millionmorons]

14. This poll

According to this poll overall Clark has the hottest momentum.

[mmonk]

12. If Lieberman gathers no traction in NH

does he stay in?

[Zynx]

19. That's not brand spanking new.

Virtually every poll shows Dean doing better than that. Boston Herald, Zogby, Gallup, and Fox show him at 22-25% and climbing,

[Clark4Prez]

21. Where's the Joementum?

5%, five fricking percent? That and it took him two weeks to raise $100,000!

After NH, Joe is no go!