I think there remains a big debate, for example in Texas, of whether abstinence-only policies have lead to increased abortion rates. I have read some info that would lead one to that conclusion (had to argue this point on another board recently, as it related to Texas, specifically). I do not have links to a specific research study or such that concludes that for Texas abstinence-only = increased abortions, but here are some links that might provide you with some points, or something at least, to argue with:
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"The abstinence only program has the goal of reducing teen pregnancies and reducing STDs. The Texas program has shown little success in achieving its goal and may even cause more pregnancies and incidents of STDs. In 1998, Texas registered 123 pregnancies per 1,000 women age 15-19. In 1997, Texas ranked 9th in the U.S. in reported cases of Chlamydia (WHFPT, 2002). The problem is exemplified by the fact that those teens that 'pledge' to be abstinent until marriage delay sex only for a matter of months, and when they do choose to have sex they tend to do so without protection (Trubo, 2002)."
http://www.watchblog.com/republicans/archives/000704.html_____________________________________________________
More on Texas debate:
Statistics:
http://www.tdh.state.tx.us/chs/vstat/latest/nabort.htm______________________________________________________
Also, while the argument of nationwide abortion rates increasing under Bush has been refuted, this is a short article about that specific issue, which has an explanation on the matter. It seems to explain it well:
http://www.abpnews.com/news/news_detail.cfm?NEWS_ID=722"WASHINGTON (ABP) -- A controversial study suggesting the abortion rate has increased since President Bush took office was off the mark, its author now admits. But he also says new figures vindicate some of his contentions.
A recent study of the abortion rates in several states since President Bush took office revealed figures slightly different from those seminary professor Glen Stassen found in a study of a smaller number of states last fall.
Stassen, a Christian-ethics professor at Fuller Theological Seminary near Los Angeles, originally extrapolated data from 16 states to suggest the national abortion rate has risen slightly since Bush took office in 2001 after falling for several years under his predecessors.
Prominent Democrats have cited Stassen's figures as recently as mid-May in criticizing Bush. Partially in response, the Alan Guttmacher Institute released its own study of abortion rates May 18. The group, affiliated with Planned Parenthood, tracks abortion statistics, which are only released every 10 years on the national level.
The Guttmacher study found that, while the abortion rate hasn't increased under Bush, it also has declined more slowly under his presidency than under predecessor Bill Clinton, who unlike Bush favors abortion rights. "