What are our chances

[XemaSab]

of taking back the Senate next year?

How about the House of Representatives?

Where are the tight races?

What can I do to help?

[hfojvt]

1. Dean is working on this

Conrad from ND needs to be re-elected and Dean has started a grass-roots group in ND. Jim No-Talent from Missouri needs to be defeated, and Dean has started a grass-roots group in Missouri. However, other than funding, I am not sure how you can help. Perhaps your local group is doing something. Check with your county party.

It looks tough to me in the Senate, our possible gains are only Santorum (Pa), Talent (Mo), Frist (Tn), Snowe (Me), Chaffee (RI), and Dewine (Oh). Possible losses Bingaman (NM), Dayton (Mn), Nelson (Fl), Nelson (Ne), Conrad (ND, Cantwell (Wa).

Of course, I am shooting sort of in the dark on this Cantwell might be more popular than I know and perhaps NJ, Mi, and De are at risk too. It is hard to see how we can win in Mt, In, Ms, Tx, Ut, Az, Wy, Nv, or Va all of which have incumbent Republicans running. I am not sure which of ours are safe - Kennedy and Clinton almost certainly. Is Kohl safe in Wisconsin? What about Sarabanes in Md or Lieberman in Ct? Is Lieberman facing a primary challenge? Should he, for the good of the party?

Are these things being discussed in more detail elsewhere on DU?

[Internut]

2. There is a "political oddsmaker" web site

that gives current odds on all the upcoming races, updated often.

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12

I took the odds they give for all Senate races and used them to calculate the probabilities of Democratic party gaining or losing Senate seats in 2006. Here are the inputs (I assumed that Jeffords would win, in order to narrow it to D/R only)

The probabilities in the individual Senate races:

Democratic Senate Seats  Win Probability|Republican Senate Seats  Win Probability
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~|~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
California   - Dianne Feinstein  80.0%  | Arizona     - Jon Kyl           75.0%  
Connecticut  - Joe Lieberman     90.0%  | Indiana     - Richard Lugar     88.8%  
Florida      - Bill Nelson       54.6%  | Maine       - Olympia Snowe     87.5%  
Hawaii       - Daniel Akaka      88.8%  | Mississippi - Trent Lott        83.3%  
Maryland     - Open              54.6%  | Missouri    - Jim Talent        57.2%  
Massachusetts- Ted Kennedy       88.8%  | Montana     - Conrad Burns      60.0%  
Michigan     - Debbie Stabenow   54.6%  | Nevada      - John Ensign       66.6%  
Minnesota    - Open              50.0%  | Ohio        - Mike DeWine       60.0%  
Nebraska     - Ben Nelson        52.6%  | Pennsylvania- Rick Santorum     52.7%  
New Jersey   - Open?             60.0%  | Rhode Island- Lincoln Chaffee   51.7%  
New Mexico   - Jeff Bingaman     60.0%  | Tennessee   - Open              51.7%  
New York     - Hillary Clinton   75.0%  | Texas       - K. B. Hutchinson  66.6%  
North Dakota - Kent Conrad       60.0%  | Utah        - Orrin Hatch       87.5%  
Tennessee    - Open              60.0%  | Virginia    - George Allen      75.0%  
Washington   - Maria Cantwell    52.6%  | Wyoming     - Craig Thomas      88.8%  
West Virginia- Robert Byrd       80.0%  | 
Wisconsin    - Herb Kohl         70.0%  | 

Here are the outputs:

  Probabilities of gaining seats:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  Democrats         |    Republicans
# of  |             | # of  |
seats | Probability | seats | Probability
gain  |  (in %)     | gain  |  (in %)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
 9+   |    0.0      |  9+   |     0.2
 8+   |    0.0      |  8+   |     0.6
 7+   |    0.1      |  7+   |     1.7
 6+   |    0.3      |  6+   |     4.3
 5+   |    1.1      |  5+   |     9.4
 4+   |    3.0      |  4+   |     18.0
 3+   |    6.9      |  3+   |     30.3
 2+   |    14.0     |  2+   |     45.4
 1+   |    24.8     |  1+   |     61.1
      |             |
 0    |    14.1     |  0    |     14.1

So, the probability of Democratic Party taking the Senate next year, according to the individual race odds from that Web site, is 1.1%. (or, if you feel that Democrats need 51 seats in the Senate to "take it", the probability is 0.3%).

[XemaSab]

3. Ouch

What about the house?

[Internut]

6. I would do the house, but gathering the odds data

from the Faucheux web site for every house seat would take forever...

[XemaSab]

7. I hear ya

I just want to know what the chances are of getting enough people in there who would go for impeachment.

Well, the shrub's at 42% now, and there's still a long, long ways to the bottom. We'll see what the climate looks like next year.

[Yupster]

4. Interesting odds

I don't think the favorites are favorite enough in general.

For instance, Hillary is at 75 % which means that if her race was one four times, she'd lose once. I think 95 % would be more accurate. I would take the 3x1 bet in a heartbeat and put up $ 3,000 to win $ 1,000 more.

I'd also bet on Ted Kennedy at 9x1. i think it should be more like 99x1.

Same with Hatch in Utah.

Texas is the most ridiculous at Hutchison 2x1. I think that should be more like 19x1.

[Internut]

5. I wish the bookies would get into

the action and give "live" odds, but it's probably too early for that... When they do, I will recalc the probabilities and post them.

[election_2004]

8. Probably a 2-3 seat net gain....

...would be most realistic.

I think the key races should be:

Casey to defeat Santorum in Pennsylvania

Tester/McGrath to defeat Burns in Montana

Carnahan to defeat Talent in Missouri

Klobuchar/Wetterling to defeat Mark Kennedy (a real wingnut) in Minnesota