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The most interesting segment of Sunday's interview with Donald Rumsfeld regarded Vice President Cheney's constroversial statement last month that the Iraq insurgency was in the "last throes." It took some time, but ultimately, if you weed through a long question and answer, it would appear Rumsfeld contradicts Cheney:
RUSSERT: I think the concern that many people have is that if we were wrong or misjudged that, are we making some other misjudgments now? This is how The Washington Times reported in exchange before the hearings.
" Levin asked whether the general thought the insurgency was in its `last throes,' as Mr. Cheney said ... last month. `In terms of the overall strength of the insurgency, I'd say it was the same as it was' six months ago, Gen. Abizaid replied." For the sake of clarity for the American people, what about this insurgency?
Is it in its last throes or is it alive and well and vibrant and strong as it was six months ago?
RUMSFELD: Well, there are various ways to measure it. If you measure the number of incidents, it's gone up during the election period and now it's back down. If you look at lethality of those instances, it's up. Now, what does that mean? Does it mean that the insurgency's stronger? Is it in its last throes? The last throes could be violence, as you well know from a dictionary standpoint. ...
(Let me interrupt to point out that "throes" can be defined as violent. But Cheney said "last throes," which even his defenders took to mean a last thrust for the insurgency. Cheney, in a confusing effort to clarify his earlier comments, seemed to play bait-and-switch with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Thursday, describing "throes" even as he continued to say "last throes." Rumsfeld did the same when answering Russert's question.)
Rumsfeld continued to Russert:
... I think the way to think of it is that the insurgents are foreigners in some significant number. They are attacking Iraqis and killing them. They are opposing an elected Iraqi government. They know they have a great deal to lose. If they lose this and if Iraq becomes a constitutional representative system in the middle of the Middle East, the effect on the terrorists will be devastating. So they are going to fight very hard. And you saw that when the elections -- they wanted to disrupt those elections on January 30th and so the peak went way up in violence. They're going to feel the same way about the constitution and the elections coming up in December. So I would anticipate you're going to see an escalation of violence between now and the December elections.
(In other words, the insurgents want to win, too.)
RUSSERT: But you wouldn't say the insurgency is on its last legs?
RUMSFELD: Well, if you are successful in having a constitution and having another election under the new constitution, that will have an effect on the Iraqi people. The Iraqi people will see that the people opposing that don't have the interest of Iraq in mind. They have the interests of the violent extremists. And will that hurt the insurgency? I believe it will. I think there's no question but that if we get through this period we will see that the Iraqi security forces will be stronger. They're very well respected today by the population in Iraq, and we will have more and more of an Iraqi face on this, less of an occupation face, which is a good thing. And over time -- I mean, foreign troops are not going to beat the insurgency. It's going be the Iraqi people that are going to beat the insurgency and Iraqi security forces. That's just the nature of an insurgency and it may take time, but our task is to get the Iraqi security forces sufficiently capable that that process of defeating the insurgency by the Iraqi people can take place.
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In other words, no, the insurgency is not on its "last legs," which, in every dictionary but the one being used by Cheney and Rumsfeld, means the insurgency is not in its "last throes." Although it will be, over time, if several other things go right first.
It was sadly, one of the few answers Russert couldn't have predicted from earlier Rumsfeld statements.
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To read more on this topic, go to Journalists Against Bush's B.S. (JABBS)
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