HYPOTHETICAL RACE: HILLARY VS DEAN

[liberalfriend]

yes I know that Dean has said he won't run and I know that Hillary is not the first choice of most people on this forum (big) BUT this is purely speculation. Lets look at the pluses and minuses of each:

Hillary

Pros

She already has a big name, Dean may be well known but Hillary is miles ahead of him in notoriety

She has a proven Washington track record, which means big support from the big names (you have to have that on a national campaign)

She has the entire state of New York in her corner, most everyone there is pretty pleased with what she has done for them in the senate and it, at this point, doesn't seem like she'll have a tough time winning re-election.

Cons

The right HATES her, and I don't mean like we hate Bush or disagree with his policies. If you thought that democrats where able to unify over distaste of Bush, anti-Hillary-ism will blow that away.

She is part of a presidency that at this point has been signed of in the press as one rock and marred by scandal and sexual promiscuity. That can't help her with women voters.

I believe that the people that are on this forum probably make up a decent representation of the active base of the democratic party, and if what I see is any indication, the base is not a fan of her. You simply can't run a national campaign while at the same time being terrified that your base is going to abandon you.

Howard Dean:

Pro

Long experience as governor. History has shown us that the strongest candidates are almost always governors. To most people a state is simply a micro version of the country as a whole. (Though that really isn't true, but hell most people voted for Bush!)

Outspoken speaker (superior to Hillary I feel), a major plus when you look at the fact that a speeches are a crucial part of a campaign. Also in terms of developing a strong grassroots campaign he has shown that it is possible to accomplish as well as make it very strong as well.

He is strong in character, i.e. he won't back down from his beliefs and he fights for what he believes in. Hillary just won't do that I think, while someone like Dean given enough base support early on can really get a major ground swell going.

Cons:

Outspoken speaker: YYAAAAARRGGGGHH. 'nuff said. It killed him and continues to be of major concern to "mainstream" democrats

He doesn't have the support of the higher more connected establishment democrats, that means less support and in the face of a republican campaign you need all the help you can get

The last con is more rhetorical. Do his (and our views) really fit with the rest of the american people? He is probably the greatest voice to represent this forum but does it jive with the rest of the country? I'm not sure so I put it down in the cons simply because it is cause for concern.

So there you have it, the pros and cons of each hypothetical candidate. I do not profess to have all of them down or even to have conveyed them as accurately as possible, I simply am curious to see what everyone here feels about that potential match-up. If you do respond do keep in mind that this would obviously apply strictly to the primaries. (Unless for some reason Hillary jumps to the republican party which I just don't see happening anytime soon)

[AntiCoup2K4]

1. Actually, this race might be the best thing possible.

It would settle once and for all whether the majority of Democrats want to move forward into the future, or stick with the same corporatist appeasement horseshit that has been killing us for the last decade.

Hopefully Dean would walk away the clear winner. If not, order the tombstone for the party.

[derby378]

2. More cons

Clinton

* Member of the DLC. Not too many DUers are happy with the DLC, especially after they allowed Priscilla Owen to be placed on the 5th Circuit Court.

* A bit wooden in her speech delivery. Unable to relax and be herself on the podium.

Dean

* DLC hates him. They'll probably sabotage him every chance they get, even if it means throwing the election to the GOP.

* Needs to get his own team in gear. Part of the reason his campaign fizzled in 2004 was he was forced into blowing all his cash in Iowa and New Hampshire with minimal returns.

[liberalfriend]

5. i agree with your assesment

Hillary is terrible when speaking in large crowds, to me the more animated she gets the more (forgive me here) bitchy she seems. You know? the voice gets more nasal and the volume goes up but there is still no real passion just a little anger, and I don't think we want that perception.

[lvx35]

3. Why Dean will bring conservative voters in.

The issue about bring voters from the right is not about swinging to the right on policies, but giving them a perception that we are strong, we hold true to our traditions, stick to our guns, and don't give up. This is a powerful pro for Dean, he looks more conservative becase he DOES fight, becase he DOES say things that aren't politically correct, and he DOES NOT give a damn. What the "mainstream" democrats who are worried about Dean being outspoken need to realize is that conservatives hate them because they are weak, not because they are offensive...And that perception will taint Hillary untill she looks at Dean and Bush both and starts taking lessons on how to look strong.

[liberalfriend]

6. no I don't think that will do it

I don't like the use of the word perception. Perception does not denote reality and that can kill you in a campaign. Plus a conservative will in no way vote for Dean looks strong or acts tough. They want someone who will represent their values just like we do. Dean will not reconcile certain values in order to curry favor with the moderate conservatives. What he needs to do (and is doing) is strengthen the base. Compared to republicans our base is much smaller I think, yet it is more dedicated. If Dean can whip enough people into believing in the liberal cause he will make serious headway with average americans

[lvx35]

30. Good point on the base.

Yeah, I agree with the significance of the base, and I do love that about Dean...I'm just not so sure that firing up the base and bringing in middle of the road voters are so different at this point. I think if Dean fuels the base with a sense of tradition, pride, moral conviction and permanence its going to start looking more tempting to some conservatives.

[Guaranteed]

7. Such an unbelievably outstanding post.

Dead to rights. You've got the whole thing nailed.

I met Democrats canvassing for Kerry in Florida that wouldn't vote for him simply because they didn't trust him.

This is so, so important nowadays. The value of leadership can not be overestimated.

[liberalfriend]

8. wow thanks

'priciate the compliment.

[Guaranteed]

12. I was responding to lvx, there,

but yours was great, too. You can see my response below.

[liberalfriend]

14. d'oh

[lvx35]

32. Agreed.

Conservatives are driven by emotions and values more than us, and by gut feelings and character. They ask how a guy who caves in to pressure from republicans so easily will be able to lead America to make a stand against a ruthless enemy in a time of war...So we need to gain their trust, by staying true to ourselves and what we believe in, and standing by it.

[msongs]

4. dean is out pumping up dems/progressive in red states, hillary is ?

being a senator.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/liberaltshirts.htm

[The Jacobin]

9. Neither

They are both great at raising money.

So hitch that money making wagon to those two horses and let all the other candidates ride them to victory.

[NMDemDist2]

10. must we? do we really have to?? can't we just wait to bash Chimpy's

idea for a SCOTUS nominee??

:banghead:

[Guaranteed]

11. Great post.

And I think the issue that you addressed is THE essence of the struggle within the Democratic Party today.

As far as your questions about Dean's views being acceptable to the mainstream, I am more than confident that they are. Dean is not an idealogue. He advocates common sense- truly. He IS a centrist, ultimately, with progressive, populist tendencies. He wants what is best for the people, but not to the point of being unrealistic. And, like you said, he has a solid, trustworthy character. When people watch him, they understand his sincerity, and they admire his courage.

IMO- and this is just MY opinion- Dean is the most valuable asset in our party right now. We've been whittled down to nearly nothing, from both the left and the right. Dean has been one of the EXTREMELY few that has been able to articulate practical but progressive positions and ideas, *while maintaining his integrity,* on a national level.

It's an enigma- while it's unbelievable that the man, with the shape that our party and country are in, has been able to come as far as he has, it's just as unbelievable that he hasn't just taken over the party entirely- IF he HASN'T!- and been elected president straight off already.

The man is a truly great figure in these times.

But you wouldn't know it seeing him on the street, taking the subway or riding coach.

He's just amazing.

[liberalfriend]

13. while I may tip my cards in this regard I must concur

Dean's ability to get our message out has been phenomenal so far. I only expect more great things from him in the future.

[Guaranteed]

15. Me too.

He will only get stronger, through it all.

[aspberger]

31. You can't keep Dean down

Dean was savaged by the press, rejected by his own party, and yet fought back with indefatigable resolve. His determination and passion are an inspiration to us all. His intellect and ability to verbally frame the issues are his strongest point. If his runs again his campaign theme should be "Hit Me with Your Best Shot". While I personally hope Hillary runs, if Dean gets the nomination, I'll have his back.

[WI_DEM]

16. I was for Dean in '04, wanted him as chairman

and think he is doing a great job in that capacity--but I would give anything if he were the nominee in '08--even though he has made clear that he is not going to seek that job. He could be the VP nominee though.

[quinnox]

17. They will most likely be on the same team!

Dean is going to be cheerleading whoever the Dem nominee is and Hillary Clinton may well be the one if she runs, which looks probable.

[liberalfriend]

18. your right I think

thats what I imagine will happen, the question is (and we should be on the look out for this) is how much of a role Dean gets in her campaign. If she shuns him that will be a serious sign of what is to come. (IMHO)

[Guaranteed]

19. LOL if she shuns him, she's in deep shit.

Dean supporters are the most sought-after supporters of the Democratic Party.

[quinnox]

20. I doubt she would shun Dean

she is a really smart one and she knows Dean has a strong connection to the activists and she will embrace Dean because of that I would think.

[liberalfriend]

21. see i think that..

the DLC are terrified of their base. We won't let them get their way when it comes to innerloop beltway politics. To me it is plainly obvious that she really really really did not want Dean to be the Chairman of the DNC and I think she views him as potential baggage for her shot at the top spot.

[quinnox]

22. Time will tell

First Hillary Clinton has to declare she is running and then she would have to win the nomination. While my opinion is it will happen my crystal ball isn't better than anyone elses and maybe things will go differently.

[liberalfriend]

24. my magic 8 ball however

keeps telling me that hillary will when the nomination. Everytime I ask , Oh great and Wise magic 8 ball will Hillary be president?" it always says Yes. Except for the time it ordered me to kill my neighbors dog. Does that ever happen to your magic 8 ball?

[quinnox]

25. heh

[Guaranteed]

27. Stick around DU awhile longer.

The information you've been given might turn out to be mistaken.

[liberalfriend]

40. bu-bu-but the 8 ball....

[Guaranteed]

26. Then they'll lose.

And you'd think they'd know that by now.

[wyldwolf]

28. why?

Rank and file Democrats (the base) want the party to take more moderate stances. Why would the DLC be afraid of that?

To me it is plainly obvious that she really really really did not want Dean to be the Chairman of the DNC

Why is that obvious to you? Did she say that?

[Guaranteed]

33. More moderate than what?

More moderate than voting for tax cuts for rich people and pointless wars?

[wyldwolf]

35. more moderate than what was percieved...

..Howard Dean being.

Gallup and Pew polling on Dean supporters vs. other Democrats.

Not my data. Just reporting it, sir.

[Guaranteed]

36. So you understand the reality and disagree with them.

That's good to hear.

[wyldwolf]

37. what reality is that?

I disagree that Dean was a leftwinger - but many of his supporters contended he was and some still do.

God, I remember the primaries where to point out that Dean was a centrist was grounds to be tarred and feathered.

The reality of Dean ISN'T what the so-called "progressives" want or what he was perceived to be but, ironically, is what the rank-and-file want. So, why would the DLC be afraid of that?

[Imagevision]

23. Did Dean attempt to help Conyers with Ohio election fraud investigation?

[JHBowden]

29. Clinton would be preferable.

Politically, Dean is extremely error-prone, and his aggressive demeanor makes many erroneously believe on both sides of the spectrum that he's hard left.

Senator Clinton is calculating and ruthless and would be a better candidate in that regard. I'm not saying Clinton is the best candidate, but she is much better than Dean, who now is damaged goods. Ideologically I don't see how she'd be much different than her husband.

[Guaranteed]

34. I see it as totally the opposite.

I see Dean as the one who has maintained his integrity, while Clinton is publically pretty well known to be a triangulator.

[liberalfriend]

41. ah ah ah triangulation is a bad word

I think she has moved more to the middle because she feels that the base is too small to allow her to win, I whole heartedly disagree with that but I think that is what the DLC leadership and she feels. While I do agree that Dean has had much more integrity than Hillary, never forget this is politics and politicians are concerned with votes more than anything else and they will do anything needed to get it. Because of that I can understand why Hillary does things like she does but in terms of just being a human being I find it sad that she is willing to trade that integrity to get ahead.

[Capn Sunshine]

38. Well thought out post BUT

Shouldn't and couldn't the energy on such speculation be spent on a VERY REAL issue of the 2006 election?

[lojasmo]

39. Clinton will be a disaster in the generals....if she wins the nomination

I certainly won't vote for her....and I know LOTS of swing voters, and even several other democrats who won't.