Alright, is Robert Byrd REALLY vulnerable?

[Hippo_Tron]

I'm hearing that he is a big target of the NRSC and that he's polling within a few points of his opponent, but somehow I don't believe it. The man has been getting re-elected to the Senate for some 50 years now, he brings in huge pork and has huge influence, owns half the state of West Virginia and is even pretty socially conservative.

Basically what I'm saying is that no matter what the GOP throws at him, or who they run against him, the BEST they should be able to do is MAYBE Byrd 55% challenger 45%.

[napi21]

1. I don't live in W Va, and I hope we hear from some who do.

I doubt Byrd is very vunerable unless his health prevents him from running. I suspect what you're hearing is RW spin.

[davidinalameda]

2. if Capito runs

then there's a good chance that the Dems can pick up her seat

she's a good little Delay foot soldier but I don't think that Byrd is vulernable

if the seat was to become open, then I might worry but as long as Byrd is running, I'm not

[kevinmc]

3. Senator Appoval Ratings: (UPDATED 6/14/05 TO INCLUDE SUB-SORT)

http://www.surveyusa.com/

[DaveinMD]

4. no

he's an icon in the state. He'll win with 65 percent.

[3waygeek]

5. It depends...

on whether or not WV uses Diebold machines.

[Rowdyboy]

6. He's vulnerable because of his age but it would take a Rethug landslide

and thats not gonna happen in 2006. Off year elections in a president's second term always (except for Clinton) go to the opposition party. He'll win by an easy 10%, probably 20...

[Hippo_Tron]

9. I know it wasn't second term, but 2002 was a big shock...

I'll admit, Bush conveniently still had 70% approval ratings because of 9/11. We've lost two election cycles very badly and many races have been shocking. I'm not underestimating ANYTHING at this point.

[Rowdyboy]

10. So many thing went wrong that year....Torrecelli's crimes, Wellstone's

death, the shadow of 9/11-it was a hideous election. I think 2006 is going to be a different story altogether.

Then, again, I thought John Kerry was a shoe-in. WTF do I know?

[Hippo_Tron]

11. There were times when I thought Bush was dead

I thought Kerry would have no problem taking the Gore states along with Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Missouri, and Colorado and given him a comfortable win with well over 300 electoral votes. The truth is that the GOP is MUCH better at endgame than we are. If you look at the Senate races in 2004... Knowles, Carson, and Bowles were all beating their opponents until the last week or so before election day.
Castor vs Martinez, Mongiardo vs Bunning, and Daschle vs Thune were all dead even until election day. Most polls predicted that there was little chance that Vitter would be able to avoid a runoff (which he probably would have lost), but he did it. The ONLY close one that we got was Salazar. We need to work on overcoming the GOP's last minute desperate attack campaigns.

[KingFlorez]

7. He's not

This is only the Repukes trying to make use all our resources heavily on a safe seat, leaving us open in really marginal states. They're full of tricks, so we need to use caution.

[Internut]

8. The "political oddsmaker" site

gives Byrd 4:1 odds (80% chance) of reelection.

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12