Wow. SC ARG poll...Edwards 21% and Kerry 17%.

[blm]

Didn't catch the numbers for the others. Anyone see the full chart?

[Guaranteed]

1. Sharpton was at 15%

LOL he's getting back in it. Dean at 9%.

[WI_DEM]

4. what happens in NH on Tuesday will influence things

quite a bit. I'm surprised Dean is as strong as he is still in SC and a strong second or surprise win in NH will certainly help his campaign. I have a feeling though that Edwards will beat Clark for third which will give Edwards even more momentum in SC.

[AP]

8. Doubt it. Why would SC react more strongly to NH outcome than, say, IA

at this point?

[HazMat]

15. Combined effect

If JK wins NH it would 2 wins in a row -- 2 Kerry media blitzes. I don't have the hard data, but I would think there've been very few (if any) candidates (of either party) to win both IA and NH and not get the nomination.

[AP]

18. I wonder if SC thinks of themselves as the people with power

to reverse whatever trend they see coming out of NH?

Coming in first in NH might have the opposite of the intended effect. SC'ians might thing, 'no, we're the kingmakers.'

I also think black voters are going to think there's no reason that they should be bound by whatever mostly white IA and NH tells them they should be accepting.

[jenk]

2. not surprising, but I hope Howard can pass Sharpton

because that would be just embarassing, you'd think the voters there would know better.

[spooky3]

12. Sharpton has spent tons of time campaigning there.

[Renew Deal]

3. I can't find it on their site but...

Edwards is very dangerous if he wins SC.

[AP]

9. Obviously, "dangerous" isn't the word I'd use...

:)

[kstewart33]

5. Wow, what a great battle that would be

Kerry and Edwards, two great candidates. I'd love to see that.

[lastknowngood]

6. Red state dosn't matter

n/t

[OKNancy]

7. Oh it matters quite a bit

it's a DEMOCRATIC primary.

[AP]

10. It really really matters.

For the same reason red states matter in GE, they matter in primary. They get just as much say in who the nominee is.

Furthermore, any Democrat has the same chance of winning MA, NY and CA. Not every Dem has a chance of winning SD, GA, LA, Miss, MO, etc, etc.

If you want to force Bush to spend money and divide energies, rather than live out of the governors mansion in Cal for most of the fall, and who has a real chance of winning NC or FL or Ark., then you better consider hard nominating candidates who are competitive in the red states.

[curse10]

11. Actually, it does

a red state might just turn to blue with the right candidate...

[HazMat]

16. Not so much that it'll turn blue

but we must threaten in the red-leaning states in order to force Bush to spend money, to keep him from trying to contest some of our states.

[_Jumper_]

13. Link?

n/t

[tryanhas]

14. Well, Edwards is going to win South Carolina going away

Especially after he finishes a surprise second in NH.

McCain Republicans just love Edwards. I know you all watch C-Span, and they called in after debates saying how he is the only Democratic Candidate that they will vote for and they hope that they get the chance to.

Well, McCain ran away with NH, and if Edwards connects with those Independent people the way that McCain did, he could surprise.

Independents and same day registers in NH are going to be the difference maker, and they are going to help Edwards...

[DjTj]

17. Sharpton 15%, Clark 14%, Dean 9%, ...

...anybody catch the rest?

[AP]

19. Doesnt' ARG weight black voters at 39% (ie, low)?

And doesn't Edwards have stronger support among black voters than the rest?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. Excellent news.

[AlFrankenFan]

21. Doesn't surprise me

but it also makes me happy :)